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Early April Winter Pattern Likely


CoastalWx

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CTZ013-NYZ065-066-281615-

SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-WESTERN DUTCHESS NY-EASTERN DUTCHESS NY-

1128 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...

DUTCHESS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 1126 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS

AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS

LOCATED NEAR HOPEWELL JUNCTION...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE

CARMEL...AND MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH

seems to be getting stronger since then

Can't see how it's producing 1" hail.

Maybe 1/2"

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I can't get over how nice this pattern really does look on the EURO. Low after low retrograding into NE Canada, with whatever cold we have left getting dumped into the eastern CONUS and north Atlantic.

If only it were December,January, hell even February and March!

FYP

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Yeah, I recall posting about this sneaky convective signal for today, 3 or 4 days ago in a previous thread. It's cold in the lower thicknes with a ton of elevated instability assisted along by jet streak..

Also - folks should keep in mind that the mid level charts are not the whole story for any potentials in "Aprils". In the middle of winter, you can count on the baroclinic zones to be well defined; not so much in April. Despite an impressive cutting off appeal aloft, if there is not a fairly fresh accompanying CAA beneath, the ambient baroclinicity gets difused by increased insolation unilaterally heating on the both sides of boundaries. This adversely affects cyclogenesis potential, and you wind up with comparatively weaker lower atmospheric results from dynamics aloft.

If you go back and really study your 1982 type events, there was leading anomalously cold CAA events that were almost collocated in time with the passage of the deeper layer dynamics.

The 00z Euro shows this with a beaut of a close low aloft in its extended, but a weak surface reflection and more at drab over anything better organized.

If you don't take neutralization of lower level thermal gradients in the spring into consideration, you may find your self disappointed if you are hoping for a bigger event. just fyi -

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uber fast flow regimes haulin' arse off the Pac typically have timing and amplitude consistency issues, particularly in the GFS with its comparatively inferior initialization schemes... That said, sometimes it gets to the right solution however wrong for it's method. I bet the Euro holds

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UK is less sheared than the previous run and slighty slower...looks like maybe a 2-4...5" possible deal for the hills of NW CT and the southern Berks.

That's the first piece of good news we've had all day. Usually that things is way south and supressed, even when it shouldn't be. I'm sure that snow would extend over most of interior SNE extrapolated

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