am19psu Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 I hear ya, but this one is particularly egregious, in my opinion. Did the forecaster on duty not see the Taiwan radar? One look at the loop shows 1) landfall, 2) loop back offshore, and 3) system falling apart. Even I can figure it out. I just don't get it. And I'm arguing it isn't. They routinely miss the most obvious stuff. I've analyzed 140 kts Cat 5 monsters that JTWC has at 110. I've forecasted a track more than 20 degrees (2000 km/1200 nmi) off a Day 3 position. I just said two days ago their analysis was off by 20 kts. This is exactly what they do. They are bad at their jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 And I'm arguing it isn't. They routinely miss the most obvious stuff. I've analyzed 140 kts Cat 5 monsters that JTWC has at 110. I've forecasted a track more than 20 degrees (2000 km/1200 nmi) off a Day 3 position. I just said two days ago their analysis was off by 20 kts. This is exactly what they do. They are bad at their jobs. OK, I gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 And now JMA actually decreased Damrey's intensit to 50kt... Lol what a joke!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 here's your 50kt cyclone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 here's your 50kt cyclone!! Error bar is +/- 50 knots mainly plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 You think you have it bad with JTWC pity the poor military forecasters in WPAC who have to (or in my day had to) but JTWC hook line and sinker without change because they are the OFFICIAL Military forecasts-at least when I was in the Philippines JT was in Guam and not several thousand miles away. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 You think you have it bad with JTWC pity the poor military forecasters in WPAC who have to (or in my day had to) but JTWC hook line and sinker without change because they are the OFFICIAL Military forecasts-at least when I was in the Philippines JT was in Guam and not several thousand miles away. Steve doesn't it still happen today?? i also notice NWS Guam deferring to JTWC when it comes to TC Forecasts, even their track and intensity forecasts are identical... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Damrey is now about to make landfall in Jiangsu Province.. CMA has raised Red Alert for the first time this year i belive... thankfully, JTWC raised the intensity to 75kt at 06z although JMA only increased it to 60kt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Damrey is now about to make landfall in Jiangsu Province.. CMA has raised Red Alert for the first time this year i belive... thankfully, JTWC raised the intensity to 75kt at 06z although JMA only increased it to 60kt... Considering the real intensity is probably near 85 knots the folks in China are in for a rude awakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Josh... seems like they have the loop on the track after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Damrey is now about to make landfall in Jiangsu Province.. CMA has raised Red Alert for the first time this year i belive... thankfully, JTWC raised the intensity to 75kt at 06z although JMA only increased it to 60kt... IIRC, JMA and JTWC use different criteria (1 minute versus 10 minutes) for sustained winds. Unless I'm thinking of the Australian BoM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Visiteur Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 IIRC, JMA and JTWC use different criteria (1 minute versus 10 minutes) for sustained winds. Unless I'm thinking of the Australian BoM... You're correct, JMA (as well as BoM/TCWC) uses 10-minute sfc wind averaging, while JTWC maintains 1-minute sfc wind averaging. JTWC has a long record of poor reports (1989's TS Ken/Lola comes to mind), but IIRC, most of the military personnel are only with the JTWC for short periods of time (a few years or less), so I can imagine that inconsistencies might arise when an agency is constantly taking on new staff who may not be used to a tropical operational setting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Josh... seems like they have the loop on the track after all. Yep-- that is much better. I haven't looked, but I'm wondering now if the analysis for forecast was done right before or during the left hook and loop, so that there wasn't time to reflect it in the warning. If that loop happened after the warning, then I owe JTWC an apology. Either way, I'm glad the track now reflects what happened-- it makes me feel better! I feel they generally do an adequate job, and I don't think they're quite as bad as everyone here is saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 I feel they generally do an adequate job, and I don't think they're quite as bad as everyone here is saying... C'mon man. We always laud NHC and BoM because they do such a great job. It's ok to tell people they suck when they suck, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 C'mon man. We always laud NHC and BoM because they do such a great job. It's ok to tell people they suck when they suck, too. Harshyharsh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Good to see we've cycled back on the name list... But yeah this discussion is interesting.... what is everyone's opinion on PAGASA? I can't blame them for forecasting for their own area due to the absolutely terrible jobs JMA and JTWC do. I wouldn't be surprised to see CMA take over the RSMC responsibility from JMA in the next 10-20 years. At least China is making a massive putsch trying to improve their weather forecasts. BTW, 60 10-minute KT ~ 68.4 1-minute KT which rounds to 70 KT... so still quite a bit under, but very close to JTWC's estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 doesn't it still happen today?? i also notice NWS Guam deferring to JTWC when it comes to TC Forecasts, even their track and intensity forecasts are identical... Yes it does. