snywx Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Jackpot on the 06z nam is catskills (north of the sleet) to TOL. Are you talking qpf amounts? Cause its alot drier up north.. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/06znamp24042.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Those SREF probs are great for Kevin. Congrats to that area and into RI. Bob may have a little fun too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 At least the sneaky Scooter storm looks like it will happen..lol, although a day early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Are you talking qpf amounts? Cause its alot drier up north.. http://raleighwx.ame...6znamp24042.gif Snow amounts, not qpf. There is a warm punch at 750mb tha limits snow amounts further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I think you are about 25-30 miles too far south to get much snow in this...NNJ and your area may get the qpf jackpot but not the snow jackpot....snow jackpot looks like catskills to somewhere in NW CT right now. I agree.. Im leaning toward 1-3" in my immediate area with 4-6" about 20 miles north of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Those SREF probs are great for Kevin. Congrats to that area and into RI. Bob may have a little fun too. AWT....how many posts can we bump from Kevin and Brian12345 if there is a nice stripe of snow? Brian told us that there is no cold air in Canada and that this storm wouldn't produce its own cold air....so its probably all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 AWT....how many posts can we bump from Kevin and Brian12345 if there is a nice stripe of snow? Brian told us that there is no cold air in Canada and that this storm wouldn't produce its own cold air....so its probably all rain. Pro Mets FTW..lol. The same airmass where Brian123456789 is laying out in a speedo trying to tan up as much of his bikini line as possible, will deliver snow 24 hrs later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Pro Mets FTW..lol. The same airmass where Brian123456789 is laying out in a speedo trying to tan up as much of his bikini line as possible, will deliver snow 24 hrs later. Average high is near 50F this time of year in Tolland....no chance of snow. Average high near 50F means there can't possibly be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 LOL at the 4am crowd having laugh at the peasants. But you know there must be a chance of snow when ORH is posting this time of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Well I'm out...back for the end of the 12z suite. Good trends at 00z...hopefully we can tick it north just a bit more. That would give a good event for both CT/MA if that happened...but still skeptical right now...I'd like to see good evidence of over 0.40" widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Well I'm out...back for the end of the 12z suite. Good trends at 00z...hopefully we can tick it north just a bit more. That would give a good event for both CT/MA if that happened...but still skeptical right now...I'd like to see good evidence of over 0.40" widespread. Wouldn't you say if it goes north though it runs the risk of sleeting over a larger area of CT? Obviously though it would improve snowfall up in ORH and BOS. It seems one of those deals now where its gotta rob CT to pay MA. I'm sure the CT crowd thinks its fine right where it is, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Wouldn't you say if it goes north though it runs the risk of sleeting over a larger area of CT? Obviously though it would improve snowfall up in ORH and BOS. It seems one of those deals now where its gotta rob CT to pay MA. I'm sure the CT crowd thinks its fine right where it is, lol. Well if it comes north it might rob S CT (away from the coast and above 200 feet) of snow...but I think the northern half of CT is ok...if it comes WAY north, then it might introduce sleet problems into TOL. But I think that is unlikely right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Euro maps look like they have deep layer RH in the midlevels from nrn CT to ORH for a few hours. That's a good indication of decent snow rates possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Loving the overnight trends. Once again living in the highlands will pay dividends. It will be nice to have the seasonal total go up some more. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Loving the overnight trends. Once again living in the highlands will pay dividends. It will be nice to have the seasonal total go up some more. Nice. This isn't really a highland vs no highland thing. It's more a function of latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Now watch the 12z models go south..lol. Will joked about this to me earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 dont even say that Now watch the 12z models go south..lol. Will joked about this to me earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 dont even say that We are both still a little skepticle...especially for our latitude I guess. There are still some red flags with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Weenies can go all for it I guess, but I really would wait until 12z to see the trends and then either pull out the stops or not. There is a 20-30 mile weenie band and it's all about where that goes. If it ticks south, then most of us won't see more than an inch or two, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 This isn't really a highland vs no highland thing. It's more a function of latitude. My longitude, latitude and elevation will be perfect. Would you rather be in Dobbs Ferry or here? I rest my case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 My longitude, latitude and elevation will be perfect. Would you rather be in Dobbs Ferry or here? I rest my case. Well VT may see nothing, so it's not just a highland thing. Also, I'd rather be south of your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I'm only at about 50% of average March snowfall. It will be nice to have that get closer to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 after last week thats still good Weenies can go all for it I guess, but I really would wait until 12z to see the trends and then either pull out the stops or not. There is a 20-30 mile weenie band and it's all about where that goes. If it ticks south, then most of us won't see more than an inch or two, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 06z GFS cut back on the QPF across nrn CT, but the low position is pretty much the same as 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Well VT may see nothing, so it's not just a highland thing. Also, I'd rather be south of your location. I expect the North trend to continue which , by event time, will put me right in the sweet spot. Add to that my elevation and you have the recipe for awesomeness. I'll post pics for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Another aspect of this low, will be the convection late today over the OV. There should be a pretty good line of storms with this moving east. That may have a say as to how the moisture from this works into SNE. Convection is known to play games with low pressure, when the low strength is weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 The more I look at this, the more I think that this will be all about where the mid level frontogenesis band sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 The more I look at this, the more I think that this will be all about where the mid level frontogenesis band sets up. If that is over NYC, well good luck with that. It's just a good idea to wait and see what the 12z models do, but we know a certain individual in Tolland won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 <CTBlizz> Well it looks like 3-6" with damage to trees and power outages<CTBlizz> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 LOL, Sunday Night is still something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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