powderfreak Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 And the 12z says buh bye SNE LOL... thats a big change in one model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Rest of the 12 z runs will follow suit. That the sref's and now the NAM caving The latest SREFs were quite impressive for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Can't wait til the gfs shows a hit and everyone runs back the other way. This forum is one huge Schiess wave before an event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 The latest SREFs were quite impressive for CT. But they came south from 3z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 The latest SREFs were quite impressive for CT. let's see what the next run has--would bet they begin a trend south too if the strenght of the confluence is for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Can't wait til the gfs shows a hit and everyone runs back the other way. This forum is one huge Schiess wave before an event lol Noone should be doing anything when they see the GFS other than using it as a panty liner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 But they came south from 3z Well the snow probabilities were similar here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 happens all the time Can't wait til the gfs shows a hit and everyone runs back the other way. This forum is one huge Schiess wave before an event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Well the snow probabilities were similar here. Yeah the biggest difference was up by BOS, not necessarily SW CT..although it doesn't mean it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Everyone doubted the Euro lol...It wins again You said it was wrong..lol. Everyone held pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 You said it was wrong..lol. Everyone held pause. i think lately he forgets his own posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Yeah the biggest difference was up by BOS, not necessarily SW CT..although it doesn't mean it's right. Yeah down this way. The NAM (and srefs to some extent) like to show a ficticious secondary qpf max north. 6z NAM was a good example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 12z NAM backed way off...wow.... 0 QPF for BOS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 You said it was wrong..lol. Everyone held pause. When did I say that? I even posted it was disturbing it was so bad. Ginx just piggybacks off anything you say..Have you noticed that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Yeah down this way. The NAM (and srefs to some extent) like to show a ficticious secondary qpf max north. 6z NAM was a good example. I did notice the SREFs and NAM had a little deformation band on the north side of the QPF area. I actually buy that, but where does it set up? Mt TOL? NJ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I did notice the SREFs and NAM had a little deformation band on the north side of the QPF area. I actually buy that, but where does it set up? Mt TOL? NJ?? I feel like the NAM will frequently have the right idea... but set that northern deformation band up way too far north. It'll show 1" of QPF for Rutland but that max really goes over Northampton lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 When did I say that? I even posted it was disturbing it was so bad. Ginx just piggybacks off anything you say..Have you noticed that? I thought you wanted to throw it out by saying it was going to snow a lot. I'm only using Kevin logic here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 I feel like the NAM will frequently have the right idea... but set that northern deformation band up way too far north. It'll show 1" of QPF for Rutland but that max really goes over Northampton lol. Yeah it does that. I was laughing at the 06z NAM at work. What a weenie run..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 As I said elsewhere this am and here a day or so ago. Throw out the American guidance if the euro is the other way at this range. And pity the fools that believed it and went against the euro inside of 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 But 1.2” total to 0.0 in a single run – haha. This winter won't stop tormenting to the bitter end.... Even now that the winter is dead, it somehow miraculously rises from the grave just to get one one last face smack.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Lol one bad run and people jump ship...wtf How do you know it's a "bad" run? It could be entirely correct, and there are reasons to support it. 00z Euro was south - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Storm gets crushed in the confluence on the 12Z NAM. I had a feeling last night's runs were overdoing it and underestimating the impact of the confluence. Euro FTW(L) again? Confluence is not the biggest influence on the forecast. Though obviously a factor, the primary difference between the model runs is the consolidation of the shortwave energy tracking eastward. There is a lot of disorganized vorticity that can interfere either constructively or destructively. We can see this as early as 12-18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Confluence is not the biggest influence on the forecast. Though obviously a factor, the primary difference between the model runs is the consolidation of the shortwave energy tracking eastward. There is a lot of disorganized vorticity that can interfere either constructively or destructively. We can see this as early as 12-18 hours. Yeah I think this is the bigger issue here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 As of now you'd have to go for a 2-4 or 3-6 type event for a large portion of interior SNE for Fri nite/Sat AM.. euro? Piggyback this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Jeez..I'm kidding with Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Confluence is not the biggest influence on the forecast. Though obviously a factor, the primary difference between the model runs is the consolidation of the shortwave energy tracking eastward. There is a lot of disorganized vorticity that can interfere either constructively or destructively. We can see this as early as 12-18 hours. The tendency toward -NAO, and/or train wrecked NW Atlantic Basin in general supports the southern trends... It'll probably come back N and whale the area in the face of clad scientific reasoning why this abandoned solution should verify - It's been doing that this entire recent cold season...verifying the least probability result has been the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 But 1.2” total to 0.0 in a single run – haha. This winter won't stop tormenting to the bitter end.... Even now that the winter is dead, it somehow miraculously rises from the grave just to get one one last face smack.... The C.D. is such a tease... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 euro? Piggyback this Good bump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 euro? Piggyback this What does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 How do you know it's a "bad" run? It could be entirely correct, and there are reasons to support it. 00z Euro was south - I am guessing by "bad" he justs means no snow. IMHO, if it is the NAM, it is bad, no matter what it shows...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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