patrick05 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 eye on JMA radar... sustained winds of 20 to 30kt and gusts of up to 40kt starting to be recorded in Okinawa... ROAH (Naha) reporting pressure at 991mb and decreasing... Kadena AB is now at TCCOR 1 btw... btw, looks like the eyewall has improved after that EWRC... if it had more time, it would probably be stronger than what it is now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 990 mb, gusting to 25 knots, weather support squadron for Kadena predcits max sustained on the island 50 knots gusting to 75 knots as Guchol passes East of Okinawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Winding down. No longer a major per CIMSS ADT,and eye isn't clearly visible on satellite, although still obvious on radar.. Pressure startiung to rise at Kadena, now 990 mb w/ NNW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 I wrote up another analysis of Guchol on my blog. Max winds on Okinawa ~35 mph and ~40 mph on Amami, worst observed conditions in Kita-Daito where max winds have exceeded 50 mph. Looks like Japan will overall be spared fortunately. http://weather.schematical.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Nice halfachinacane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 It's amazing how quickly typhoons lose a tight core once they get as far north as the islands of S Japan. It's kinda like anything north of GA on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Talim is a somewhat interesting tropical cyclone, looks like it's gonna impact a broad part of coastal Asia including China, Taiwan, and Japan. Shear is inhibiting it for now, and it looks like SSTs and topography are gonna be a problem soon, so probably no typhoon. Full analysis and forecast on my blog: http://weather.schematical.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Guchol made landfall near Nanki-Shirahama in Kansai prefecture not so long ago. Widespread tropical storm force wind gusts are occurring near and to the east of the center (including metropolitan Tokyo), with hurricane force wind gusts occurring at Shizuoka (despite Guchol only being a tropical storm now). The worst is yet to come for Tokyo. Full analysis on my blog. http://weather.schematical.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 ^^^ izu islands reported sustained winds of around 62mph and gusts of up to 85mph last night... Shionomisaki, otoh, bottomed out at 966hPa as Guchol made landfall... even Tokyo wasn't spared from the winds and rains, here's a footage from a friend who lives there... but whatever, it was a normal day for them lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Tropical storm Doksuri has developed, it's gonna reach the Philippines in about a day and eventually southern China. Not expected to become a typhoon due to vertical wind shear, but it could become a high end tropical storm. I wrote up an analysis/forecast on my blog http://weather.schematical.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 hmmm, it looks like Debby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Doksuri has grown quite a bit in size overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Doksuri has grown quite a bit in size overnight Yup, Doksuri is putting up a very nice central dense overcast, but it is misplaced from the center due to 20-30 kt of wind shear. JTWC expects that Doksuri won't intensify much more, and I have to agree considering how misplaced the circulation seems to be from the center of the convection. Also only a day until landfall. I put a full analysis of Doksuri on http://weather.schematical.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Taiwan's DOTSTAR conducted one recon mission on Doksuri on Wednesday morning (0627 12UTC)... they found wind speeds of around 30 to 40kts near the center... here's the link: http://typhoon.as.ntu.edu.tw/DOTSTAR/en/flight.php?id=57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Doksuri is making landfall now to the north of Hainan island with winds of 40-50 mph. Missed Hong Kong well to the south due to a center relocation from the persistent shear. http://weather.schematical.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 we got TS Khanun now moving just north of Okinawa.. Daito Islands reported 40mph gusts earlier and a minimum pressure of 995hpa... Amami Island also beginning to report sustained 30mph and gusts of around 40mph as well... it's a weak storm and TCCOR remains at 4 for Okinawa... radar from JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 17, 2012 Author Share Posted July 17, 2012 Yup, this is a rain event for the southern islands and then Korea tomorrow. The bigger story will be a system that forms late this week/over the weekend in the Philippine Sea. That system has a much better chance to become a typhoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Yup, this is a rain event for the southern islands and then Korea tomorrow. The bigger story will be a system that forms late this week/over the weekend in the Philippine Sea. That system has a much better chance to become a typhoon. I like the Sunny Side Up optimism there. May be too close to land for really spectacular satellite imagery, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Tropical storm Khanun is making landfall in South Korea with winds of 50 mph. Wrote up a little analysis on my blog, though there's not much to talk about besides how weak this thing is http://weather.schematical.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Looks disorganized, but cold cloud tops for TD #9 Doesn't quite make it to being a typhoon per JTWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 TS Vicente just south of Hong Kong... making a run at Typhoon status?? VIS (NRLMRY) Radar (HKO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 wow, this has really gotten its act together in the past 6 hours, now up to typhoon by JTWC, JMA remains at STS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Not sure if directly related to Vicente. but rainfall around Metro-Manila was sufficient yesterday that Santo Tomas cancelled classes for Monday (Sunday afternoon US time) ETA: A clear eye was briefly visible on the visible loop, it probably is typhoon strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 I have a love-hate relationship with this basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 ^^ The WPAC is nice and all with the quality of storms, but the way the different agencies handle each system is a bit frustrating sometimes. Vincente appears to be a more dangerous system than previously thought. Could wander to Hong Kong... H. REMARKS...DT=4.5 BASED ON MG SURROUNDING RING WITH DG EYE EMBEDDED BY LG. ME=4.5 FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM. PT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT. ...SCHWARTZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Looks like it's heading more for Macao than Hong Kong. UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 23 JUL 2012 Time : 143000 UTC Lat : 21:19:04 N Lon : 113:54:57 E CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.5 / 943.6mb/102.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.5 6.0 6.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Ummm... UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 23 JUL 2012 Time : 153000 UTC Lat : 21:35:12 N Lon : 113:46:55 E CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.8 / 937.0mb/109.8kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.8 6.1 6.4 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km Center Temp : +0.3C Cloud Region Temp : -72.2C Scene Type : EYE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 You can monitor the landfall from the Macau Intl Airport METAR station with ID VMMC. Latest ob: VMMC 231630Z 06047G64KT 1500 0800S R16/0600N R34/1200VP2000N +SHRA FEW008 SCT015 BKN040 26/25 Q0981 NOSIG= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Sweet mother of R.I 20120723.1701.mtsat2.x.ir1km.09WVICENTE.120kts-933mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 JTWC has this at 120 KTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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