RobbieL241 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Probably rain/sleet along the south coast(naturally the day I get home) and snow inland with the ESE fetch off the Atlantic. Nam's timing is great for valley locations(ending by 15z) probably anything after 12z will be tough to accumulate unless its really coming down. Probably a 5-6" jackpot in the Berks, 1-4" elsewhere depending on elevation, verbatim. All melted by afternoon at least in the valleys with the April (March) sun and temps rising into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 This is probably the most realistic clown map for the 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 This is probably the most realistic clown map for the 00z NAM Wouldn't that put a nice cap on the crappy winter. I'd take 2-3 and be happy, then go into hibernation until next winter. You get your 2 plus, and a beer from Kev, and litchfield gets no snow which is just the way he seems to like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Well that NAM run was fun...probably time for a buzzkill now from a slew of global models. However, the RGEM is pretty far north at 48 hours...probably not as far north as the NAM but it would probably get at least part of the region if not most of us trying to extrapolate out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Well that NAM run was fun...probably time for a buzzkill now from a slew of global models. However, the RGEM is pretty far north at 48 hours...probably not as far north as the NAM but it would probably get at least part of the region if not most of us trying to extrapolate out. not for me it wasnt lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 GFS is lot further north than 18z....but still probaly not quite enough for SNE...but its a big shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 GFS doesn't look all that bad either, especially for CT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 GFS doesn't look all that bad either, especially for CT! Some good qpf into CT but the southern half of the state is probably mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Some good qpf into CT but the southern half of the state is probably mostly rain. Yeah the GFS is certainly much warmer than the NAM is...why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Soundings for HVN/GON are pretty damn close...I would think the heavier precip rates would lead to more in the way of snow but there could be an issue with getting accumulations. For HFD I would think we remain pretty much all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Yeah the GFS is certainly much warmer than the NAM is...why is that? The lift is a bit weaker...the overall system is less dynamical on the GFS which probably at least partially is leading to a warmer solution. But this will probably be mostly snow anyway for a good chunk of SNE if it gets far enough north for meaningful precip....the southern parts near and adjacent to the south coast of CT would be the areas that are most likely to see rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I'll take the 10 inches. LOL until 12Z taketh away. This is probably the most realistic clown map for the 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 The lift is a bit weaker...the overall system is less dynamical on the GFS which probably at last partially is leading to a warmer solution. But this will probably be mostly snow anyway for a good chunk of SNE if it gets far enough north for meaningful precip....the southern parts near and adjacent to the south coast of CT would be the areas that are most likely to see rain. I guess it really shouldn't come as a surprise to see the GFS come in weaker than the NAM with respect to lift and dynamical nature...NAM tends to usually be the more aggressive model anyways. I would still take the GFS though, would likely still see a few inches of snow here. Plus for the people that are complaining about snow (not on the board but people I've talked to) this really shouldn't be too much of a bother to them, it's going to melt within a day anyway. I just hope we see the Euro on board with a northward shift as well, all new data today has been rather consistent with a more northward track and that is certainly encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I just hope we see the Euro on board with a northward shift as well, all new data today has been rather consistent with a more northward track and that is certainly encouraging. Yeah it should be really interesting to see what the new Euro says... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Ukie is pretty amped through 48h...waiting on 60h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Wow, Ukie is way north at 60 hours...it has the rain/snow line around the CT/MA border at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Wow, Ukie is way north at 60 hours...it has the rain/snow line around the CT/MA border at that time. Well the north is good but not THAT far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Well the north is good but not THAT far north Big hit for the Berkshires to ORH and probably to a slightly lesser extent, BOS metro. Looks like a good stripe of warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Big hit for the Berkshires to ORH and probably to a slightly lesser extent, BOS metro. Looks like a good stripe of warning criteria. Sounds like I would be awfully close to the rain/snow line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Sounds like I would be awfully close to the rain/snow line? Yes..on the Ukie its really close there. Tolland might stay snow, but probably not verbatim on that run. The 850 line gets near you but the core of the warm punch is probably above 850mb so I think the R/S line would prob be about 20 miles north of it....but hard to say for sure. There would def be snow there though, but it probably would flip at some point before flipping back before ending. Regardless, that is northern outlier at the moment. GFS is furthest south so far at 00z, Ukie furthest north and NAM in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Wow.....nice time to awaken from my wx\board coma...Will, think I grab a some slop (SNOW) on Friday night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Big hit for the Berkshires to ORH and probably to a slightly lesser extent, BOS metro. Looks like a good stripe of warning criteria. It's definitely nice to see that the Ukie/GFS/NAM are all hinting at the potential for at least advisory level snowfall with some warnings criteria accumulations possible in spots as well. Although I think I would be shocked if we saw a solution the Ukie has with the system tracking that far north given the confluence that will be just to our north and such...perhaps the confluence breaks down fast enough and moves out but not really sold on that happen just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 GGEM is pretty solidly north too...looks like advisory snow for the higher terrain...maybe a 1-3 job for the lower spot...ptype issues south near and south of central CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Yes..on the Ukie its really close there. Tolland might stay snow, but probably not verbatim on that run. The 850 line gets near you but the core of the warm punch is probably above 850mb so I think the R/S line would prob be about 20 miles north of it....but hard to say for sure. There would def be snow there though, but it probably would flip at some point before flipping back before ending. Regardless, that is northern outlier at the moment. GFS is furthest south so far at 00z, Ukie furthest north and NAM in between. Sounds good, thanks for the info! Wonder what solution the Euro will have... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Wow.....nice time to awaken from my wx\board coma...Will, think I grab a some slop (SNOW) on Friday night... Still feeling a bit uneasy with the euro south at 12z...but all guidance at 00z has come north, so I'm getting more optimistic. I think there's a good chance for snow there...the only issue being is you are closest to the confluence being in NE MA, so the precip might dry and weaken as it gets there...but in a more robust solution like the Ukie, that is good for you as it protects you from mid-level warming so you would probably clean up in that scenario. I'll say this...if you get solid qpf, you will probaly get several inches of slop. I think the question there is qpf and not really temps...obviously it might start as a mix or light rain, but quickly go to snow...you are seasoned enough to know the deal in late March/April on that front though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Off to bed...will check the Euro in the AM. I would love to stay up for it but I seriously need to stop this going to bed at 4 AM and sleeping to 1 PM in the afternoon. Perhaps if I awake during the middle of the night I'll check in her with my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 GFS has another SWFE in the long range around 4/9. Its like a mid-winter pattern, lol. Ironic that it tries to happen now when we were waiting for it all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 GFS has another SWFE in the long range around 4/9. Its like a mid-winter pattern, lol. Ironic that it tries to happen now when we were waiting for it all winter. At least the weather looks nice in Detroit for Wednesday...although it might be a little chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Good grief what a clown solution on the GGEM by D4-5...it might have high temps in the low 40s under sunny skies while the GFS is like 68F with high dews as we warm sector....GGEM has us under the core of CAA on the backsid eof a strong ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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