patrick05 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 A few hours? Landfall is about 24 hr away. But, yeah, it is looking really good on recent imagery. Given how much time James has had to plan and wait for it, I'm hoping he's going to perfectly punch this one. The JTWC moves it in a straight line, toward the coast at a right angle, strengthening up to 120 kt at landfall. You don't get a cleaner, better setup than that. oops, earlier today they were forecasting a landfall at 23/06z now it's 24/00z... anyway, yeah James said on his tweet he's at Chenggong in Taitung County... if Tembin continues to move west, he might be very near the landfall point... looks like Chenggong is a fairly sized town, safe place yet right at the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Tembin is going to be a major league hit for Taiwan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 just amazing to watch.. potential Cat 4 landfall for Taiwan and also a possible Cat 4 hit for Okinawa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I'm suppose to fly into Jeju, South Korea on Sunday night for a meeting...strongly considering cancellation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Radar image of Tembin. Beautiful structure. Big hit for them for sure. Lanyu (the Southern island offshore to the East) has had sustain TS winds with 60 mph gusts last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Damn! Very nice recovery by Tembin, anyone chasing there will get a good typhoon. Compact size and a bit farther south than forecasted might have helped to counteract mountain interaction...could still get adversely affected, but it will be very close to landfall, and intensity wont vary much (sort of like Karl, but a little stronger). Radar . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Damn! Very nice recovery by Tembin, anyone chasing there will get a good typhoon. Compact size and a bit farther south than forecasted might have helped to counteract mountain interaction...could still get adversely affected, but it will be very close to landfall, and intensity wont vary much (sort of like Karl, but a little stronger). Radar . Its a shame its about to be majorly disrupted by the Taiwan terrain. We should see the eye start to lose definition even before the center crosses the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 No clue as to elevation of reading, but this station http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/real/46762.htm on close to south eyewall recorded 65 mph sustained w/109 mph gust last hour. Unsure what is used for sustained wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 No clue as to elevation of reading, but this station http://www.cwb.gov.t.../real/46762.htm on close to south eyewall recorded 65 mph sustained w/109 mph gust last hour. Unsure what is used for sustained wind. Pretty much sure it is 10-min sustained winds...up to 65kts sustained (near 75kts 1min)...and that's from the weaker side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 We are currently in TCCOR 3Destructive sustained winds of 50 knots or greater expected within 48 hours. Initiate a general clean-up around your home, apartment and office. Pick up loose items, such as toys, garden tools and lawn furniture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 A thing of beauty. Lanyu, the obs station in the link above is the island near the S eyewall in the image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Have a friend who moved to Tainan last November after living in Md. all his life. This will be his first typhoon. He's counting on the mountains to wreck the storm before it reaches the western part of the island. Last email I had from him an hour ago says nothing has been cancelled for the morning there yet, and that decisions won't be made until 5 a.m. Apparently, there was a lot of outcry previously when schools and businesses closed and the expected storm didn't produce severe conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Lanyu 78 mph 10-min sustained (~90 mph 1-min) 122 mph gust in South eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Dawu station will probably be in the eye, which is rounder, better defined and surrounded by very cold cloud tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Looking like a Cat 4 landfall here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Those radar shots are gorgeous-- wow. I wonder how it would look on our radar, though, as I noticed Soala last week also looked mega-amazing (right before it disintegrated). The JTWC has it at 105 kt-- a Cat 3. The MW imagery from earlier today looked really solid, however, with a thick, complete, closed eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 It's interesting how symmetric it looks, despite the interaction with mountainous terrain. You just never know with the whole mountainous-terrain factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Dawu station will probably be in the eye, which is rounder, better defined and surrounded by very cold cloud tops Here's a radarloop, compliments of the Taiwan CWB. I can ask for the zoomed-in loop from the southern end of the island, if anyone is interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Great loop!! It does look like it's intensifying up to landfall-- wow. Also interesting is the big S wobble as it gets near the coast-- kind of like what Saola did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 It could be a wobble but I'm not so sure given the larger storm moving up the backside and the forecast loop after Taiwan which strongly suggests a binary interaction is occurring or about to. