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Isolated storms/heavy rain this afternoon


earthlight

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Weak instability axis and the potential for a few storms later today with a cold front. The warm sector will push north by 21z today with temperatures likely spiking into the 70's. 850 temperatures near 12 C with a stiff southwest wind. We'll have some clouds over the next few hrs but the NAM shows the surge well later today.

A 5% / See Text from SPC seems fair.

day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif

...MID ATLANTIC INTO OH VALLEY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT

CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NY/PA INTO SOUTHERN IND. EARLY VISIBLE

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE

FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. MEANWHILE...

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT 50S

DEWPOINTS OVER THE TN VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE END

RESULT WILL BE AN AXIS OF MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY EXTENDING

FROM CENTRAL PA/VA INTO TN/KY. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER NY/PA

WILL BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AND INTENSIFY LATER TODAY. STEEP

LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUFFICIENT CAPE...AND RATHER STRONG LOW/MID

LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE

HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOON

AFTER SUNSET.

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Some strong t-storms have already moving over CT now. Nickel size hail reportl:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1145 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

CTZ005>007-010-NYZ068-281630-

NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW

HAVEN-PUTNAM-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-

1145 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FAIRFIELD...MIDDLESEX...NEW HAVEN

AND PUTNAM COUNTIES...

AT 1139 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PAWLING...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE...WINDS

UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. NICKEL

SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND WAS REPORTED AT HOPEWELL JUNCTION AT

1135 AM.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN

HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE

TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4165 7252 4125 7268 4143 7368 4152 7365

4153 7353 4161 7353 4161 7348 4150 7343

4152 7339 4148 7333 4151 7331 4152 7317

4155 7317 4163 7302 4163 7293 4157 7294

4155 7286 4158 7276 4163 7271

$$

SEARS

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Hail covered the ground in Fishkill, up to nickel size in Hopewell Junction, NY with that nasty cell moving near Danbury now...strong winds are aloft and likely not mixing to the ground because of the stability..However, frequent lightning and maybe some quarters in the cell now based off the diff reflectivity.

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I really wasn't expecting much today. But anyone who got that storm in Somerset/Union and into SI likely picked up a bit more.

You're right. I'm by the RAC in Piscatway and got exactly .20 and got hail. New Brunswick is probably a mile away from my house. I'm surprised they only got .02.

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