HurricaneJosh Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 here's the first aerial video of Cateel, just 10mi or so from landfall point... absolutely devastated... some of the damage looks comparable to the aerial videos made over the towns hit by STY Megi back in 2010... Cool video-- thanks for posting it. How do you know this is Cateel? Do the newscasters say that? I just want to make sure before I repost this on Facebook. I estimated, based on IR imagery, that the center crossed very close to Kinablangan-- in which case, yeah, Cateel would have gotten raked by the right eyewall. Pictures from Baganga posted on Facebook. (Not my own) http://www.facebook....22335198&type=1 I finally got a reply from a family member from the pictures I posted earlier. I have been informed that their home as well as the Co-op building shown were totally destroyed and they have essentially lost everything. They also told me that every structure in the city has sustained major damage or has been completely destroyed. According to him there have been at least 40 deaths in Baganga and well over 100 people remain missing including some members of his own family. I am hoping to head that way this weekend with a truckload of rice and other essentials although I have been told that the trip may be too risky at this time and I will evaluate the situation on Saturday. Cool pics-- thanks so much for posting them. As Jorge said, this location was probably in the S eyewall-- which would make sense if my estimated landfall point (Kinablangan) is correct. It's hard to tell, but in a couple of the shots, the trees seem to be bent toward the ocean-- which would support this theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 here's the first aerial video of Cateel, just 10mi or so from landfall point... absolutely devastated... some of the damage looks comparable to the aerial videos made over the towns hit by STY Megi back in 2010... It reminds me of Chetumal and Corozal after Janet 1955...in terms of the massive water and wind damage. Also comparable is Sandy Bay, Nicaragua, after Felix 2007. Both were intense Cat-5s making landfall very close to those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 here's the first aerial video of Cateel, just 10mi or so from landfall point... absolutely devastated... some of the damage looks comparable to the aerial videos made over the towns hit by STY Megi back in 2010... Looks like the aftermath of Hurricane Iniki on Kauai. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 She was a beaut for sure... -95C.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Dude where have u been? I miss your insight on the pattern. Yeah, odd that it took a WPAC typhoon to bring me back, eh? I'll probably stop by a every now and then. Been busier over the last year or so at work and home so just haven't found as much free time to jump onto the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Cool video-- thanks for posting it. How do you know this is Cateel? Do the newscasters say that? I just want to make sure before I repost this on Facebook. I estimated, based on IR imagery, that the center crossed very close to Kinablangan-- in which case, yeah, Cateel would have gotten raked by the right eyewall. Yes they mentioned it in the report... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Yes they mentioned it in the report... Cool. You're Filipino and speak Filipino, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Pictures from Baganga posted on Facebook. (Not my own) http://www.facebook....22335198&type=1 I finally got a reply from a family member from the pictures I posted earlier. I have been informed that their home as well as the Co-op building shown were totally destroyed and they have essentially lost everything. They also told me that every structure in the city has sustained major damage or has been completely destroyed. According to him there have been at least 40 deaths in Baganga and well over 100 people remain missing including some members of his own family. I am hoping to head that way this weekend with a truckload of rice and other essentials although I have been told that the trip may be too risky at this time and I will evaluate the situation on Saturday. i'm sorry to hear that... thankfully they're fine... but that's the kind of stories i keep hearing on the news today... towns completely devastated, with many officials liking it to the atomic bomb in japan... some of these towns are also still inaccessible and are running out of supplies.. in some towns, they had to improvise and use banana leaves to cover the corpses because they ran out of body bags... Cool. You're Filipino and speak Filipino, right? yes, although i haven't been to Mindanao yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 yes, although i haven't been to Mindanao yet... Cool. You might come in handy to me later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Finally found some video from a reporter on the ground in Cateel. Report is in Filipino and not Taglish so didnt understand it at all, but the pictures pretty much tell the story. http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/video/nation/regions/12/06/12/help-reaches-isolated-towns-davao-oriental Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Without food and clean water, they are very concerned about diseases. It's also going to be a long time restoring power. