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Early April Winter Pattern Likely


CoastalWx

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Yeah I'm going to wait until tomorrow morning before writing it off completely.

Euro ensembles arent as exicted for 4/6 now either...still not bad but not the more robust signal we saw yesterday...not that it means a whole lot anyway since we have seen the ensembles give a robust signal on short notice and then lose it just as quick...very tough on the models this pattern is, but we knew that would be the case.

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Euro ensembles arent as exicted for 4/6 now either...still not bad but not the more robust signal we saw yesterday...not that it means a whole lot anyway since we have seen the ensembles give a robust signal on short notice and then lose it just as quick...very tough on the models this pattern is, but we knew that would be the case.

The models have been on and off quite a bit lately in the day 7 and beyond time frame. I hope this weekend can work out, but I'm losing faith in that. We'll see what guidance does tonight.

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What are you thinking currently? Whiff or accum snows pike south?

I'm leaning toward a whiff...but the guidance is jumping a lot. Euro has been the most inconsistent on this threat so I'm pretty uncertain right now. I wish I wasn't.

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I'm leaning toward a whiff...but the guidance is jumping a lot. Euro has been the most inconsistent on this threat so I'm pretty uncertain right now. I wish I wasn't.

Do you remember that early April storm 4-5 yrs ago when I had like 5.5 and you had virga? I don't remember what year..but it was how i beat you for the total snowfall that year. Is this setup similiar?

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Do you remember that early April storm 4-5 yrs ago when I had like 5.5 and you had virga? I don't remember what year..but it was how i beat you for the total snowfall that year. Is this setup similiar?

That was April 2006...and no this setup is not similar...that was a big ULL over us and the precip was nearly convective...you got into a thin band for a few hours, basically like snow squalls...i got 1.5" from that.

The event with virga you are thinking of was 3/2/06...this setup actually isnt all that different from that one...but its not quite the same either.

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That was April 2006...and no this setup is not similar...that was a big ULL over us and the precip was nearly convective...you got into a thin band for a few hours, basically like snow squalls...i got 1.5" from that.

The event with virga you are thinking of was 3/2/06...this setup actually isnt all that different from that one...but its not quite the same either.

I remember you posting about a virga storm and how upset you were.

I do recall that 1.5 from snow squalls. It plastered to everything. there also was another snowstorm like 1-2 days after that where it snowed in NYC and the Yanks were playing the Twins

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Not April yet but hopefully our third measurable snowfall this week will happen tonight. Maine will do better but here's the zone forecast for this area:

Tonight

Rain or snow showers likely. Total snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

NWS point and click has 2-4" for the high terrain but a D-2" will do it in the valleys.

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Not April yet but hopefully our third measurable snowfall this week will happen tonight. Maine will do better but here's the zone forecast for this area:

Tonight

It snows more here than anywhere in Southern New England. Lows that are colder than SNE. Northwest winds higher than SNE. Chance of a action ski shot 90 percent.

NWS point and click has upslope high terrain but a downslope in the valleys.

Translated for you..

Hoping for an epic TOR outbreak in the plains Monday.

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nice little warm surge pushing in here right now up to 57, 63 at hpn 67 nyc, 69 ewr and teterboro, and 61 in farmingdale............nam did well with this warm push well advertised

Yeah all models had it pushing into NYC and then sort of halting or slowing down.

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