Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 NAM looks good for CT...Euro was close to being decent but weakened a bit too much. Yeah, 18z bumped north a click or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Nice bump N on the nam...gets a period of 10dbz light snow to mby by noon Saturday. FWIW 15z srefs are slightly N as well and looks decent for western and southern portions of CT...looks to weaken for eastern portions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 The shifting of guidance from run to run is still pretty high given the time frame of 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 Odds are that it's probably fairly dry up this way, but it's close. Would be a shame if we miss it, because the pattern could support snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Congrats LL , well that will ruin his 60's for Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 The shifting of guidance from run to run is still pretty high given the time frame of 3 days. Yeah I'm going to wait until tomorrow morning before writing it off completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 NAM looks good for CT...Euro was close to being decent but weakened a bit too much. What are you thinking currently? Whiff or accum snows pike south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Yeah I'm going to wait until tomorrow morning before writing it off completely. Euro ensembles arent as exicted for 4/6 now either...still not bad but not the more robust signal we saw yesterday...not that it means a whole lot anyway since we have seen the ensembles give a robust signal on short notice and then lose it just as quick...very tough on the models this pattern is, but we knew that would be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 Euro ensembles arent as exicted for 4/6 now either...still not bad but not the more robust signal we saw yesterday...not that it means a whole lot anyway since we have seen the ensembles give a robust signal on short notice and then lose it just as quick...very tough on the models this pattern is, but we knew that would be the case. The models have been on and off quite a bit lately in the day 7 and beyond time frame. I hope this weekend can work out, but I'm losing faith in that. We'll see what guidance does tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 It's funny watching all the news casts say 50s "with rain south" when really its 50s with snow south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 What are you thinking currently? Whiff or accum snows pike south? I'm leaning toward a whiff...but the guidance is jumping a lot. Euro has been the most inconsistent on this threat so I'm pretty uncertain right now. I wish I wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Congrats LL , well that will ruin his 60's for Sat I am hoping for 6 inches of snow, its been a very cold March. xxx cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 18Z NAM shows how spring snow is had for CT while BOS is whiffed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I'm leaning toward a whiff...but the guidance is jumping a lot. Euro has been the most inconsistent on this threat so I'm pretty uncertain right now. I wish I wasn't. Do you remember that early April storm 4-5 yrs ago when I had like 5.5 and you had virga? I don't remember what year..but it was how i beat you for the total snowfall that year. Is this setup similiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Do you remember that early April storm 4-5 yrs ago when I had like 5.5 and you had virga? I don't remember what year..but it was how i beat you for the total snowfall that year. Is this setup similiar? That was April 2006...and no this setup is not similar...that was a big ULL over us and the precip was nearly convective...you got into a thin band for a few hours, basically like snow squalls...i got 1.5" from that. The event with virga you are thinking of was 3/2/06...this setup actually isnt all that different from that one...but its not quite the same either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 18z GFS is pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 That was April 2006...and no this setup is not similar...that was a big ULL over us and the precip was nearly convective...you got into a thin band for a few hours, basically like snow squalls...i got 1.5" from that. The event with virga you are thinking of was 3/2/06...this setup actually isnt all that different from that one...but its not quite the same either. I remember you posting about a virga storm and how upset you were. I do recall that 1.5 from snow squalls. It plastered to everything. there also was another snowstorm like 1-2 days after that where it snowed in NYC and the Yanks were playing the Twins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 18z GFS is pretty far south. Yeah it is, and warm where the precip does fall, if snow is not going to happen hopefully this gets shunted way south so we can have sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 No snow for anyone on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 No snow for anyone on the gfs. I'm glad it's that POS.. NAM was nice and a good bumpity bump north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I'm glad it's that POS.. NAM was nice and a good bumpity bump north Arent you worried about the Euro? Gotta give it props Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 I'm glad it's that POS.. NAM was nice and a good bumpity bump north Whiffarooski. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Hopefully the GFS is correct early next week, looks like a very warm period mon tue and wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Not April yet but hopefully our third measurable snowfall this week will happen tonight. Maine will do better but here's the zone forecast for this area: Tonight Rain or snow showers likely. Total snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. NWS point and click has 2-4" for the high terrain but a D-2" will do it in the valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 Models are everywhere early next week. Like 45 or 85..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Models are everywhere early next week. Like 45 or 85..lol. Whichever one makes more people miserable will win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Not April yet but hopefully our third measurable snowfall this week will happen tonight. Maine will do better but here's the zone forecast for this area: Tonight It snows more here than anywhere in Southern New England. Lows that are colder than SNE. Northwest winds higher than SNE. Chance of a action ski shot 90 percent. NWS point and click has upslope high terrain but a downslope in the valleys. Translated for you.. Hoping for an epic TOR outbreak in the plains Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Models are everywhere early next week. Like 45 or 85..lol. nice little warm surge pushing in here right now up to 57, 63 at hpn 67 nyc, 69 ewr and teterboro, and 61 in farmingdale............nam did well with this warm push well advertised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 nice little warm surge pushing in here right now up to 57, 63 at hpn 67 nyc, 69 ewr and teterboro, and 61 in farmingdale............nam did well with this warm push well advertised Yeah all models had it pushing into NYC and then sort of halting or slowing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 nice little warm surge pushing in here right now up to 57, 63 at hpn 67 nyc, 69 ewr and teterboro, and 61 in farmingdale............nam did well with this warm push well advertised Pretty good S wind here, once the sun came out around 2:30ish, the temp shot up very fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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