CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 I am guessing by "bad" he justs means no snow. IMHO, if it is the NAM, it is bad, no matter what it shows...lol Mesoscale models can be prone to large swings in solutions beyond 48hrs out. It's just how the inner workings are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 OT, I’m still wondering if it may be a hot summer. More than temperature trends alone … moisture trends in the spring also have some correlation on summer heat. Has to do with soil moisture, but not just locally, but continentally-regional. I think it’s been pretty dry overall, too. That’s sick though. ORH has had ~2” of liq over the last 60 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Good bump! The euro is rarely that wrong at this range. I'd hold until the gfs but once it and the gem fold south it's over...if that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 The tendency toward -NAO, and/or train wrecked NW Atlantic Basin in general supports the southern trends... It'll probably come back N and whale the area in the face of clad scientific reasoning why this abandoned solution should verify - It's been doing that this entire recent cold season...verifying the least probability result has been the way to go. I disagree. The problem is not the strength of the -NAO block. The problem is the strength of the jet incoming from the Pacific. It leaves no room / time for amplification / consolidation of the shortwave energy tracking across the Great Lakes. The -NAO block is really perfect actually, provided we were working with a decent shortwave. Everyone is looking for weaker confluence. Well what would happen then is just a northward shift of light snow while CT gets rain. We need a stronger shortwave to expand the precip shield northward along with higher QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I disagree. The problem is not the strength of the -NAO block. The problem is the strength of the jet incoming from the Pacific. It leaves no room / time for amplification / consolidation of the shortwave energy tracking across the Great Lakes. The -NAO block is really perfect actually, provided we were working with a decent shortwave. Everyone is looking for weaker confluence. Well what would happen then is just a northward shift of light snow while CT gets rain. We need a stronger shortwave to expand the precip shield northward along with high QPF 100% agree. The PAC is pig piling and theres just no room/time for this to be more than it is. Same stuff has repeated over and over. Models go gangbusters for some period until they realize it and then bail. Warm and dry, cool and dry some weak moisture in between. Rinse and repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I feel like the NAM will frequently have the right idea... but set that northern deformation band up way too far north. It'll show 1" of QPF for Rutland but that max really goes over Northampton lol. QPF, Max, and Northampton should never be used in the same sentence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 I disagree. The problem is not the strength of the -NAO block. The problem is the strength of the jet incoming from the Pacific. It leaves no room / time for amplification / consolidation of the shortwave energy tracking across the Great Lakes. The -NAO block is really perfect actually, provided we were working with a decent shortwave. Everyone is looking for weaker confluence. Well what would happen then is just a northward shift of light snow while CT gets rain. We need a stronger shortwave to expand the precip shield northward along with higher QPF I tend to agree re. the s/w intensity. I think both issues are kind of working together. It's a POS s/w and with that...Vim Toot can fart and send the whole thing south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 QPF, Max, and Northampton should never be used in the same sentence. lol Fair point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I tend to agree re. the s/w intensity. I think both issues are kind of working together. It's a POS s/w and with that...Vim Toot can fart and send the whole thing south. Yeah had the s/w been more consolidated/impressive you actually would have had a nice burst of lift thanks to some confluence to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 OT, I’m still wondering if it may be a hot summer. More than temperature trends alone … moisture trends in the spring also have some correlation on summer heat. Has to do with soil moisture, but not just locally, but continentally-regional. I think it’s been pretty dry overall, too. That’s sick though. ORH has had ~2” of liq over the last 60 days. I don't recall a Feb/March that has been so dry...(Jan, too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 The euro is rarely that wrong at this range. I'd hold until the gfs but once it and the gem fold south it's over...if that happens rgem appears south, so I assume the ggem will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I disagree. The problem is not the strength of the -NAO block. The problem is the strength of the jet incoming from the Pacific. It leaves no room / time for amplification / consolidation of the shortwave energy tracking across the Great Lakes. The -NAO block is really perfect actually, provided we were working with a decent shortwave. Everyone is looking for weaker confluence. Well what would happen then is just a northward shift of light snow while CT gets rain. We need a stronger shortwave to expand the precip shield northward along with higher QPF No no... the longer term stream correlation on -NAO is a further south exit latitude over eastern N/A. that's all the statement, couched in sarcasm, was intended to state. whatever.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 How do you know it's a "bad" run? It could be entirely correct, and there are reasons to support it. 00z Euro was south - I meant bad run as in no snow you dink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I don't recall a Feb/March that has been so dry...(Jan, too) 01-02 was bone dry. The sensible weather of this past winter was very similar to that disaster of a winter 10 yrs ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Scoots - the 12z 12km RPM has like 1.2" liquid for LGA... 0.25" BDL... 0" PVD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 One by one they follow the Euro..like sheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 One by one they follow the Euro..like sheep Why'd you lock in 2-4/3-6 for SNE then????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 01-02 was bone dry. The sensible weather of this past winter was very similar to that disaster of a winter 10 yrs ago People started having that 01-02 feeling in Dec. when every cold threat became modified... a cold snap progged at -20 10 days out would become -12 at 7 days then -5 at 4 days until it was realized as a dry polar front that resulted in temps a few degrees above... What a pathetic winter... it's overkill at this point but good f'in god did that absolutely blow dead rats. Buh bye... if I wanted to experience a winter in Charlotte, I'd call my uncle down there and see if he's got a spare room in the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Why'd you lock in 2-4/3-6 for SNE then????? Because this morning things looked good..and i figured a compromise between the possibly underdone Euro and other overdone models was in order. Should have stuck to my guns and only forecast off the Euro..I violated my own rules and I got burned. I did post that the Euro was disturbing to me..and sure enough it was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Because this morning things looked good..and i figured a compromise between the possibly underdone Euro and other overdone models was in order. Should have stuck to my guns and only forecast off the Euro..I violated my own rules and I got burned. I did post that the Euro was disturbing to me..and sure enough it was right. I thought the Euro was always right and always way to go. I thought you blend the other models in the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Because this morning things looked good..and i figured a compromise between the possibly underdone Euro and other overdone models was in order. Should have stuck to my guns and only forecast off the Euro..I violated my own rules and I got burned. I did post that the Euro was disturbing to me..and sure enough it was right. not to mention that nothing has worked out this year, not going to change for the better all the sudden, karma's a Bit** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Blizz is wishing Will was awake so he could piggyback on his posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Blizz is wishing Will was awake so he could piggyback on him Will is going to be distraught. He's stayed up all night for a week straight tracking this thing on overnight model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I'm stoically await the remaining models with low expectations andno qualms about qpf. Regardless of whether I get any flakes, I'm with Pete in saying that this unending torch is killing me. 37.6/32 at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Scoots - the 12z 12km RPM has like 1.2" liquid for LGA... 0.25" BDL... 0" PVD LOL, yeah it has that real narrow weenie band right over LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 gfs is going to be south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I'm stoically await the remaining models with low expectations andno qualms about qpf. Regardless of whether I get any flakes, I'm with Pete in saying that this unending torch is killing me. 37.6/32 at noon. What? He has never admitted there is a torch in the first place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I meant bad run as in no snow you dink ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Just wait until the rest of the guidance comes out before tossing yourselves off a bridge. Either way, the Fairfield torch is gone for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.