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Lol at JTWC being so reluctant to downgrade Bopha for the last couple of days when it looked like crap, but now that they have, it looks the best it has since reemerging over the SCS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Without food and clean water, they are very concerned about diseases. It's also going to be a long time restoring power. Steve I have been in contact with people in the Compostela Valley as well as the hardest hit area of Baganga and the news is dire to say the least. I know the people here will eventually recover, but at the moment it seems impossible. Trying to coordinate getting relief to my friends in Baganga now and it is very frustrating to say the least. An interesting thing to note, the cut off between areas that got by relatively unscathed such as here in Davao City and those which were devistated is quite remarkable. Once you get to Tagum City (Only 35 miles North of here) and points North the damage is quite extensive and could be described as catastrophic. The road to recovery will be a long and difficult one for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Bopha was like Kate a compact intense storm and based upon the landfalling satellite images it had changed little in intensity from its peak of 140kt. I think it was compared in size to Charlie in FL. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 meanwhile, Bopha looking really good over the SCS with an eye trying to appear on VIS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Impressive, pretty warm waters that Bopha's over right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Back to a typhoon (although I'm guessing it might be closer to 100 kts sustained than 80 at this point). 1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 047UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 26W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 115.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Back to a typhoon (although I'm guessing it might be closer to 100 kts sustained than 80 at this point). Totally agreed. That's easily 100 kt right there. I don't know why the JTWC is being so bearish about this. It's obviously a major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 Totally agreed. That's easily 100 kt right there. I don't know why the JTWC is being so bearish about this. It's obviously a major. They've been off on this the whole time, even well before landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Philippines typhoons always seem to reach a secondary peak in the SCS... surprised Bopha did given the strength of the NE Monsoon this time of year. I suppose being in the right-entrance region of the jet stream has helped... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I know this is probably going to get sheared/upwelled/NE-monsooned pretty soon, but man it looks like a Cat 4 right now. (edit: actually some erosion of the NW Quad of the CDO is already underway, it looked better a couple hours ago) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Microwave view. Annular microcane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Secondary peaks in the SCS are indeed common for storms crossing the Philippines but not usually this time of year or that far north in the SCS. Would appear that were are between surges in the NE Monsoon and the turn NE is suggestive of a trough moving out of southern China which will be followed by a strong NE surge which will do the storm in unless it can be picked up and race off NE and become ET. SSTs west of Luzon are always warm in December as the NE Monsoon hasn't fully established itself over the Philippines and eastern SCS by then. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Bopha going to do the loop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Definitely not lookin' like a cat 3 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Never underestimate the power of the NE Monsoon. As far as I know, TY Phyllis in December 1963 is the only TY to recurve and pass close to NW Luzon in the SCS as a December storm. TY Irma in 1974 after blasting Clark AB regained intensity in early December in the SCS and threatened Hong Kong. It was at the time the strongest Tropical system on record in the northern SCS. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Definitely not lookin' like a cat 3 at this point. Yeah, it's dying fast. By the way, notice that you said "Cat 3"? Even wx nerds like you and me find a five-point scale useful, convenient shorthand for discussing cyclones, making quick comparisons, and so on. You didn't say "Definitely not lookin' 115 mph at this point" because that would have been an artificially precise statement-- but saying it doesn't belong to one of five broad categories felt right. Not to overanalyze this, but I think this is an illustration of how and why the SS scale is useful. It's ingrained and we find it a convenient way to understand storms and frame discussions. Sorry to go OT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Final warning on Bopha. Poof! And with that, the 2012 chinacane season is probably done with. Time for S-Hemisphere yummies!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Well I did say that the northern SCS was not friendly towards typhoons in December. BTW we DO have Claudia (TC 03S) at 15.0S 74.4E with 105kt winds. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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