CT Rain Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I am thinking my no full leaf out bet with Kev is a lock by April 15th. Met Herb will let us know if NCT has full leaf out. Guinness Black, best served ice cold. Yeah that's going to go down in flames lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 No it wouldnt. LOL. Sorry, just trying to pawn him off on some other hapless forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 And so why is there any discussion about limbs?? White Pines? IDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Very interesting write up by BOX this morning using a persistence forecast, which Will hates, they discount any accumulations of significance and point to the winter pattern. Hmmmm Well persistence is not a good way to forecast, but there are some red flags that need answering. It's very possible only a narrow area will see any meaningful snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I must be out of the loop with things......who the hell has any leaves? I know. Full leaf out. Pffft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 When was the last Lion-Lion March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Leaves and snow..snow and leaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 <p> Well persistence is not a good way to forecast, but there are some red flags that need answering. It's very possible only a narrow area will see any meaningful snow. its obvious no one in the Met community has any confidence in short term modeling up here. Nowcast winter for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 <p> its obvious no one in the Met community has any confidence in short term modeling up here. Nowcast winter for sure. Well we saw some forecasters hugging persistence and climo 24 hours prior to the OctoSnow. We know how well that worked out for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Well we saw some forecasters hugging persistence and climo 24 hours prior to the OctoSnow. We know how well that worked out for them. For what its worth MM5 is very cold and has some .5 to .75 pockets from the Berks SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Yeah good luck to the CT peeps and even Bob. No expectations. I'm pretty sure there will be snow falling but there won't be much, if any, accumulation here. I'd feel more confident out my Kev and points W & NW from there. It will come down to precip rates imo. If you can get under a good band, you should do fine. 1-2" would be my general call for areas out W. Trace down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 One thing to watch is a strong Easterly flow (which is occurring over Michigan right now) this would have multiple effects, warm coast communities and also upslope Will and Pete. Neat look to the visible out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Nws is going wicked conservative. Low of 36 and rain at bdl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 2-4 with higher lolli's is probably safe right now...I guess high end if everything came together perfect would be 6-8 for someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Nws is going wicked conservative. Low of 36 and rain at bdl? Yeah I don't get that. I see mainly (all?) snow at BDL. How much they accumulate is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 No expectations. I'm pretty sure there will be snow falling but there won't be much, if any, accumulation here. I'd feel more confident out my Kev and points W & NW from there. It will come down to precip rates imo. If you can get under a good band, you should do fine. 1-2" would be my general call for areas out W. Trace down here. Yeah, it's all about rates with this - need some serious dynamic cooling to get accumulating snow. Soundings look marginal as you'd expect for a late season snow but one thing this does have going for it is the timing. I'd love to be in High Point State Park for this baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Yeah I don't get that. I see mainly (all?) snow at BDL. How much they accumulate is the question. Yea, I'm a little puzzled by the rain part. The 36 may end up verifying because the easterly flow forcing poor BL temps in the lower elevations, but with -6C 850mb temps it should fall frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Agree ginx. Mentioned it last night. Coastal communities and valley locales will be tough with the easterly component for the coast and daylight and sun angle inland in valleys. Yesterday in VT in snowed all day light to moderately wit a temp of 32F and it didn't even stick to grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Yeah I don't get that. I see mainly (all?) snow at BDL. How much they accumulate is the question. Perhaps some light rain at the very start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Nws is going wicked conservative. Low of 36 and rain at bdl? Yeah I don't get that. I see mainly (all?) snow at BDL. How much they accumulate is the question. SHORT TERM...BELK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Yeah I don't get that. I see mainly (all?) snow at BDL. How much they accumulate is the question. Probably all snow/sleet in interior CT with little accumulation below 700' after like 9am I think. Sun angle is killer if snowfall rates aren't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Perhaps some light rain at the very start? Yeah possibly. The fact that this starts just before daybreak and peaks around 12z will help things quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 So what time are we thinking this starts? Is this like a 4:00am start time or more like 7:00AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 2-4 with higher lolli's is probably safe right now...I guess high end if everything came together perfect would be 6-8 for someone Honestly not a terrible call here. That heat wave humbled you LOL I think maybe like higher elevations of the litchfiel hills have a chance at 6"...I think 3-4" is possible for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Watch the convection today and how the precip shield moves into the eastern Great Lakes area. It's all about how the weenie mid level frontogenesis band moves in, and then the rest of the moisture gathers along right behind it. If it's disorganized which has happened before, then it's not more than an inch or two. However, it it can remain organized with good banding and not many breaks..than it could really produce. I don't really see a reason to be bullish now, but the 12z runs should try to narrow down the best area I think. It still comes down to nowcasting with this. Here is the SPC WRF. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Watch the convection today and how the precip shield moves into the eastern Great Lakes area. It's all about how the weenie mid level frontogenesis band moves in, and then the rest of the moisture gathers along right behind it. If it's disorganized which has happened before, then it's not more than an inch or two. However, it it can remain organized with good banding and not many breaks..than it could really produce. I don't really see a reason to be bullish now, but the 12z runs should try to narrow down the best area I think. It still comes down to nowcasting with this. Here is the SPC WRF. http://www.emc.ncep....yle/spcprod/00/ At hour 31 the sim radar has a tongue of precip coming into NW Ma. before anywhere else in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 At hour 31 the sim radar has a tongue of precip coming into NW Ma. before anywhere else in SNE. That SPC product looks pretty good for us in Western MA. We all see several hours of >30 dBZ echoes. Where do I sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 At hour 31 the sim radar has a tongue of precip coming into NW Ma. before anywhere else in SNE. Well it's a model so it's subjective to criticism like anything else, but I do believe in that finger of precip moving into western areas. That's the mid level frontogenesis band moving out ahead of the main batch of precip. It happens quite frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I expect nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I expect nothing You should expect :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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