patrick05 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 microwave is improving... RI possible?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 5, 2012 Author Share Posted August 5, 2012 U_Thant FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 monsoonal breakdown many tropical cyclones this pattern is fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 while Haikui is about to make landfall in Eastern China, there are fears of Typhoon Ketsana Part II in the Philippines right now as the SW Monsoon continues to bring torrential rainfall in Luzon... many stations reporting a foot of rain fell in less than 24 hours... much of Manila and surrounding provinces are experiencing widespread flooding, dams overflowing, rivers swelling... rains are expected to continue for another 2 days--could weaken tomorrow when Haikui makes landfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 while Haikui is about to make landfall in Eastern China, there are fears of Typhoon Ketsana Part II in the Philippines right now as the SW Monsoon continues to bring torrential rainfall in Luzon... many stations reporting a foot of rain fell in less than 24 hours... much of Manila and surrounding provinces are experiencing widespread flooding, dams overflowing, rivers swelling... rains are expected to continue for another 2 days--could weaken tomorrow when Haikui makes landfall... The damage from this event could exceed what happened with Ketsana as 472mm (18.58") of rain has fallen in Quezon City in just the past 22 hours. This is is more than what occurred in 2009 with Ketsana when 455mm (17.91") fell in a 24 hour period. Looks like the heavy rains will continue for the next 24 hours so things are looking pretty dire at this point. I have friends who live in and around Manila and I can attest that the situation is pretty dire there today based on the many pictures and comments posted on their Facebook pages. The entire city is virtually shut down. Thought I would share this one picture that was posted a couple of hours ago on a friend's wall. I personally would take my chances in the water rather than scaling the power lines as some in this picture have decided to do. I am sure the power has been shut down, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 How about this: A system northwest of Hawaii which the CPHC has been watching the last few days has been given a 0% chance of development. The JTWC has issued a tropical cyclone formation alert for the same system and has labeled the chances of development as high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 How about this: A system northwest of Hawaii which the CPHC has been watching the last few days has been given a 0% chance of development. The JTWC has issued a tropical cyclone formation alert for the same system and has labeled the chances of development as high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Looks like a badly sheared tropical depression to me. I can see why there would be a formation alert and a lemon at the same time. Unless things improve (haven't been watching this) it isn't long for the world, but it probably had convection bursting near/over the center before sunrise. ETA: Oh, its North of 30º, like one of our will they or won't they name it STS's we have in the North Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Looks like a badly sheared tropical depression to me. I can see why there would be a formation alert and a lemon at the same time. Unless things improve (haven't been watching this) it isn't long for the world, but it probably had convection bursting near/over the center before sunrise. ETA: Oh, its North of 30º, like one of our will they or won't they name it STS's we have in the North Atlantic. I agree. Looks like one of those subjective cases where there may be a closed circulation / closed minimum SLP isbar and one center defines that as genesis while the other center says the circulation does not meet the sustained deep convection criteria and therefore not genesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Manila is not equipped to handle heavy rain at any time which given the facts of the Summer monsoon is inexcusable. This was even a problem back in 1905 when a study pointed out remedies which were never carried out but either the American colonial Admin or subsequent Filipino ones. The esteros (drainage/sewage) canals are overgrown, filled with garbage and dirt and have shanties built in them thus no drainage. Shanties are built at the low water marks of the Pasig and Marakina rivers and thus flood whenever the rivers rise. It's a matter of too many people in too large of a flood prone city with a poor flood control infrastructure-the New Orleans of Asia. Though bad, the floods are not the worst to ever hit Luzon, the 1972 flood were beyond extreme-Clark AB on the DRY side of the coastal mountains received 89.6 inches of rain in July-10 more than their annual average rainfall and added another 40 inches in August. I missed those but was there for the 1967, 1974,1976 and 1978 floods in Central Luzon. As pointed out in an Op-Ed piece in the Philippine Inquirer site, what's happening with the hanging hagabat (SW Monsoon) is what the Central Luzon farmers call siyam-siyam (Tagalog for 9-9) or 9 days rains. Tradition has it that the 9 days rain marks the beginning of the rainy season (though its late this year) and time to plant the rice. Tradition also says that if it rains on a 10th day then there will be 9 more days of rain. I saw the 9 Days Rain many times and yes, I saw the additional days as well. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 curious case of Kai-Tak...: it duped almost all agencies in the region haha--no one was forecasting a landfall until about 12 hours ago when JMA and JTWC both shifted their forecasts significantly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 I've seen that happen before believe me. Irma was by far the worst case being forecast to recurve until 36 hours before we got slammed with 83 kt wind gusts. