CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 GEFS looked like they were a bit north of 12z...several members are not bad for CT. Def still have to watch this Saturday threat even though we might be leaning toward a miss right now I saw those. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Wow, they usually go extreme and/or hug the goofus, so I was shocked to see this forecast. Below normal early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Wow, they usually go extreme and/or hug the goofus, so I was shocked to see this forecast. Below normal early next week. Mets here having none of it: http://www.wwlp.com/subindex/weather/7_day_forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Will there be mass casualties? Whatever weather happens, it will likely be historic and record breaking, with widespread power outages and a huge death toll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I think its likely bdl maybe +10-15 for the month of April by Thursday am, what happens after that who knows, ens suggest cooler times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 ewr 65......bdr......48, nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 BS lol, you are thinking the same thing i am, give us some snow, one last snow sat, then torch. I would love to see some final flakes. I have seen your multiple bookend posts!! Months above, just months, embrace the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 wasnt there llike an epic snowstorm on the models a few days ago or soemthing?? now we are torching again lol...wow it never ends lol one thing of note that i saw in the ny metro forum: since the late 1800s the avg temp has increased more than five degrees, i do not know much about global warming or anything but five degrees is a lot as far as I am concerned. Some guy Uncle W posted the information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 SREFs bumped a good bit north than 15z. Looking better for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Just had another good shower, more enroute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Not bad at all considering what 15z had and the fact that its 60 hours out. Hopefully the NAM goes N too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 If any part of SNE is able to warm sector next Tuesday or Wednesday we could stand a chance for some decent convection...possible low topped squall line with gusty winds/small hail. Pretty intense system/front approaching. However, often times in these setups we often see warm fronts struggle to lift through much of the region. I could see a threat for severe though across parts of PA/NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 If any part of SNE is able to warm sector next Tuesday or Wednesday we could stand a chance for some decent convection...possible low topped squall line with gusty winds/small hail. Pretty intense system/front approaching. However, often times in these setups we often see warm fronts struggle to lift through much of the region. I could see a threat for severe though across parts of PA/NY. I just had some thunder and lightning here. Loud too. Shook the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I just had some thunder and lightning here. Loud too. Shook the house. Yeah..been reading about it on twitter. I guess there was also small hail today across parts of southern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Yeah..been reading about it on twitter. I guess there was also small hail today across parts of southern CT. That part missed me. But right now a cell just blew up over my county and it had been pouring for about 30 mins now. More lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Not bad at all considering what 15z had and the fact that its 60 hours out. Hopefully the NAM goes N too. hmm, has me as a slim chance of 8 lol. not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Some of the ETA SREF members are pretty good looking. The shortwave is more amped up on the NAM through 36 hours but that is a lot of confluence it has to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 hmm, has me as a slim chance of 8 lol. not happening Well you could be in a good spot for a few inches though, high elevations of NJ could be better off then me in this storm unless it trends north more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 That part missed me. But right now a cell just blew up over my county and it had been pouring for about 30 mins now. More lightning. None of that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Some of the ETA SREF members are pretty good looking. The shortwave is more amped up on the NAM through 36 hours but that is a lot of confluence it has to overcome. Do you want to have at least a little bit of confluence in this case or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Wow, nam looks pretty far north at 42. We'll see how it plays out on this run but it looks good so far. Looks like 75 miles north of 18z through 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Do you want to have at least a little bit of confluence in this case or no? Well yeah, you want some confluence because that is what is supplying the cold air but you don't want too much. Its a delicate setup and the Goldilocks syndrome when it comes to the confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 None of that here. I think the high DP's helped us out. I have another cell heading here. There was a good one over SE CT earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 On a side note, could be another cold night tomorrow night...esp interior. MOS hasn't really bought it yet but 2m temps into the 20s on the Euro and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Well yeah, you want some confluence because that is what is supplying the cold air but you don't want too much. Its a delicate setup and the Goldilocks syndrome when it comes to the confluence. Compared to 18z the confluence through 42HR on the 0z run looks a tad stronger than it did on the 18z run, however, the vort max is also quite stronger this run...in fact even some -15 VV's showing up over MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I think the high DP's helped us out. I have another cell heading here. There was a good one over SE CT earlier. I didn't really look much at the setup or anything but the warm front is held up around that area so there is probably a decent amount of elevated instability (or was) and there is probably some decent helicity too which would have helped to aid in the small hailers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 NAM is going to be a good run...at least for CT, we'll see how far north it comes but it looks pretty far north through 48h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 This run looks awesome so far! By 48HR the confluence has broken down and the system is pretty far north enough to where it should impact CT...decent plume of moisture associated with the system and some really good lift as well, especially when that closed off 850 low tracks just to our south. 2-4''?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I didn't really look much at the setup or anything but the warm front is held up around that area so there is probably a decent amount of elevated instability (or was) and there is probably some decent helicity too which would have helped to aid in the small hailers. I was I school so I really did not look too much into it either. But I'm done with snow. I'm in severe Wx mode now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 This run to going to smoke all of SNE I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.