Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 nice thermal gradient early next week...16C 850s into SW PA and 0C still over BOS that'll try and lock in until June 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 that'll try and lock in until June 10 Nape You Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Big severe week in general on the Euro... very warm and decent pre-dry line theta e advection into the N TX eastern OK/KS then gets kissed by screaming mid level jet max and rapidly falling temperature above the boundary layer. That has cap-recession ba-boomba written all over it... I could see 30 discrete tor producing hornet stings cutting up the country side on radar next Monday afternoon. The same system would weaken some, but still probably produce severe up into IN/OH and even PA and perhaps New England through D7 per this solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 No more day 8 bomb and winter pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 No more day 8 bomb and winter pattern? Look at the goofus in the long range. 850s near -20C in NNE at some points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Look at the goofus in the long range. 850s near -20C in NNE at some points. Yeah I saw. If it snows, I'm all for it. If it's just dry/cold then I'd rather have a few weeks of 60s instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 going to change my name to BrianTORCH Still think 65 today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Yeah I saw. If it snows, I'm all for it. If it's just dry/cold then I'd rather have a few weeks of 60s instead. Yeah snowstorm or 60+ please. Hope next week torches while I'm home more than progged with the low tracking through the Great Lakes. I miss the beach and hopefully when I'm home it'll be tolerable near the water. After that, if it snows, it snows. If not, then it'll be summer soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Euro.....AIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 I'd still wait for another couple of runs to put the nail in the coffin or not. It's not far off from looking a little better for areas like CT. The S/W are coming off the west coast and is not very concise at all. That can sometimes cause modelling issues..especially when it's strung out like it is right now out in the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Big severe week in general on the Euro... very warm and decent pre-dry line theta e advection into the N TX eastern OK/KS then gets kissed by screaming mid level jet max and rapidly falling temperature above the boundary layer. That has cap-recession ba-boomba written all over it... I could see 30 discrete tor producing hornet stings cutting up the country side on radar next Monday afternoon. The same system would weaken some, but still probably produce severe up into IN/OH and even PA and perhaps New England through D7 per this solution I'd go for watching a good severe wx day in the plains... I want as much damage as possible... You think it will be worse than March 3rd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Euro.....AIT. Classic spring omega construct to the flow orientation. this type of regime typically brings early season heat to the western Lakes, TV, MV areas, while we get plagued too cold to enjoy the outdoors and too warm to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Classic spring omega construct to the flow orientation. this type of regime typically brings early season heat to the western Lakes, TV, MV areas, while we get plagued too cold to enjoy the outdoors and too warm to snow. Typical Tip April, yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 You really have some growing up to do. How would you like it if it was your house? I saw first hand how peoples lives are affected just after a tornado on June 1st when your there and actually see it its not what you think! I'd go for watching a good severe wx day in the plains... I want as much damage as possible... You think it will be worse than March 3rd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Classic spring omega construct to the flow orientation. this type of regime typically brings early season heat to the western Lakes, TV, MV areas, while we get plagued too cold to enjoy the outdoors and too warm to snow. The good news for me is the fact that I'll be on Chicago from the evening of 4/4-4/11. It should be nicer there and maybe here by the time I return. OT but it's counter-intuitive that typing is easier on the iPhone vs iPad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Typical Tip April, yuck lol - don't blame the messenger (well, you can blame "Messenger", just not me haha) Sometimes this happens in April...well, every April, sooner or later, this happens. The might of seasonal change and the sun's ability to rather abruptly neutralize the whole of the lower tropospheric gradients damps out cyclogen to point where it means the difference between cold instability cu, where a month earlier you'd have fronts and low pressures. I tried to emphasize this point earlier but didn't notice any replies; probably because it isn't what people want to hear, so they pretend they never read it - haha. To re-iterate, the 500mb charts would often suggest potency ...but the surface evolution verifies with baggy pressure patterns and non-committed area of loosely disorganized QPF... It's because the lower troposphere is being diabatically grilled heading into April. In order to really set the table for a stronger cyclogenesis, the mid levels have to either be uber intense (which they are not in this 10 day vision), or there has to be a relatively fresh CAA dump almost on top of the storm timing-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Still think 65 today? nope-we clouded up and rained at the wrong time..was counting on more sun and cloudiness later than it occured... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I'd go for watching a good severe wx day in the plains... I want as much damage as possible... You think it will be worse than March 3rd? not cool dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Look at the goofus in the long range. 850s near -20C in NNE at some points. Shades of 1982? (Temps, not the blizzard) Or maybe that one-day howler in 1995 that's still the coldest April day (for mean temp - aft max was 16, with winds NW25G50) in my experience, below even my Ft.Kent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 lol - don't blame the messenger (well, you can blame "Messenger", just not me haha) Sometimes this happens in April...well, every April, sooner or later, this happens. The might of seasonal change and the sun's ability to rather abruptly neutralize the whole of the lower tropospheric gradients damps out cyclogen to point where it means the difference between cold instability cu, where a month earlier you'd have fronts and low pressures. I tried to emphasize this point earlier but didn't notice any replies; probably because it isn't what people want to hear, so they pretend they never read it - haha. To re-iterate, the 500mb charts would often suggest potency ...but the surface evolution verifies with baggy pressure patterns and non-committed area of loosely disorganized QPF... It's because the lower troposphere is being diabatically grilled heading into April. In order to really set the table for a stronger cyclogenesis, the mid levels have to either be uber intense (which they are not in this 10 day vision), or there has to be a relatively fresh CAA dump almost on top of the storm timing-wise. I didn't see that post earlier, but it definitely has merit. I did think that we had a good thermal gradient at 850..enough for a s/w to interact with it and start the feedback process, but the s/w didn't really get its act together quick enough on the euro. The Canadian shows you how that is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I didn't see that post earlier, but it definitely has merit. I did think that we had a good thermal gradient at 850..enough for a s/w to interact with it and start the feedback process, but the s/w didn't really get its act together quick enough on the euro. The Canadian shows you how that is possible. Yeah and I wasn't precise enough ....I don't mean regarding Saturday's thing, per se, but just in general ...regardless of what the 500mb looks like, things get really muted and muddled ever more, every day post March 21... Just something to consider. I think Saturday/Sun deal is on the table either way, and it will come down to precise sampling of the parental dynamics from off the Pacific. These flat open 3 million mph waves can vary 1 degree in latitude and make all the difference to a given location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 look at the difference in the geopotential medium up N between this 12z Euro's initialization frame, and the 240... You can see the hemisphere heating up... All the models will tend to exhibit this behavior post March 21 of any given year (Scott's and my conversation). This is what the winter wanters battle in their ever dwindling odds - 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 You really have some growing up to do. How would you like it if it was your house? I saw first hand how peoples lives are affected just after a tornado on June 1st when your there and actually see it its not what you think! Dude snownh is a joke, don't pay attention to him and maybe he'll finally poof away. I still have no idea if he's 16 or 35 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 Euro ensembles are similar to the op for Saturday. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Euro ensembles are similar to the op for Saturday. Blah. Tough to ride a GGEM/Ukie combo..but we'll have to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Now the forecast is for sunny and 62 on Sunday..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Tough to ride a GGEM/Ukie combo..but we'll have to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 NAM looks good for CT...Euro was close to being decent but weakened a bit too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Now the forecast is for sunny and 62 on Sunday..lol Nape-ril Fool's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Nape-ril Fool's <---- hahahhaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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