das Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Wow those are some really nice loops!! With the core disrupted, do you think this will still be able to intensify back to typhoon?? Probably, yes although the current weakening exceeded the forecast weakening by a bit. The storm will be in a favorable environment for the next 48 hours or so with good SST's and excellent outflow to the south. It's forecast to do a counterclockwise loop which will bring it into an increasingly hostile environment due to interaction with very strong TY Bolaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Probably, yes although the current weakening exceeded the forecast weakening by a bit. The storm will be in a favorable environment for the next 48 hours or so with good SST's and excellent outflow to the south. It's forecast to do a counterclockwise loop which will bring it into an increasingly hostile environment due to interaction with very strong TY Bolaven. Nice loops... Since the system tracked WSW up to landfall, the land interaction was more of a glancing blow rather than full on knockout of the central core, but there is an interesting bend back to the WNW after it emerged on the other side of Taiwan. I'm almost positive its terrain related although it moved in an unpredictable fashion unlike what previous research has shown for TC's over Taiwan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Bolaven is blowing up today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 some intense microwave imagery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Looks quite close to super typhoon status, judging by the latest imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Looks quite close to super typhoon status, judging by the latest imagery. Vis/IR looks sharp. Nice trochoidal wobbles: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 some intense microwave imagery Meanwhile Tembin has been gutted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Wow, Daito Islands starting to report Tropical Storm winds!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Hard to find anything wrong with Bolaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Huge hit on Okinawa...Cat 4 on the other side still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I think it's relatively rare to see the potential for a cat 1 direct hit in North Korea...I can't remember it happening *that* often... I know they get a lot of remnant/dying out stuff (or storms that hit South Korea that they're in the northern side of) that can flood them but to get a path where something hits head on is relatively (I would think) rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Microwave data indicates Bolaven has about three or four open concentric eyewalls, not surprising given the warmer cloud tops today, possible dry air entrainment, and large size of the storm. Given the internal structure, Bolaven is probably a strong Cat 2 in reality right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Meanwhile Isaac's been struggling to get a partial ring for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Microwave data indicates Bolaven has about three or four open concentric eyewalls, not surprising given the warmer cloud tops today, possible dry air entrainment, and large size of the storm. Given the internal structure, Bolaven is probably a strong Cat 2 in reality right now. lolz, looks like a cinnamon roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 It looks very, very cool, but I wonder what that structure means in terms of the wind radii. Like, are there three distinct maxima, and do the outer two sap energy from the inner one, or...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Microwave data indicates Bolaven has about three or four open concentric eyewalls, not surprising given the warmer cloud tops today, possible dry air entrainment, and large size of the storm. Given the internal structure, Bolaven is probably a strong Cat 2 in reality right now. Latest updates have the pressure at 920 mb and still 125 kt sustained winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 It looks very, very cool, but I wonder what that structure means in terms of the wind radii. Like, are there three distinct maxima, and do the outer two sap energy from the inner one, or...? Yup. "The axisymmetric equivalent potential temperature budget analysis reveals that the demise of the inner eyewall is primarily due to the interception of the boundary layer inflow supply of entropy by the outer convective ring..." http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2011JAS3575.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Tembin has recovered nicely after interacting with Taiwan, and will probably reintensify to major status again: The GFS and Euro agree that Tembin and the much large Bolaven will undergo a Fujiwhara interaction that will take Tembin across Taiwan a second time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 bed time soon. But I'll be checking again. I suspect the anemometer may not survive. RODN 260415Z AUTO 01027G43KT 2SM RA BR OVC021 26/26 A2883 RMK AO2 PK WND 02045/0402 PRESFR SLP764 976 mb already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 06Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 i'm kinda starting to doubt the intensity of this system.. sure the pressure reports are impressive (nearly 3hpa per hour drop) but none of the stations on JMA are reporting typhoon-force sustained... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 i'm kinda starting to doubt the intensity of this system.. sure the pressure reports are impressive (nearly 3hpa per hour drop) but none of the stations on JMA are reporting typhoon-force sustained... Not yet, anyway, and pressure has started to rise. RODN 261325Z AUTO 27037G49KT 1 1/4SM R05/1600V3500FT -RA BR OVC005 27/27 A2817 RMK AO2 PK WND 28049/1314 PRESRR SLP538 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Yeah, I'm a bit surprised at the wind reports from Okinawa. The JTWC reports winds in the 40-50-kt range. What's been the highest 10-min wind so far? That inner eyewall passed right over the island, I believe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Yup. "The axisymmetric equivalent potential temperature budget analysis reveals that the demise of the inner eyewall is primarily due to the interception of the boundary layer inflow supply of entropy by the outer convective ring..." http://journals.amet...5/2011JAS3575.1 Thanks! I wonder if that's the explanation for the rather tepid surface obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Bolaven is a very large strom with a spread out windfield but a very small core of strongest winds which were probably located north of the eye. Backside could be heftier though. We saw this with Irma where the storm was large but on the leading side the strong winds were confined to the eyewall while the backside raged for hours. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Bolaven is a very large strom with a spread out windfield but a very small core of strongest winds which were probably located north of the eye. Backside could be heftier though. We saw this with Irma where the storm was large but on the leading side the strong winds were confined to the eyewall while the backside raged for hours. Steve Strongest winds so far with the center well past and pressure up 26 mb from thr minimum RODN 262007Z AUTO 22045G59KT 2SM R05/3000V3500FT +RA BR OVC012 26/26 A2887 RMK AO2 PK WND 22059/1959 PRESRR SLP775 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Wow, their max was 45 kt (10-min) with a gust to 59? Were they in the eye?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Kadena is probably around 20 miles or so to the south of the eye... Nago (where the eye moved through) reported a minimum pressure of 934hPa which is still very impressive despite the lack of typhoon winds; i think this is the lowest pressure ever recorded in Okinawa (gotta check this)... an airport just north of Okinawa reported sustained 60kt winds.. highest gust i could ever find was around 85kt... an islet east of Okinawa stopped reporting roughly 6 hours before landfall yesterday but i don't it recorded higher winds... James Reynolds was in Higashi which is where the eye moved across... he reported calm conditions at one point so could've been right in the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Wow, their max was 45 kt (10-min) with a gust to 59? We're they in the eye?? Would have thought they were in the eywall... Maybe not. But it sure looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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