ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 my qpf maps are look a bit corrupted...but i think it was like 15 mm for you. It cuts the primary so far north that there is a strong snow band up near ART at 12z Saturday. Thanks...yeah it had the band getting into CNE too on that run. Either way, tough to get excited for anything more than light slop until the Euro can start showing a more intense band and dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 The NAM has more snow on Sunday night I see. Yeah that is the system that the 12z Ukie nuked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Yeah that is the system that the 12z Ukie nuked out. Do you think I can see 2'' Friday night/Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Wow to the NAM, although QPF is not spectacular here it looks like a few inches of powder with the temp profiles. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Congrats Mitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I'll take my 5-6" and be glad I don't live 10 miles NE where there's 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Congrats Mitch 4" of snow at home while Kevin is shoveling 7...cool. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 4" of snow at home while Kevin is shoveling 7...cool. lol You get sucker holed in the subsidence outside that death band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Congrats Mitch Nice band of 800-600 mb theta-e frontogenesis is the culprit. Here's a GrADS plot I came up with. I decided to write my own scripts after the FSU meso band site went down. I am writing for negative EPV. I think I've got it, but I'm not totally convinced of the results being accurate yet. Needs more testing. I'll post the EPV plot FWIW. Just take it with some grain of salt. As this is a weak event, I don't think there would be a deep layer of negative EPV and RH > 80%. In in a nor'easter, you'd expect the layer to be much deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 4" of snow at home while Kevin is shoveling 7...cool. lol Don't worry dude, it's just the NAM. We'll do alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Nice band of 800-600 mb theta-e frontogenesis is the culprit. Here's a GrADS plot I came up with. I decided to write my own scripts after the FSU meso band site went down. I am writing for negative EPV. I think I've got it, but I'm not totally convinced of the results being accurate yet. Needs more testing. I'll post the EPV plot FWIW. Just take it with some grain of salt. As this is a weak event, I don't think there would be a deep layer of negative EPV and RH > 80%. In in a nor'easter, you'd expect the layer to be much deeper. Great maps Mitch...the FSU site going down is one of the most frustrating things because I loved looking at that site. The EPV stuff is great too...they didn't have that on the FSU site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 ORH on the NAM. Sweet. LOL, just a quick 9" in 5 hours. 120331/0900Z 33 13006KT 32.3F SNOW 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 120331/1000Z 34 09004KT 31.7F SNOW 14:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 14:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 120331/1100Z 35 08006KT 31.4F SNOW 16:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.159 15:1| 4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 100| 0| 0 120331/1200Z 36 07007KT 31.2F SNOW 18:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126 16:1| 6.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120331/1300Z 37 06004KT 31.2F SNOW 16:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.129 16:1| 8.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53 100| 0| 0 120331/1400Z 38 05005KT 31.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.099 15:1| 9.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.63 100| 0| 0 120331/1500Z 39 05007KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 15:1| 9.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66 86| 0| 14 120331/1600Z 40 05008KT 35.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 15:1| 9.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67 65| 0| 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I've noticed this before... The NAM does this with these -NAO shuns ... It tends to "sinusoidally" impact, wane then come back from ~60 to ~48 to ~18 hour leads. We saw those 60-72 hour runs go nuts, then then these 60 hours runs back to nil, now the 48ers are coming half way back. I've seen it do this enough to wonder if there is a predictive validity out there that can be honed by considering the differential ...decay if you will. The next run might come back yet more, but then the 18 hour lead looms and backs off...maybe by 1/3 or even 1/2 type thing. Just something to consider, but I'm right about this observation overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I've also got a CSI script that uses the same expression as on the FSU site when it was working. Again, not totally convinced of its accuracy yet. The plot looks very much like the EPV one as CSI is generally present where EPV is negative. You can also have CI where EPV is negative too, which is why I overlaid CAPE. Oh...sorry about the acronyms: CSI is Conditional Symmetric Instability, EPV is Equivalent Potential Vorticity, CI is Conditional Instability, and I think we all know what CAPE is. I won't go through the whole explanation now, but basically we can use EPV, CSI, and frontogenesis to diagnose areas where a death band may occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Big time lift at BDL as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I've also got a CSI script that uses the same expression as on the FSU site when it was working. Again, not totally convinced of its accuracy yet. The plot looks very much like the EPV one as CSI is generally present where EPV is negative. You can also have CI where EPV is negative too, which is why I overlaid CAPE. Oh...sorry about the acronyms: CSI is Conditional Symmetric Instability, EPV is Equivalent Potential Vorticity, CI is Conditional Instability, and I think we all know what CAPE is. I won't go through the whole explanation now, but basically we can use EPV, CSI, and frontogenesis to diagnose areas where a death band may occur. The CSI/ML fronto on the NAM suggests the death band would be from NY State into SW MA and along the MA/CT border for a bit until going ESE into RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Great maps Mitch...the FSU site going down is one of the most frustrating things because I loved looking at that site. The EPV stuff is great too...they didn't have that on the FSU site. Although I can't be certain of it, I think the scripts may have been stopped because there may have been an error in the CSI depth plots. I became suspicious when I wasn't able to replicate the map for the 10/29 storm after getting an old NAM grid off of NOMADS. After much fiddling with my GrADS scripts, I was able to replicate it, but only after discovering that the FSU script wasn't doing what it was supposed to as it was plotting the depth of the layer of 95% or greater RH. It was not plotting the depth of the symmetrically unstable RH layer > 95%. The frontogenesis plots were fine as I was able to reproduce those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 RGEM says the NAM is full of crap...perhaps advisory snow into CT on the RGEM but not much else. Leaves most of MA with the exception of far SE MA/Cape with less than a tenth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Did ukie lose Sundays coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Did ukie lose Sundays coastal? Its not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Well, I go home to slop along the CT coast per NAM lol Nam's dynamics are pretty intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 GFS coming in a little more amped...not like the NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 It does get snow into MA though unlike the 12z and 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 new 00z UK has about 15-16 mm QPF in SW CT to PVD and about 10 mm in ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 new 00z UK has about 15-16 mm QPF in SW CT to PVD and about 10 mm in ORH. Wow that is a big improvement over 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Wow that is a big improvement over 12z. looks like a broadening of the qpf field due to less conflluence. The low isn't really any stronger. Still ORH is right along the gradient on the heavier precip so could be a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Sounds like its looking better for BDL-TOL, baring the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 This is going to be a classic BL storm near the south coast where the beaches may be snowing and 36F while 3 miles inland is snowing and accumulating and 32-33F. Tough marine layer this time of year, especially with an easterly component and water well above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 GFS is a torch into the mid-levels for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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