Logan11 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 How about ENY? SW Berkshires/Litchfield county/TOL/southern ORH hills look like the best spots on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 How about ENY? About 0.30" there. The best in NY State is in the Catskills to your south with near 0.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 OT but best thunderstorm i've seen in a few years. Managed to get the severe out about 15 minutes in advance. Quite the light show and we had a 10-min sustained wind of 35 kt with a gust to 47 kt. Pressure kicked 2mb with the squall line meso high and the temp dropped from 68 to 59 in a minute or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Has 0.30-0.35" up to ORH now...but still a bit diffuse with the precip shield...max isn't much more than that...maybe 0,40-.0.45" into N CT. SW Berkshires/Litchfield county/TOL/southern ORH hills look like the best spots on the Euro. Awesome! So do you think a 2-3" prediction looks reasonable in this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Ahh thx. I think that's an improvement though. About 0.30" there. The best in NY State is in the Catskills to your south with near 0.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 OT but best thunderstorm i've seen in a few years. Managed to get the severe out about 15 minutes in advance. Quite the light show and we had a 10-min sustained wind of 35 kt with a gust to 47 kt. Pressure kicked 2mb with the squall line meso high and the temp dropped from 68 to 59 in a minute or two. In Bermuda? That's pretty cool. Sounds like you almost verified severe with that wind gust but if you registered 47 knots, its likely someone nearby was able to muster 50 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Awesome! So do you think a 2-3" prediction looks reasonable in this area? Yeah I think its getting quite likly that at least N CT elevations will see 2-4"...perhaps some lollis higher. Berkshires and at least the southern ORH hills may cash in too. Litchfield county near Norfolk looks the best right now. 03z RPM smoked Berkshires and ORH hills...pretty far north. We'll see what happens with the SREFs and 06z NAM in 90 minutes...I'll probably be up for that sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Yeah I think its getting quite likly that at least N CT elevations will see 2-4"...perhaps some lollis higher. Berkshires and at least the southern ORH hills may cash in too. Litchfield county near Norfolk looks the best right now. 03z RPM smoked Berkshires and ORH hills...pretty far north. We'll see what happens with the SREFs and 06z NAM in 90 minutes...I'll probably be up for that sadly. That would be perfect... it's exciting to see the Euro finally come north along with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 That would be perfect... it's exciting to see the Euro finally come north along with the other models. Tolland just might be in the perfect spot for this one....of course that will make for mind numbing posts from Kevin, lol. But it looks pretty good for N CT....still have to reconcile the precip intensity, but the bulk falls between 06z and 15z which is good timing so that will help even if the snow has trouble getting more intense than moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 In Bermuda? That's pretty cool. Sounds like you almost verified severe with that wind gust but if you registered 47 knots, its likely someone nearby was able to muster 50 knots. yeah http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp the weather service is near the east end of the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 yeah http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp the weather service is near the east end of the island. BTW, I was assuming that Bermuda hadthe same severe tstorm criteria as the US...but I probably shouldn't have assumed that. Is it the same? (50 kt wind gust and/or 3/4" hail and/or any funnel cloud/tornado) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 BTW, I was assuming that Bermuda hadthe same severe tstorm criteria as the US...but I probably shouldn't have assumed that. Is it the same? (50 kt wind gust and/or 3/4" hail and/or any funnel cloud/tornado) yeah we basically decided on the same criteria. However, there is a caveat in their for squall (sudden increase of 22 kt or more) I know the US jumped to 1" hail, but we still have 3/4"...hail is about the least likely severe weather here, anyway. This is the same front that gave hail to E NY/W NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 yeah we basically decided on the same criteria. However, there is a caveat in their for squall (sudden increase of 22 kt or more) I know the US jumped to 1" hail, but we still have 3/4"...hail is about the least likely severe weather here, anyway. This is the same front that gave hail to E NY/W NE. Oh jeez, I'm out of the loop on that....when did that occur? Didn't even know that. I don;t necessarily disagree with it as damage from 3/4" hail is pretty minor if not non-existent. I seem to recall very vaguely about that change now that you mentioned it, but don't remember any specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Oh jeez, I'm out of the loop on that....when did that occur? Didn't even know that. I don;t necessarily disagree with it as damage from 3/4" hail is pretty minor if not non-existent. I seem to recall very vaguely about that change now that you mentioned it, but don't remember any specifics. i think it was by region...I think the northeast went to 1" hail around 2009? Not sure on the specific date or year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Huge jump north in the 03z SREFs....congrats Kevin. Gets the 0.50" line to TOL and 0.25" line just north of ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Pretty remarkable trend on the 00z guidance...and now the SREFs post-00z...as mentioned before, the 03z RPM was a huge weenie solution for SNE too. The solution probably doesn't matter quite as much as the actual trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 BOX not buying anything