H2Otown_WX Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Good grief what a clown solution on the GGEM by D4-5...it might have high temps in the low 40s under sunny skies while the GFS is like 68F with high dews as we warm sector....GGEM has us under the core of CAA on the backsid eof a strong ULL. I don't understand why the NWS is going so warm for Saturday. Don't you think all of SNE is going to be 45F or lower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I don't understand why the NWS is going so warm for Saturday. Don't you think all of SNE is going to be 45F or lower? Its all about precip...if we are hanging onto light snow or R/S mix as it lightens up, there is no chance we hit 45...but if we clear a bit then it could be mid to upper 40s easy...also if we stay north of the precip and the whole thing whiffs south, then we'd be well into the 40s to even near 50. I don't think we are hitting 55F though. NWS has been playing it that this misses south, but we'll see if they revise it after the 00z suite. Euro will be a big run...every run has come north so far but the Euro can make it all a buzzkill if it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Still feeling a bit uneasy with the euro south at 12z...but all guidance at 00z has come north, so I'm getting more optimistic. I think there's a good chance for snow there...the only issue being is you are closest to the confluence being in NE MA, so the precip might dry and weaken as it gets there...but in a more robust solution like the Ukie, that is good for you as it protects you from mid-level warming so you would probably clean up in that scenario. I'll say this...if you get solid qpf, you will probaly get several inches of slop. I think the question there is qpf and not really temps...obviously it might start as a mix or light rain, but quickly go to snow...you are seasoned enough to know the deal in late March/April on that front though.. "FU ne MA" in classic 2012 style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I'm heading to bed....rip me off a text RE the EURO, Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 "FU ne MA" in classic 2012 style. Well at least you got something in the 2/29-3/1 storm...I think BOS has been taken out back to your beast of man shed worse than NE MA now after that storm....before that storm, you probably had about equal claim to the screw job relative to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I'm heading to bed....rip me off a text RE the EURO, Will. Will do...it will probably say "beast of a man" though, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 GEFS are a good deal north too. Brings the 0.25" qpf line to the pike now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 What time does the Euro start running now during DST? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 What time does the Euro start running now during DST? About 1:45 instead of 12:45. Its a killer now because of DST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Euro came north but is still pretty terrible verbatim....maybe a sloppy inch for the highest terrain in NW CT and W MA. The trend is definitely north, but I was hoping the Euro would jump a little further than it did....but it's vortmax track is actually decent, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it increase qpf in future runs. It got a bit ground up by the confluence, but it wasn't horrific looking. It was definitely an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Euro came north but is still pretty terrible verbatim....maybe a sloppy inch for the highest terrain in NW CT and W MA. The trend is definitely north, but I was hoping the Euro would jump a little further than it did....but it's vortmax track is actually decent, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it increase qpf in future runs. It got a bit ground up by the confluence, but it wasn't horrific looking. It was definitely an improvement. Well at least we're seeing some improvement... hopefully it'll keep trending in the right direction. Does the Euro still seem to be the furthest south of all the main 0z models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Holy mother of God on the Euro in the long range...that ULL destroys us into a vortex of cold and dreary weather...prob snow showers and such. Not that far off from backing in a monster storm either from the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Well at least we're seeing some improvement... hopefully it'll keep trending in the right direction. Does the Euro still seem to be the furthest south of all the main 0z models? Yes Euro is definitely the furthest south at 00z...which is annoying since the Euro is the most skilled model, but its had some wild swings recently, which supports the notion that this is not set in stone by a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Thanks for the play by play Will. Looking better for some snow. Have you chosen the beer that you'll have Blizz buy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Thanks for the play by play Will. Looking better for some snow. Have you chosen the beer that you'll have Blizz buy? Don't jinx me Pete...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 SREFs made a good jump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Impressive north trend on the SREF probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 06z NAM is still rocking for a good portion of SNE...big hit for Berkshires and ORH hills....and even decent snow to Ray's area. Socks looks like the jackpot on 06z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Interesting model solutions last night. Glad I waited until this morning to see how things look. The s/w on the euro is still rather disorganized which is why the solution is blah, but all the other global guidance improved. In fact, 06z NAM is too far north for CT now..lol. 06z GFS rolling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I think it's going to snow ..alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 06z GFS is a tick north. Good snow to I-90 now. Mix moving into srn CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 The second shortwave over Buffalo at 12z Saturday is more robust on the 06z. That may be why it ticked north. There are a lot of moving parts here so things may still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 That's a good hit for Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Kind of a bummer to see the EC/EC ens so crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Euro has another snow event for areas in CNE Monday. Canadian has snow for SNE..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I think it's going to snow ..alot I'm not sure how since the only model worth looking at is meh right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Kind of a bummer to see the EC/EC ens so crappy. Yeah seeing that is good reason to not be so bullish right now, but I think it may come around a bit at 12z. Hey, looks good for you Monday..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 LOL, we may have to watch Monday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 heh heh heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 LOL, we may have to watch Monday too. Are these snow threats just for the coastal plain or do folks in the higher elevations have a chance at seeing some snow? It seems like you guys hog all the snow and it would be nice if we got some for a change. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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