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Great loop!! It does look like it's intensifying up to landfall-- wow. Also interesting is the big S wobble as it gets near the coast-- kind of like what Saola did. Here's a link to the closeup on the southern end of the island. https://yvu0og.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pzi7WrALi0nJz4rQDOKmBkDpM8NIGwrpSan43kvccixjVHpoiZPVgaFh4wYSobwRpJQBW7R4m1KUqnpOjoOLI8Sj0vhMK5Ykf/Tembin%20HiRez.gif I won't embed it so that it does not slow down the thread. Just for kicks, I'll ask for another FTP dump in the morning so anyone interested can see the full duration loop as the storm transits the island (and maybe starts the forecasted loop). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Dawu station will probably be in the eye, which is rounder, better defined and surrounded by very cold cloud tops Nice, Dawu reporting 25kts 10min sustained, with a gust to 95kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Here's a link to the closeup on the southern end of the island. https://yvu0og.blu.l...embin HiRez.gif I won't embed it so that it does not slow down the thread. Just for kicks, I'll ask for another FTP dump in the morning so anyone interested can see the full duration loop as the storm transits the island (and maybe starts the forecasted loop). Nice loop! The wsw motion is pretty interesting right now... not really well forecasted by the JWTC. However, it does look like the motion was well forecasted by the GFS as the storm begins to interact with the Taiwan terrain. The eye will probably collapse in the next 3-6 hours as the energy starts to transfer to the lee cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Here's a link to the closeup on the southern end of the island. https://yvu0og.blu.l...embin HiRez.gif I won't embed it so that it does not slow down the thread. Just for kicks, I'll ask for another FTP dump in the morning so anyone interested can see the full duration loop as the storm transits the island (and maybe starts the forecasted loop). Omg-- that is just sooooo beautiful, Yummy yummy yummy. Thank you for posting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Money shot of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Dawu obs are kinda strange. Peak of 45kts 10min sustained with a gust to 110kts?? Also, looking at the map, they should have been in the eye, but obs shows as if they missed it to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Those radar shots are gorgeous-- wow. I wonder how it would look on our radar, though, as I noticed Soala last week also looked mega-amazing (right before it disintegrated). The color scale is a bit misconceiving compared to the standard NWS dBZ color scale here. Most color scales you see around here have reds starting at 50 dbz and yellows at 35-40 dBZ, compared to the scale we're seeing in thsi thread which has 40 and 25 for red and yellow respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Team Okinawa, Take this message seriously; your life may depend on it! I can't stress enough how dangerous this typhoon may be when it hits Okinawa. This is the most powerful typhoon forecast to hit the island in 13 years; we expect damaging winds to arrive by early Sunday morning. So be prepared! Take the time today and tomorrow to secure your outdoor items, and get the supplies you need t... o whether this storm. Tie down your outdoor items and work with your neighbors to help them--especially those whose spouses are deployed/TDY/TAD. During the typhoon, do not go outside. With expected sustained winds of 140 miles per hour and gusts up to 170 mph, anything not tied down, even smaller items, could become a deadly projectile. This is not just another typhoon. If we all follow the typhoon procedures and take care of each other, we will all make it safe through this typhoon. God Bless and Stay safe! Brig Gen Matt Molloy 18th Wing Commander JTWC predicting a direct hit from a Cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Nice loop! The wsw motion is pretty interesting right now... not really well forecasted by the JWTC. However, it does look like the motion was well forecasted by the GFS as the storm begins to interact with the Taiwan terrain. The eye will probably collapse in the next 3-6 hours as the energy starts to transfer to the lee cyclone. The collapse is well represented in both of these loops. Those 2,000m-3,300m mountains in the northern circulation did quite a number on the core. Island-wide radar (31mb): https://yvu0og.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pIYluYeQGgdKQbUw79kNkMO-YvMcJR_zY3-__E1bL7TQpWSOucKlVUHlmVdmf9QL1w1LsZPwEaVgZbl_8W7PdNChJQgAlVFzI/Tembin%20Full.gif Southern end zoomed radar (20mb): https://yvu0og.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pMTHjltTcolDGWSsjY_1LUbQRft-EngO6Eg4IJq5kXinj5M4uZhICnL7GZWTNsnqnUd5wsh1kGy6deKqi0pPbJUgojrThAuHX/Tembin%20HiRez%20Full.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 The collapse is well represented in both of these loops. Those 2,000m-3,300m mountains in the northern circulation did quite a number on the core. Island-wide radar (31mb): https://yvu0og.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pIYluYeQGgdKQbUw79kNkMO-YvMcJR_zY3-__E1bL7TQpWSOucKlVUHlmVdmf9QL1w1LsZPwEaVgZbl_8W7PdNChJQgAlVFzI/Tembin%20Full.gif Southern end zoomed radar (20mb): https://yvu0og.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pMTHjltTcolDGWSsjY_1LUbQRft-EngO6Eg4IJq5kXinj5M4uZhICnL7GZWTNsnqnUd5wsh1kGy6deKqi0pPbJUgojrThAuHX/Tembin%20HiRez%20Full.gif Wow those are some really nice loops!! With the core disrupted, do you think this will still be able to intensify back to typhoon?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.