really more than inch.... AT THIS POINT...LIKE THE IDEA OF LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WITH A HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THINK THE NAM IS GENERATING TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION FOR A LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF 40N. SIDED MORE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH IS PROJECTED TO BE VERY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 600-500 MB /NEARLY 18000 FT UP/. THERMAL PROFILES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT FOR THE CRITICAL BOUNDARY LAYER. SINCE IT IS NOW THE END OF MARCH...THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP TO ACCUMULATE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH OR SO...BUT EVEN THEN MAINLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. I think its wrong to go less than inch if they really think that 0.35-0.40" qpf will be generated like the ECMWF...higher terrain will definitely see more than an inch of snow from that if that QPF verifies. I can see going for an inch or less if it is believed that the qpf will not be more than 0.20" or so. But I think their reasoning is poor IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 The posts from Kevin are going to be vomit worthy. Pretty remarkable jump in models, but I guess it goes back to the point about models struggling when you have a diffuse s/w embedded in fast flow. I brought this up about 2 days ago. Models always seem to struggle a bit when it's diffuse vorticity embedded in fast flow. It definitely jumped a little further north than I thought. Euro is laying an egg here. Maybe it isn't done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Euro has the weenie band going right over Tolland and into se MA. Bob should get it too I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 NAM a bit weaker here, but no surprise given the ridiculous 00z solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 LL will say he was right, but it doesn't change the way I feel about BOS. CT was always in the game, but this may be the final dagger for me. I need another jump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 The posts from Kevin are going to be vomit worthy. Pretty remarkable jump in models, but I guess it goes back to the point about models struggling when you have a diffuse s/w embedded in fast flow. I brought this up about 2 days ago. Models always seem to struggle a bit when it's diffuse vorticity embedded in fast flow. It definitely jumped a little further north than I thought. Euro is laying an egg here. Maybe it isn't done? The trend is good....with still over 24h to go...it might not be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 The trend is good....with still over 24h to go...it might not be bad. You would think it's done, but maybe not? I'll be surprised if it goes north again at 06z and 12z...especially when you think of where it was yesterday. That's a pretty remarkable change in sensible wx on the euro from yesterday, but it did look a little weird. I think we both mentioned how weird it was keeping a strung out mess for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 You would think it's done, but maybe not? I'll be surprised if it goes north again at 06z and 12z...especially when you think of where it was yesterday. That's a pretty remarkable change in sensible wx on the euro from yesterday, but it did look a little weird. I think we both mentioned how weird it was keeping a strung out mess for some reason. SREF probs went way up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 6z NAM looks good for areas out here.. NEPA/SENY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 6z NAM looks good for areas out here.. NEPA/SENY Its warm there in the MLs. 750mb warm punch. Could be a lot of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Its warm there in the MLs. 750mb warm punch. Could be a lot of sleet. Looks like the precip max has shifted south once again to where it once was.. Close to 1" qpf for these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Jackpot on the 06z nam is catskills (north of the sleet) to TOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Looks like the precip max has shifted south once again to where it once was.. Close to 1" qpf for these parts. I think you are about 25-30 miles too far south to get much snow in this...NNJ and your area may get the qpf jackpot but not the snow jackpot....snow jackpot looks like catskills to somewhere in NW CT right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 BOX not buying anything really more than inch.... AT THIS POINT...LIKE THE IDEA OF LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WITH A HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THINK THE NAM IS GENERATING TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION FOR A LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF 40N. SIDED MORE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH IS PROJECTED TO BE VERY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 600-500 MB /NEARLY 18000 FT UP/. THERMAL PROFILES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT FOR THE CRITICAL BOUNDARY LAYER. SINCE IT IS NOW THE END OF MARCH...THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP TO ACCUMULATE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH OR SO...BUT EVEN THEN MAINLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. I think its wrong to go less than inch if they really think that 0.35-0.40" qpf will be generated like the ECMWF...higher terrain will definitely see more than an inch of snow from that if that QPF verifies. I can see going for an inch or less if it is believed that the qpf will not be more than 0.20" or so. But I think their reasoning is poor IMHO. I just looked at everything. If that weenie band comes through nrn CT or even near you, I think the DGZ is lower and decent rates can occur.. especially at 1000ft. I agree, that reasoning seems a little flawed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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