ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 It's gonna have to be ripping after like 15z to have a lot of this stuff stick on roadways and stuff. Timing on the NAM got maybe 0.1"-0.25" before 12z then and additional 0.25"-0.5" between 12z and 18z. By mid day on the last day in March it's tough. Today up here in VT, it was snowing good and 32F and it didn't stick to hardly anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 GFS is a torch into the mid-levels for CT. Looks like 850 gets to HFD by h42. If this thing is progged to be going at 18z, people better temper their amounts, especially outside the hills. Kinda looks strung out like the 12z Euro did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 GFS is a torch into the mid-levels for CT. Not much in the way of cold air damming with this set-up Will, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Looks like 850 gets to HFD by h42. If this thing is progged to be going at 18z, people better temper their amounts, especially outside the hills. Kinda looks strung out like the 12z Euro did. NAM had a pretty strong warm punch above 850...the DXR sounding had 750mb torching while 850 was like -3 or -4C. That is something that will have to be watched. Still someone has a shot to do well..probably N CT is the best spot right now....but the Euro is still lurking over our heads as a solution that gives not much to anyone...maybe a sloppy inch for above 1000 feet....but the trends so far tonight are encouraging...but the same thing happened last night and Euro still kind of stunk. Given we are closer now though, might be a better sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 NAM had a pretty strong warm punch above 850...the DXR sounding had 750mb torching while 850 was like -3 or -4C. That is something that will have to be watched. Still someone has a shot to do well..probably N CT is the best spot right now....but the Euro is still lurking over our heads as a solution that gives not much to anyone...maybe a sloppy inch for above 1000 feet....but the trends so far tonight are encouraging...but the same thing happened last night and Euro still kind of stunk. Given we are closer now though, might be a better sign. Yeah just took a look and there is some warm noses in the mid levels, especially after 12z saturday. This thing is gonna get alot of weenies excited especially inland, and it could easily not be more than a few sloppy inches on the grass that gets melted by evening. There are def many things working against us(ie warming aloft, sun angle, qpf fields etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 uk still has Sunday's thing but not nearly as amped as the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 the Euro is still lurking over our heads as a solution that gives not much to anyone...maybe a sloppy inch for above 1000 feet....but the trends so far tonight are encouraging...but the same thing happened last night and Euro still kind of stunk. Given we are closer now though, might be a better sign. Yeah, the Euro definitely worries me... it's been the most consistent model while the others have flip-flopped back and forth. The 00z run will be significant to watch... let's hope it trends north tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 uk still has Sunday's thing but not nearly as amped as the previous run. Yeah that isn't a surprise..that 12z solution was nuts. Other 00z guidance has trended toward it though so we might see a system yet...just prob not the dream solution we wanted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Wow, the GGEM is way north...kind of like the NAM...has the jackpot in N CT and MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Wow, the GGEM is way north...kind of like the NAM...has the jackpot in N CT and MA. That's good to hear... how's the UKie look tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 GEFS are pretty good too...brings the 0.50" line just north of the MA/CT border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Wow, the GGEM is way north...kind of like the NAM...has the jackpot in N CT and MA. Put your jockstrap on we both know the euro is going to come way north compared to the 12z Will be like the event the other day the cutoff for .2 or .3 will be very close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Put your jockstrap on we both know the euro is going to come way north compared to the 12z Will be like the event the other day the cutoff for .2 or .3 will be very close I'm still a bit skeptical on the Euro...but we'll see. Given the event is inside 36 hours now, the other models trending like this does have more weight than what we saw last night at this time before the Euro came in as a buzzkill. So its likely the Euro will bump more north, but I specifically want to see that more intense band mantaining its way into SNE that it has refused to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Useless DST in March ....I won't be able to stay up late enough for the Euro... I'm still a bit skeptical on the Euro...but we'll see. Given the event is inside 36 hours now, the other models trending like this does have more weight than what we saw last night at this time before the Euro came in as a buzzkill. So its likely the Euro will bump more north, but I specifically want to see that more intense band mantaining its way into SNE that it has refused to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 GFS is a torch into the mid-levels for CT. SWFE FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Useless DST in March ....I won't be able to stay up late enough for the Euro... I'll be up for it as it comes out in 30min...but I'm not really looking forward to it. I expect a buzzkill solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Am I gett ing snow Will? Should I got to bed or what? I don't want to miss the snow. Should I go outside with my shovel now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Am I gett ing snow Will? Should I got to bed or what? I don't want to miss the snow. Should I go outside with my shovel now? What the hell are you talking about? lol....the system won't be here until late tomorrow night into Sat morning. But yeah, probably a decent chance there of accumulating snow but the Euro still has me nervous...hopefully it trends better tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 