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Severe Potential Thursday 3/29/2012


Jim Martin

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

854 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

KSC073-290230-

/O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120329T0230Z/

GREENWOOD KS-

854 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN GREENWOOD

COUNTY UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 849 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LARGE FUNNEL

CLOUD NEAR HILLTOP OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MADISON. A TORNADO MAY

DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

MADISON...OR 22 MILES NORTHEAST OF EUREKA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM ALSO HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL

SIZE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

902 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

KSC073-290230-

/O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120329T0230Z/

GREENWOOD KS-

902 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN GREENWOOD

COUNTY UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 857 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LARGE FUNNEL

CLOUD NEAR HILLTOP. TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS ALSO REPORTED SOFTBALL

SIZED HAIL OCCURRING IN MADISON. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MADISON...OR 22 MILES SOUTH OF

EMPORIA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY.

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905

NWUS53 KICT 290150

LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

850 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0850 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 SE MADISON 38.07N 96.06W

03/28/2012 GREENWOOD KS TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE WELL DEVELOPED FUNNEL CLOUD.

BDK

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Nice OFB just south of I-70 in Kansas at the time I write, Thursday morning. This is separate from the synoptic boundary up in Iowa with that dry east flow. I always liked these setups on the OFB. Still some questions with ongoing rain in NW Missouri, but imagine the OFB will lift north this afternoon. The lifting OFB and heating should promote a nice rate of destabilization in and around a triangle from MHK to STJ to LNK. I often prefer rate of destabilization over absolute instability. Believe the morning NAM is capping things too long - It kind of punts. Short wave looks to come out late in the day, per vapor, but still with a little more vertical shear than yesterday afternoon. Low level shear should be robust on the retreating OFB. Chasers take care to avoid the hail; probably another one of those days. Still a slight risk day, high-end slight on the hail. Maybe a small 10% tornado when afternoon OFB position is more certain? Chasers good luck and be safe.

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I'm likely about to pull out of Dallas and up Interstate 35 to Northern Oklahoma. I'm not totally confident convection will fire at all this evening, but my goal is to get lightning photography. The overall low shear values along with slow storm motion should allow me to opportunity for some lightning photography between about 8 PM and 12 AM this evening.

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