Derecho! Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 JTWC has this at 120 KTS. I actually wonder if that is a bit too high now. Eye doesn't look THAT awesome on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Ngong Ping, Cheung Chau and Cheung Chau Beach were 180, 141 and 125 kilometres per hour respectively. 180 km is 112 mph. Says max sustained. http://www.hko.gov.hk/contente.htm ETA Internet says Ngong Ping is on a mountain on Lantau island, which is SW of 'downtown' Hong Kong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Ngong Ping, Cheung Chau and Cheung Chau Beach were 180, 141 and 125 kilometres per hour respectively. 180 km is 112 mph. Says max sustained. http://www.hko.gov.hk/contente.htm Looks like Ngong Ping is at 1,500 feet on top of a mountain on an island SW of Hong Kong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Eye looks very symmetrical on IR. Probably close to peaking...if not peaked already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 The heavy rains in Manila are the result of the intensification of the monsoon flow south of the storm. This is considered an indirect effect of the typhoon. Such monsoon surges are common for storms that pass NW-NE of Luzon and can cause some very serious flooding. Another category of monsoon surge is related to the westerly wind bursts associated with active MJO waves-they tend to be longer in duration than typhoon related ones which (usually) last 1-3 days. Although not related to storms, the horizontal cyclonic shear on the poleward side of the monsoon flow maximum can generate low level vorticity and the development of a tropical cyclone. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Pressure rising, wind has shifted at Hong Kong and Macau, but Hong Kong did have an hourly 55 mph sustained at 1700Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 wow, certainly not expecting this... looks like Macau Radar is knocked out... reported winds in the area are not that strong though, despite being on the right front quadrant... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 btw, the Hong Kong Observatory issued Hurricane Signal No. 10 last night (HKT), the first No. 10 warning in 13 years... the last issuance was in 1999 when Typhoon York moved through the region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Looks like Ngong Ping is at 1,500 feet on top of a mountain on an island SW of Hong Kong. Which makes that wind reading essentially meaningless as an indicator of the cyclone's intensity at that time. That having been said, it was a nice system-- the core and banding looked awesome on radar. Hong Kong dodged a bullet. It's a bit hard to imagine the core of a system like that passing right over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 27, 2012 Author Share Posted July 27, 2012 Good luck forecasting the WPAC over the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Good luck forecasting the WPAC over the next 10 days It's Monsoon Gyre time! Looks for potentially multiple TCs splitting off from the main circulation as they get caught in the mid latitude flow. Certainly not an easy forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 First one out of the starting gate is TD10W. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 The JTWC shows an 80-kt cyclone hitting Taiwan. My Hong-Kong-based chaser friend, James Reynolds, is keeping a close eye on this one-- sees real potential in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 The JTWC shows an 80-kt cyclone hitting Taiwan. My Hong-Kong-based chaser friend, James Reynolds, is keeping a close eye on this one-- sees real potential in it. Yep, especially after he missed Vicente last week, too bad he wasn't in HK that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Taiwan has to watch out for this one. Once it can consolidate it's elongated LLC, it has some real "blow the hell up" potential. The -90C tops might be able to help with that. Nothing like a monsoon circulation to really stir things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Yep, especially after he missed Vicente last week, too bad he wasn't in HK that time He's beating himself up over it, but what did he miss, really? Some TS winds? It wasn't like HK had a direct hit or anything close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 I don't envy anyone with this forecast in the West Pacific right now. The GFS is projecting 3 maybe even 4 areas of vorticity associated with budding tropical cyclones embedded in a large gyre circulation. No doubt Saola is the dominant area of vorticity but the gyre center will probably be located further north and east as the axis between the three areas of vorticity. The track of Saola and these other developing tropical cyclones will probably be influenced by the larger scale circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 with the development of Tropical Storm Damrey (JMA) well south of Japan, we have now gone around the 140 names submitted to the WMO twice since 2000 so a total of 281 named storms in over 11 years, not bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Those Euro seasonal maps that suggested Luzon might be really, really wet just might turn out to be right. Maybe we'll see -80º cloud tops in our basin in August. Maybe. Still imagery could be misleading where the center is, BTW, it isn't all that close to Luzon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 looks like a small vortex (?) moving into Manila as seen on Subic Radar... nearby airports reporting cyclonic winds of around 15kts and pressure of 998mb... http://noah.dost.gov.ph/ EDIT Subic Radar Image... Manila airport just gusted to 37kt with pressure of 996... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 looks like a small vortex (?) moving into Manila as seen on Subic Radar... nearby airports reporting cyclonic winds of around 15kts and pressure of 998mb... http://noah.dost.gov.ph/ EDIT Subic Radar Image... Manila airport just gusted to 37kt with pressure of 996... What you have there is invest 97W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 The Saola path looks like it'll be a cliffhanger for Taiwan-- looks like about a 50/50 chance of it hitting or missing, if you look at the latest JTWC forecast. From a chase perspective, this looks like a tough call to me-- but I believe James Reynolds is already en route to Taiwan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Such vortices are common enough in the strong monsoon flow SW of a developing storm (especially one that develops in the monsoon trough) and are associated with the periods of really intense rain that occur during the surge. Sometimes they will ddevelop into a TD or TS and then merge with the larger system to the NE and on rare occasions might even phoon if they come out of the SCS into the Luzon Straits. Some really horrendous flooding can occur with these systems though at present only "normal" monsoonal flooding is occurring right now in Luzon and the northern Visayas. MCVs in the monsoon flow from the North American Monsoon have also been noted in AZ and can cause (for the desert) some really heavy rains (3-6 inches vs the 8-12 found in the RP) Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Saola might be close to typhoon status, but its certainly not got a well defined inner core yet. That might be more difficult than normal given the multiple vorticies that are rotating around the mean center (The one located over the Philippines and the one located just west of Taiwan). Damray will likely complicate matters further as well as another potential disturbance that is expected to form east of Saola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 For good laughs, check out the latest 12Z GFS -- after the Fujiwhara interaction between Damrey and Soala, the remnants of the latter dive SW and bear down on Vietnam in about a week. The next system to develop out of the monsoonal trough stalls over the Ryukyu Islands before turning towards Japan, and yet another system to the east develops and stalls over the open Pacific around 25N latitude for about five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 ^^ haha wouldn't that be something.. anyway, Taiwan conducted a surveillance flight on Saola at 12z today... here's the link for the data http://typhoon.as.ntu.edu.tw/DOTSTAR/en/flight.php?id=58 not sure how much info to take from here really..?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 I checked out the latest satellite shots. Wow-- that thing (Saola) has a big-azz center; reminds me of Ike when it was crossing the Gulf. It's going to have trouble really spinning up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 I checked out the latest satellite shots. Wow-- that thing (Saola) has a big-azz center; reminds me of Ike when it was crossing the Gulf. It's going to have trouble really spinning up. One of the problems might also be the cyclonic vorticity (black contours) that continues to spin off from Taiwan. Its really making it hard for Saola to tighten up when its battling the vorticity being generated through topographical features on the lee of the Taiwan terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 Damrey is at least 15 and possibly 25 kts stronger than analyzed by JTWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Damrey is at least 15 and possibly 25 kts stronger than analyzed by JTWC. lol... how is that system still 35 knots? SATCON has it more around 65-70 knots, although that might be a touch high. JTWC must be asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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