Superstorm93 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Weak eye with Damrey and its up to 45kts. Best 50 mph cyclone Ive seen in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Such vortices are common enough in the strong monsoon flow SW of a developing storm (especially one that develops in the monsoon trough) and are associated with the periods of really intense rain that occur during the surge. Sometimes they will ddevelop into a TD or TS and then merge with the larger system to the NE and on rare occasions might even phoon if they come out of the SCS into the Luzon Straits. Some really horrendous flooding can occur with these systems though at present only "normal" monsoonal flooding is occurring right now in Luzon and the northern Visayas. MCVs in the monsoon flow from the North American Monsoon have also been noted in AZ and can cause (for the desert) some really heavy rains (3-6 inches vs the 8-12 found in the RP) Steve What you have there is invest 97W. i have a question though... is it right to call it a "mesocyclone"?? apparently the PH weather bureau (PAGASA) is receiving flak for calling it as such and not being able to adequately give warnings as the "circulation" moved into Manila; so much so that the president himself wants the agency to explain what happened... as i posted 2 days ago, many areas reported sustained winds of around 50kph with gusts of up to 80kph enough to make it a Tropical Depression--as some people reasoned out--which could have justified the issuance of storm warnings in the area... but instead the bureau said it was a mesocyclone and a very rare occurrence and that they themselves were surprised that it happened... i just wanna know your thoughts about this?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Re: Saola... It's spun up a bit finally, with all agencies now showing a hurricane. There's some disagreement Re: the track, with the JTWC keeping it well offshore of Taiwan and Taiwan's agency suggesting a very close brush. My friend, James Reynolds, as decided to ride it out on the NE tip of Taiwan-- not one of the offshore islands of Okinawa. It was a tough call, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Re: Saola... It's spun up a bit finally, with all agencies now showing a hurricane. There's some disagreement Re: the track, with the JTWC keeping it well offshore of Taiwan and Taiwan's agency suggesting a very close brush. My friend, James Reynolds, as decided to ride it out on the NE tip of Taiwan-- not one of the offshore islands of Okinawa. It was a tough call, I think. A nailbiter for sure. It will strongly depend on the magnitude of the Fujiwhara interaction with Damrey, and also small wobbles in a thus far weak steering environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 both Damrey and Saola are beginning to affect the Japanese Islands. Damrey is moving near the Tanegashima Island just south of Kyushu, latest reports here indicate 10-min sustained winds of around 45mph with guts of up to 55mph... Saola, on the other hand, is affecting the Miyakojima and Ishigakijima Islands just east of Taiwan.. stations here are currently reporting sustained winds of around 55mph with gusts of up to 75mph... you can track both systems via JMA radar here: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 i have a question though... is it right to call it a "mesocyclone"?? apparently the PH weather bureau (PAGASA) is receiving flak for calling it as such and not being able to adequately give warnings as the "circulation" moved into Manila; so much so that the president himself wants the agency to explain what happened... as i posted 2 days ago, many areas reported sustained winds of around 50kph with gusts of up to 80kph enough to make it a Tropical Depression--as some people reasoned out--which could have justified the issuance of storm warnings in the area... but instead the bureau said it was a mesocyclone and a very rare occurrence and that they themselves were surprised that it happened... i just wanna know your thoughts about this?? Size wise it was a meso cyclone. I don't know about how rare they are since PAGASA has had radar coverage out of Subic for only a short time. I do know that quite intense squalls would be common at Cubi Pt. NAS and in the Manila area during monsoon surges with extremely heavy rains and strong winds gusting in the 45-50 kt range. But back in my days there the only weather radar was the FPS-77 at Clark and we had mountains between us and Subic as well as to the west. The PAGASA forecasters probably had a WTF? moment when they saw that circulation and didn't know what to expect from it. According to news reports there was significant storm damage along the bay front particularly near Tondo. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Wow, the latest JTWC forecast suggests a hurricane (Damrey) may pass very close to Shanghai. That should be interestin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2012 Author Share Posted August 1, 2012 Wow, the latest JTWC forecast suggests a hurricane (Damrey) may pass very close to Shanghai. That should be interestin'. Yeah, but wrong quadrant and a small, fast moving system makes me skeptical that Shanghai will even gust to gale force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 A little write-up about my friend, James Reynolds, who's chasing Saola: http://icyclone.com/now/2012/aug/01-august-2012.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2012 Author Share Posted August 1, 2012 Flooding is going to be the big story here, especially after the deadly floods in Beijing two weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Impressive radar shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Impressive radar shot If you click "Topography Not Displayed", you get an even better view-- like the one I used in my story about James' chase (see link above). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 If you click "Topography Not Displayed", you get an even better view-- like the one I used in my story about James' chase (see link above). Ah, very cool. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Latest images suggest a major wobble west -- this should make landfall on Taiwan within the next six hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Latest images suggest a major wobble west -- this should make landfall on Taiwan within the next six hours. Interesting-- yeah. I see that, too. Also, if I'm not mistaken, it looks like the eye is contracting: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 OK, not sure exactly what happened here. I looked at the 4-hr loop, and it looks like the eye sort of filled in as it neared the coast, and I believe it's very near the coast. Watch the loop and judge for yourselves: http://www.cwb.gov.t...observe/radar/# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2012 Author Share Posted August 1, 2012 OK, not sure exactly what happened here. I looked at the 4-hr loop, and it looks like the eye sort of filled in as it neared the coast, and I believe it's very near the coast. Watch the loop and judge for yourselves: http://www.cwb.gov.t...observe/radar/# Pretty standard along Taiwan, I think. The mountains wreak havoc with the circulation. Kinda like when systems weaken just offshore of Shredderola in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Pretty standard along Taiwan, I think. The mountains wreak havoc with the circulation. Kinda like when systems weaken just offshore of Shredderola in the Atlantic. Yep, I figured it had to do with inflow off the mountains. But sometimes a good 'cane can really broadside Shredderola. David 1979 hit the island at full force, making landfall near Santo Domingo with estimated winds of 150 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2012 Author Share Posted August 1, 2012 Yep, I figured it had to do with inflow of the mountains. But sometimes a good 'cane can really broadside Shredderola. David 1979 hit the island at full force, making landfall near Santo Domingo with estimated winds of 150 kt. Did David hit it perpendicularly? Incidence angle seems to matter a lot for these types of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Did David hit it perpendicularly? Incidence angle seems to matter a lot for these types of things. Not quite: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:David_1979_track.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Pretty standard along Taiwan, I think. The mountains wreak havoc with the circulation. Kinda like when systems weaken just offshore of Shredderola in the Atlantic. Bingo... this was a classic Taiwan lee cyclone that helped bring in the circulation further west than expected. In fact lee cyclogenesis has been ongoing for the last 2-3 days of the Taiwan coast which was helping to enlongate the circulation towards the west (see the very high convective tops that have been SW of Saola the last few days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Are there any good studies on how [mountainous] landmasses can perturb a TC's track when larger, more synoptic-scale* steering influences are weaker or comparable in magnitude? I've seen poorly modeled instances where TCs get 'sucked' or 'repelled' by landmasses for no apparent reason. Besides lee cyclogenesis, is there any physical explanation that accounts for this -- on both sides of the spectrum? *edited because original wording didn't make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Damrey's looking really good right now although JMA has been keeping it at 55kts for some reason... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Damrey's looking really good right now although JMA has been keeping it at 55kts for some reason... Both JMA and JWTC have done absolutely horrible with this system. This has probably been a hurricane for 2-3 days. At least JWTC upgraded it last night finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 Both JMA and JWTC have done absolutely horrible with this system. This has probably been a hurricane for 2-3 days. At least JWTC upgraded it last night finally. In other words, situation normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 The JTWC has also done a sloppy job with Saola-- I'm pretty disappointed. The cyclone came ashore, made a small loop, and has now bounced back offshore as a sloppy mess. The Taiwanese agency has documented this: http://www.cwb.gov.t...warning/B20.htm The radar confirms this thing ain't a 'cane anymore. But the JTWC has just glossed over all this-- smoothing the landfall event out of the track-- so that it looks like landfall hasn't yet occurred and it's still a strong hurricane: http://www.usno.navy...ings/wp1012.gif WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 The JTWC has also done a sloppy job with Saola-- I'm pretty disappointed. The cyclone came ashore, made a small loop, and has now bounced back offshore as a sloppy mess. The Taiwanese agency has documented this: http://www.cwb.gov.t...warning/B20.htm The radar confirms this thing ain't a 'cane anymore. But the JTWC has just glossed over all this-- smoothing the landfall event out of the track-- so that it looks like landfall hasn't yet occurred and it's still a strong hurricane: http://www.usno.navy...ings/wp1012.gif WTF? In other words, situation normal. You guys act like I haven't been complaining about this for four years, since I started forecasting out here. Both agencies are embarassing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 In other words, situation normal. You guys act like I haven't been complaining about this for four years, since I started forecasting out here. Both agencies are embarassing. As a college educated patriot, get a commission in the US Navy Reserve (like Stacy Stewart) and do two weeks a year duty at JTWC forecasting TCs. How Stacy Stewart wound up nearly losing his leg in combat in Iraq, nevermind, the war is winding down, and would serving your country in Honolulu be so bad? I enlisted before college, I was just a cog, a pawn, and after college, well, engineering pays too well. But you, Adam, the future and America beckons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 I applied at JTWC two years ago, but didn't make the cut (it was more of a DB position than a pure forecasting one, which is probably why I didn't even make the initial cut). I'd love to work in Honolulu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 In other words, situation normal. You guys act like I haven't been complaining about this for four years, since I started forecasting out here. Both agencies are embarassing. I hear ya, but this one is particularly egregious, in my opinion. Did the forecaster on duty not see the Taiwan radar? One look at the loop shows 1) landfall, 2) loop back offshore, and 3) system falling apart. Even I can figure it out. I just don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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