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 15, 2012 Author Share Posted August 15, 2012 Biggest model fail in a while. GFS, Euro, and UKMet were all steadfast on a track toward Southern Taiwan even through the 0z runs last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 looking good on microwave! no eye yet on IR nor VIS though... not sure if James is going west to intercept this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Typhoon Kai-Tak is now making landfall in the Leizhou Peninsula (Guangdong Province)... JMA upgraded it at the last minute so this makes it the 5th Typhoon to have made landfall along the Chinese Coast in 4 weeks!!!! (Vicente, Saola, Damrey, Haikui, Kai-Tak)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Typhoon Kai-Tak is now making landfall in the Leizhou Peninsula (Guangdong Province)... JMA upgraded it at the last minute so this makes it the 5th Typhoon to have made landfall along the Chinese Coast in 4 weeks!!!! (Vicente, Saola, Damrey, Haikui, Kai-Tak)... Pretty decent-looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Pretty decent-looking. anyway just like the Atlantic, the WPAC is getting in on some action as well... TS Tembin east of Luzon could make landfall in Taiwan later this week as a Cat 1... microwave already looking impressive for a 35kt-er; EDITED as the latest pass is even MORE impressive... meanwhile, 97W and 98W could merge and become a cylone in the next few days... most models showing a monster moving into Taiwan next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Seventeen W and 98W could end up making Dr. Fujiwhara proud. Tembin might be far enough west to avoid binary (or tertiary) interaction but if not things could get messy track wise and the models may not work too well. Looks a bit like July 1972 though in that case we 4 storms interacting with each other with STY Rita as the pivot. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Seventeen W and 98W could end up making Dr. Fujiwhara proud. Tembin might be far enough west to avoid binary (or tertiary) interaction but if not things could get messy track wise and the models may not work too well. Looks a bit like July 1972 though in that case we 4 storms interacting with each other with STY Rita as the pivot. Steve I'm looking forward to seeing some awesome long term fujiwarish loops in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Seventeen W and 98W could end up making Dr. Fujiwhara proud. Tembin might be far enough west to avoid binary (or tertiary) interaction but if not things could get messy track wise and the models may not work too well. Looks a bit like July 1972 though in that case we 4 storms interacting with each other with STY Rita as the pivot. Steve I'm looking forward to seeing some awesome long term fujiwarish loops in this thread i doubt they'd (Tembin and pre-Bolaven) get close to each other to get a loop going but that's just my opinion... either way, Tembin looks good right now and 16W could become a monster this week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 I'm pretty impressed with the amount of Wpac activity despite the suppressant phase of the MJO. Right now there is a global signal for suppressed convection across the vast majority of the West Pacific, and it looks like we might have two robust cyclones developing in spite of this atmospheric signal. In addition, the global models, namely the GFS, had a very difficult time forecasting the development of Tembin. Linked is a dprog/dt map that shows dynamic tropopause (shaded) and low-level relative vorticity (black contours) and you can see that it really wasn't until 48 hours in the future that the GFS was able to sniff out genesis to the east of the Philippines. This might be partially due to the very horrible forecast of Kai-Tak last week since the system left behind a strip of positive vorticity thanks to the southerly inflow of the storm interacting with the high terrain of the Philippines. The original forecast for Kai-Tak was the track north into the West Pacific and not get near the South China Sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 20, 2012 Author Share Posted August 20, 2012 Barotropic instability ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Looks like T#s have gone up as Tembin's eyewall contracted last night. Current CIMSS 15Z estimate has it at 941.7 mb and 117 kt. JMA has it at 945 mb and 90 kt (10-min avg), while JTWC has it at 110 kt (1-min avg) at 12Z. Last night's guidance became more aggressive, with at least another 24-36 h of strengthening likely. This appears to be at least in part due to Bolavin developing a bit further east, meaning less wrapping of dryer air along the west side of Bolavin and near Tembin, and also less local competition for vorticity. However, just comparing model analyses to satellite products, I think the models may be slightly under-analyzing the shear to the NW (near Taiwan), so if models bust low that's probably why. Pretty good agreement in terms of track. JMA has likely Taiwan landfall between 12Z/23rd and 00Z/24th, which agrees well with the 00Z ECMWF and the last 3 runs of the GFS (including the 12Z just coming in now.) Easterly flow to the south of a shortwave approaching Korea should slow down westward motion temporarily. JTWC a bit faster with landfall prior to 12Z/23rd, they sound less impressed by possible influence from the shortwave in their discussion. Lastly, there is very good agreement that Bolavin will become a very large typhoon. Mention of possible binary interaction between Bolavin and 98W looking less likely at this point, as the strong circulation of Bolavin is shearing the other invest apart. With the recent deep convective flareup, I wouldn't be surprised if Bolavin became a typhoon within the next 24 h or less. Tembin at 12Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 would love to see a 6-week loop of the WPAC... anyway, Tembin seems to have leveled off in the past 12 hours... ADT has actually gone down to 5.5; both JTWC and JMA still expect intensification though so we'll see.. James Reynolds is also heading to Kaohsiung... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Temblin looks to have fizzled a bit. As Patrick mentions, James Reynolds-- a good friend of mine-- is en route to chase it. I hope the weakening trend stops. He was hoping for a Cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Temblin looks to have fizzled a bit. As Patrick mentions, James Reynolds-- a good friend of mine-- is en route to chase it. I hope the weakening trend stops. He was hoping for a Cat 4. Actually, the weakening trend appears to have halted, and it´s looking better on IR again, with cold cloud tops surrounding the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Bolaven....hawt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 looks like some last-minute intensification going on with Tembin before landfall in a few hours.. James already set in Taitung I believe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 looks like some last-minute intensification going on with Tembin before landfall in a few hours.. James already set in Taitung I believe.. A few hours? Landfall is about 24 hr away. But, yeah, it is looking really good on recent imagery. Given how much time James has had to plan and wait for it, I'm hoping he's going to perfectly punch this one. The JTWC moves it in a straight line, toward the coast at a right angle, strengthening up to 120 kt at landfall. You don't get a cleaner, better setup than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.