Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Thats a sharp cutoff though....Essex county MA gets screwed while 40 miles southwest is getting warning criteria snow. Death band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Lol now that is a toaster bath for Essex county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 You knew it was coming north... now the question becomes how far I won't see snow here in the real world. In my fantasies, the NAM is the only model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Someone disconnect the electricity from snowNH's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Dude it's the NAM. 18z suite bumped north, srefs juiced up, the trend is your friend, enjoy the snowy weekend...sunday night might be real fun for you guys up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 gfs will be interesting for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 18z suite bumped north, srefs juiced up, the trend is your friend, enjoy the snowy weekend...sunday night might be real fun for you guys up there It doesn't change a thing for my area. If any, just a bigger letdown if PVD gets a few inches and I get catpaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Total QPF. Jackpot is Longmeadow, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Ray gets taken out to the shed by a beast of a man this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 That run is the worst possible outcome for my area. That nrn edge is always less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Can we take the NAM seriously even inside 36 hours nowadays? Obviously I love that it gives me like 1" of qpf in that razor thin band that extends toward Pete, Kevin and then Scott. Pretty much crushing all of SNE through 36 hours except the south coast where BL issues arise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 LOL NAM....I saw the srefs and figured this was over. The NAM always sucks me in for no reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 That run is the worst possible outcome for my area. That nrn edge is always less. eh not always...sometimes you get those weenie bands on the outside edge of model qpf. I guess it depends if the storm is well developed enough to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 That run is the worst possible outcome for my area. That nrn edge is always less. Its often "you are either in or out" like the 3/2/06 event. 4" about 15 miles south of me...it went from 4" to nothing in less than 5 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 close to my area lol Total QPF. Jackpot is Longmeadow, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Well I'll be in PYM tomorrow night. Maybe the better area lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Well...I get pretty much zilch on the fantasy NAM weenie run. GL to those southwest. Not metro Boston's year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 eh not always...sometimes you get those weenie bands on the outside edge of model qpf. I guess it depends if the storm is well developed enough to do that. Well that's what I mean. The weenie band would probably be near or just south of me, but many times that nrn QPF gradient on systems with confluence to the north are a bit less than modeled. Now if it came even further north, than a whole different ball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Its often "you are either in or out" like the 3/2/06 event. 4" about 15 miles south of me...it went from 4" to nothing in less than 5 miles. Yep. I had flurries and the next town over had 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 It doesn't change a thing for my area. If any, just a bigger letdown if PVD gets a few inches and I get catpaws. the most believable aspect of this NAM run is that it seems to royally shaft boston... but otherwise, how many times has the NAM cried wolf this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Even if the NAM worked out I would probably be on the bad side of the gradient...it will be fun to watch if it plays out like the nam however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I'd like to see the Euro hold an intense band of qpf together as it comes east...the Euro has not been showing the good qpf holding together like the other models. Its all weak and diffuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Great run, verbatim this is likely a solid 6-10" event from PSF to TOL as it's keying on a narrow area of strong mid-level deformation and frontogenesis. BL will be a bit warm given the time of year, so elevation will help. Of course, big UVVs could overwhelm the BL warmth if the NAM has it's way, leading to a nice event even for the lower elevations. Yes, I think it's a bit overdone. I need to see other models get on board before I get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Someone disconnect the electricity from snowNH's house. Ha I work for them so I can easily do it my self. easiest way to do it is to take your car out of your garage. Get into the car. Turn the car on. Drive to the nearest Transmformer. and hit it. Simple enough. Guys!!!! This one is no where near done.seriously. Were 36 hours out and thats plenty of time. And the snow in the bus goes north north north and the snow in the bus goes north north north. I'm lookin at effing heavy accumulations for all of us here. Straight looking at 4-8 inches right now from a chicken macnasty deform band. Mmmmmmm I like those chicken deform bands. No Meltdown here boyds and gabs.Gonna have a great sleep. Hopefully Ill dream about laying naked on I-95 during 1978 or the rush it was to lay naked over or under destroyed trees. Having to feel like Bear and Les for a couple minutes.. So freaking amped up right now!!!! Lets GO!!!! Trend stays NORTH. I we should have an updated trend compass on the website. NORD NORD NORD... "AND THE TREND IS DUDUDU North Trend. Saved, but not denied! Awooga. See ya at 9 am boyds. PREDICTION TIME: 6z comes north. 12z comes north . Euro is a WTF?????? type of deal TAnight. I'm out fast than dat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 12z UK has QPF of about 16 mm in SW CT to about 3mm in Worcester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 12z UK has QPF of about 16 mm in SW CT to about 3mm in Worcester. If you have it handy...what did last night's Ukie give? That was a really amped up solution. Probably won't see that solution again, but it got qpf well into CNE even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Ha I work for them so I can easily do it my self. easiest way to do it is to take your car out of your garage. Get into the car. Turn the car on. Drive to the nearest Transmformer. and hit it. Simple enough. Guys!!!! This one is no where near done.seriously. Were 36 hours out and thats plenty of time. And the snow in the bus goes north north north and the snow in the bus goes north north north. I'm lookin at effing heavy accumulations for all of us here. Straight looking at 4-8 inches right now from a chicken macnasty deform band. Mmmmmmm I like those chicken deform bands. No Meltdown here boyds and gabs.Gonna have a great sleep. Hopefully Ill dream about laying naked on I-95 during 1978 or the rush it was to lay naked over or under destroyed trees. Having to feel like Bear and Les for a couple minutes.. So freaking amped up right now!!!! Lets GO!!!! Trend stays NORTH. I we should have an updated trend compass on the website. NORD NORD NORD... "AND THE TREND IS DUDUDU North Trend. Saved, but not denied! Awooga. See ya at 9 am boyds. PREDICTION TIME: 6z comes north. 12z comes north . Euro is a WTF?????? type of deal TAnight. I'm out fast than dat. What. The. F*ck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 If you have it handy...what did last night's Ukie give? That was a really amped up solution. Probably won't see that solution again, but it got qpf well into CNE even. my qpf maps are look a bit corrupted...but i think it was like 15 mm for you. It cuts the primary so far north that there is a strong snow band up near ART at 12z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Lock the Nam, It has been spot on all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 The NAM has more snow on Sunday night I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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