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Early April Winter Pattern Likely


CoastalWx

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I was just going to say, the OP has been out to lunch with this storm as far as the timing. WAY behind. Seems weird given the EC track record, but it happens.

The euro ensemble mean is not that far off from the operational. Its in between the fast NAM and the slow operational. And it affects the northeast late Saturday night into Sunday AM. Its a little too far south for SNE. Has the best precip for the SE coast of SNE from Sunday 6z to Sunday 12z.

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Suppression depression?

New SREFS are pretty juicy but pretty far south.. no meaningful precip into SNE.

In this year though, I def do not wanna be in the jackpot this far out , but it is unnerving to not even have precip reach SNE coast

CTBust.. will the bet count if NYC gets 2"?????

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Man this pattern could be great...

Cut-off Low season can produce some big upslope snows if they are anywhere east and/or north of us.

Last night was the second snow this week and it looks like more could be coming next week.

If we get a situation like this, look out in the upslope region. Cut off drifting around with 24-36 hours NW flow out of the Maritimes.

gfs_namer_186_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

30 hours later...

gfs_namer_216_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Last big cut-off low to deliver 20"+ was in late April 2010 and that year is very much like this season for us up here with a torch and quick melt out, buds on trees, then a shock back to winter.

April 28, 2010 upslope event... 800ft elevation:

IMG_0850_edited-1.jpg

Mountain at 3,000ft the day after...

IMG_0875_edited-1.jpg

Crossing fingers because with a cold pattern and a lot of cut-offs meandering around, all it takes is one to get NE of this location and spin for 24-36 hours with cold NW flow... lookout.

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We'll be sure to look out for Stowe.

LOL... I'm just throwing it out there as this is an April winter pattern thread ;) And as we talked about last night, we all know what patterns help our respective backyards get snow. Just seeing troughs and cut-offs in the region I figured I'd throw it out there and this spring to me has been very similar to March/April 2010 just like 2 weeks earlier. March was dry and snowless and turning warm with a big record warmth and 30+ departures around April 1-3, 2010... then we flipped back to winter.

Though I do know that 99.9% of you couldn't care less if the upslope region gets another NW flow event. I don't take any of the comments to heart so don't worry... :lol:

I'm pulling for you guys down there over the next few days. I think there are several ways we can all get snow over the next 10 days though.

It looks like after whatever happens this weekend, there's another trough settling in middle to end of next week. I think Will mentioned it but that one may be cold enough to even have an overrunning event before it lifts out.

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LOL... I'm just throwing it out there as this is an April winter pattern thread ;) And as we talked about last night, we all know what patterns help our respective backyards get snow. Just seeing troughs and cut-offs in the region I figured I'd throw it out there and this spring to me has been very similar to March/April 2010 just like 2 weeks earlier. March was dry and snowless and turning warm with a big record warmth and 30+ departures around April 1-3, 2010... then we flipped back to winter.

Though I do know that 99.9% of you couldn't care less if the upslope region gets another NW flow event. I don't take any of the comments to heart so don't worry... :lol:

I'm pulling for you guys down there over the next few days. I think there are several ways we can all get snow over the next 10 days though.

It looks like after whatever happens this weekend, there's another trough settling in middle to end of next week. I think Will mentioned it but that one may be cold enough to even have an overrunning event before it lifts out.

Yeah we were talking about the threat later in the week for a while. Too early to say if that has legs or not, but it has been showing up on guidance.

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