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Early April Winter Pattern Likely


CoastalWx

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<p>Early call for next year?

If we have a remotely close to normal winter next year its going to feel like we got 200" of snow lol.

Tracking a 3-6" snowstorm will feel like tracking a 12-18" storm next year.

But, can you imagine if next years winter sucks too lol

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Dead ratter but not as bad so it will be tenable.

Longer term statistical inference strongly argues against though. This year's lack of snow pushed the climate envelope and is among the top 5 - check that - which the odds of achieving that before any given winter begins is obviously on the remoter side. Doing it two winters in a row would be fantastically rare.

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Longer term statistical inference strongly argues against though. This year's lack of snow pushed the climate envelope and is among the top 5 - check that - which the odds of achieving that before any given winter begins is obviously on the remoter side. Doing it two winters in a row would be fantastically rare.

I disagree. You can easily have two back-to-back below average winters. That's all WxFella was saying... not as bad as this winter, but below average (ie dead ratter).

Climate stats is a long-term thing... given the string of above normal winters in the past 10-12 years (most climate sites are averaging like 6-20" higher during that time than their 30/50 year averages), its not hard to imagine a string or set of years below average.

I know up at BTV, since 2000, they are avereaging like two feet above the 100-year average. I almost think they are due for a decade of below average winters to make up for it.

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I disagree. You can easily have two back-to-back below average winters. That's all WxFella was saying... not as bad as this winter, but below average (ie dead ratter).

Climate stats is a long-term thing... given the string of above normal winters in the past 10-12 years (most climate sites are averaging like 6-20" higher during that time than their 30/50 year averages), its not hard to imagine a string or set of years below average.

I know up at BTV, since 2000, they are avereaging like two feet above the 100-year average. I almost think they are due for a decade of below average winters to make up for it.

I didn't say anything about below average winters..

He said dead ratter - and by that, subjective interpretation aside, we all know what he meant.

Below average winter would have blown this last one away, btw -

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I didn't say anything about below average winters..

He said dead ratter - and by that, subjective interpretation aside, we all know what he meant.

Below average winter would have blown this last one away, btw -

John, anything below 30 is a dead ratter. That's my thinking and my sense is we're getting that next year. I believe we're heading to a 3rd year of Nina.

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These things are always a pain to forecast. It seems like 20% of the time they really go to town and overperform... the rest of the time cutting model QPF is generally the way to go.

Just getting back from being out all afternoon but it looks like BDL measured 0.3" (you prob already saw)....we got a coating here but no measurable...a whopping 0.04" of qpf.

It seems like so many systems this year have not been "clean" systems....very sloppy with the precip shields and forcing. Even the system that gave 6-10" to the interior N of the CT/MA border on 2/29-3/1 was really sloppy in its dynamics and strung out over 30 hours in multiple rounds. We haven't had a nice "easy" system to pin down heavy qpf since the October storm.

Anyone out near Norfolk get 3"+? Looked like they could have done ok as they were actually under decent echoes for longer than anyone else.

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