What the hell are you talking about? lol....the system won't be here until late tomorrow night into Sat morning. But yeah, probably a decent chance there of accumulating snow but the Euro still has me nervous...hopefully it trends better tonight. Oh thank God...I thought it was tomorrow. So I have time to wake up, work out, go to hr bar, go the to the Whale game, then go back to the bar, and get home for the snow. I just dont want to miss the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Oh thank God...I thought it was tomorrow. So I have time to wake up, work out, go to hr bar, go the to the Whale game, then go back to the bar, and get home for the snow. I just dont want to miss the snow. Since when did you get so excited for snow? You sound like you normally do when waiting for thunderstorms...12 pack FTW I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I'm still a bit skeptical on the Euro...but we'll see. Given the event is inside 36 hours now, the other models trending like this does have more weight than what we saw last night at this time before the Euro came in as a buzzkill. So its likely the Euro will bump more north, but I specifically want to see that more intense band mantaining its way into SNE that it has refused to show. Will was just busting. Euro will have the right idea on the super sharp wnw to ese cutoff. Likely it was too far south and the new models are too far north. Maybe the heaviest is sw ct into ri and ewb? Kind of like the rain event the other day? The nam trajectory looked good whether it's right in that far north? Prob not. But it'll be in the ballpark plus or minus 100 m at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Since when did you get so excited for snow? You sound like you normally do when waiting for thunderstorms...12 pack FTW I guess. I love snow. If I could get 12'' on May 31st I would take it and laugh at everyone who doesn't want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Will was just busting. Euro will have the right idea on the super sharp wnw to ese cutoff. Likely it was too far south and the new models are too far north. Maybe the heaviest is sw ct into ri and ewb? Kind of like the rain event the other day? The nam trajectory looked good whether it's right in that far north? Prob not. But it'll be in the ballpark plus or minus 100 m at this stage. The thing is that the Euro didn't have this...it had light precip and very diffuse over most of SNE. It didn't have an intense area of lift with a sharp cutoff to the northeast like other guidance has. That's why I'm nervous for decent snowfall in even CT. But it may not matter in 25 minutes if it comes around to other guidance. The last couple Euro runs have disintigrated the precip shield into a diffuse mess well before ever reaching SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I'll be up for it as it comes out in 30min...but I'm not really looking forward to it. I expect a buzzkill solution. Euro will be way north. Maybe still the south outlier but it's playing the game again and needs to come way north. Question now is does the heavier stuff tickle block island or Pawtucket brewery? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 The thing is that the Euro didn't have this...it had light precip and very diffuse over most of SNE. It didn't have an intense area of lift with a sharp cutoff to the northeast like other guidance has. That's why I'm nervous for decent snowfall in even CT. But it may not matter in 25 minutes if it comes around to other guidance. The last couple Euro runs have disintigrated the precip shield into a diffuse mess well before ever reaching SNE. Will I havent followed this at all aside of seeing what is posted here. BUT seems to be following a similar pattern. Euro is right in it not being an epic hit at 48-72, but ends up too far south. This seems to have played out a few times this winter. It will have the general idea right but will paint the .1 line where the .4 ends up etc. my guess would be a line from somewhere just north of the ma/ct/ny border to like mattapoiset as the "heaviest" precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Will I havent followed this at all aside of seeing what is posted here. BUT seems to be following a similar pattern. Euro is right in it now being an epic hit at 48-72, but ends up too far south. This seems to have played out a few times this winter. It will have the general idea right but will paint the .1 line where the .4 ends up etc. my guess would be a line from somewhere just north of the ma/ct/ny border to like mattapoiset as the "heaviest" precip. Certainly possible...the Euro hasn't been so hot in the past week or so...it got knocked around by the GFS in the event today that gave Maine snow. Euro tried to keep it way south. This is a big run though...36 hours out and if the Euro stinks again this close in...its likely to be right. One weenie model to hang my hat on is the WSI RPM 03z run...its coming way north again...first model after 00z and its north again so I guess thats a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Certainly possible...the Euro hasn't been so hot in the past week or so...it got knocked around by the GFS in the event today that gave Maine snow. Euro tried to keep it way south. This is a big run though...36 hours out and if the Euro stinks again this close in...its likely to be right. One weenie model to hang my hat on is the WSI RPM 03z run...its coming way north again...first model after 00z and its north again so I guess thats a good sign. Well we will see. Please update as you see the new model. I think it's going to be better. Euro has been funny all year tends to have the right idea but misses the details. It's like the anti ct blizz that has the wrong idea and misses the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Euro is definitely north...has a decent band into MA/CT now...but not nearly of the intensity as some other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Has 0.30-0.35" up to ORH now...but still a bit diffuse with the precip shield...max isn't much more than that...maybe 0,40-.0.45" into N CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 SW Berkshires/Litchfield county/TOL/southern ORH hills look like the best spots on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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