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Good to see we've cycled back on the name list... But yeah this discussion is interesting.... what is everyone's opinion on PAGASA? I can't blame them for forecasting for their own area due to the absolutely terrible jobs JMA and JTWC do. I wouldn't be surprised to see CMA take over the RSMC responsibility from JMA in the next 10-20 years. At least China is making a massive putsch trying to improve their weather forecasts. BTW, 60 10-minute KT ~ 68.4 1-minute KT which rounds to 70 KT... so still quite a bit under, but very close to JTWC's estimates. well the point i made earlier is now moot as JMA has apparently upgraded Damrey briefly to a 70kt Typhoon during their 09z update.. they rarely upgrade (or downgrade) systems, let alone change intensity, during non-synoptic hours so it was really nice to see them do this this time... as for PAGASA, i'm telling you they're worse than JMA and JTWC... mainly because of the bureaucracy that still exists within the agency.. it is also gasping for budget and lack of equipment... they are also suffering from brain drain with most meteorologists moving to Australia (BOM) because of higher pay... i mean there was a report recently that revealed only two persons are assigned to one of their observation site with one technical person assigned to man the doppler radar there... thankfully, Japan and Australia have been helping the agency improve and upgrade most of their system through the addition of doppler radars, automated stations, and the like... the University of the Philippines has also begun to provide BS Meteorology courses (the first in the country i believe) to cope with the lack of personnel.. as for the RSMC, if JMA is to be replaced, i hope it would be Hong Kong's HKO or South Korea's KMA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 Haikui is going to be the hotness in about 5 days in the East China Sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Haikui is going to be the hotness in about 5 days in the East China Sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 No, this should get the nerd smiley: What we're seeing in the West Pac right now is a textbook case of monsoon trough breakdown through barotropic instability. It's been pretty rare recently, with the WPAC monsoon being less active over the last decade, but it will be cool to watch over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 No, this should get the nerd smiley: What we're seeing in the West Pac right now is a textbook case of monsoon trough breakdown through barotropic instability. It's been pretty rare recently, with the WPAC monsoon being less active over the last decade, but it will be cool to watch over the next week. lolz, what poindexter wrote that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 lolz, what poindexter wrote that? <------------------------------- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 <------------------------------- Omg, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 No, this should get the nerd smiley: What we're seeing in the West Pac right now is a textbook case of monsoon trough breakdown through barotropic instability. It's been pretty rare recently, with the WPAC monsoon being less active over the last decade, but it will be cool to watch over the next week. Total nerding out too on this... this is a pretty amazing case of barotropic instability at 25-30N. This is like a super-sized version of an ITCZ breakdown! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 I'm enjoying the Kelvin-Helmholtzyness of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Looks like Euro made a pretty big shift today: now tracking this towars Shanghai and less time to really intensify... GFS holds serve and still showing a strong typhoon towars either Kyushu or Shikoku... Both JTWC and JMA right now seem to be favoring the Euro more though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 TCCOR 1 at Kadena, but not all that terrible so far. RODN 050717Z AUTO 25021G31KT 3SM -RA BR SCT001 BKN008 BKN020 OVC026 27/27 A2913 RMK AO2 PK WND 26035/0701 VIS 1 1/2 RWY23 SLP864 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Storm crossing islands Lacks convection in north quad Headed for China Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 West Pac cyclone names Some are funny, others not This one - endless fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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