patrick05 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 TS Mawar east of Luzon... forecast to be a typhoon in a day or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 2, 2012 Author Share Posted June 2, 2012 Mawar became a typhoon more quickly than expected. It's now 65 kts and sitting 650 mi SSW of Okinawa. My forecast is west of JTWC by about 100 mi, which puts Okinawa at threat for a landfalling Cat 3 or 4, depending on how much RI goes on over the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 wow, aggressive... anyway, eye hasn't fully cleared yet though and looks like some dry air entrainment?? PS: is there a way to edit the subtitles (not that chinacanes aren't good)...?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 anyway... IR presentation seems to be improving a bit.. image from CIMSS (NRLMRY doesn't seem to be working) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 wow Cat 3 now according to JTWC (100kt)... JMA keeps it at 75kts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 It's weakening again. Judging by the ADT and SATCON numbers, I'd be willing to bet it never got to 100 kts, even though SAB did give it T5.5 briefly at 2032z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 Really falling apart now. Will be lucky to be T4.5 at the next advisory. I'd bet on T4.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 ugh, not good... interesting to see what the wind reports will be from Daito... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 interesting little devil Guchol is... it's quite small though, 250km in diameter... not expected to hit Philippines although it could track towards the Southern Japanese Islands by this weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 It does look pretty nice (for a chinacane). A friend of mine is toying with the idea of chasing it in the Japanese islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 interesting little devil Guchol is... it's quite small though, 250km in diameter... not expected to hit Philippines although it could track towards the Southern Japanese Islands by this weekend.. I'm kinda shocked its still only 50 knots according to JWTC. Do they even bother to look at microwave? I'm guessing this system is somewhere closer to 80 knots than 50 considering satellite often underestimates smaller systems such as this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Beautiful CDO with an eye underneath. Some good ole' rapid intensification is in order... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 I'm kinda shocked its still only 50 knots according to JWTC. Do they even bother to look at microwave? I'm guessing this system is somewhere closer to 80 knots than 50 considering satellite often underestimates smaller systems such as this. Even their 00z warning only puts it at 55kts... Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 Meh, looking at it this morning, it's somewhere between 60-70 kts. The ring didn't last because of the easterly/northeasterly shear. This is not an environment conducive for rapid intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 Meh, looking at it this morning, it's somewhere between 60-70 kts. The ring didn't last because of the easterly/northeasterly shear. This is not an environment conducive for rapid intensification. Latest AMSU image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 lolz Even more lolz: Always forward leaning JTWC just upgraded it to a typhoon. It was clearly a typhoon around 3-6z last night and has weakened some today. I'd argue it is now around 55-60 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 JTWC has Guchol up to 90 kts. I'd guess somewhere between 65-75, based on SATCON and ADT. Also, the Euro completely capitulated tonight. At least it clears up the forecast mess, but I was backing the wrong horse on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Always a fan of -80º cloud tops. Hoping for more WestPac action, as the antipasto before the "real" Atlantic season begins in August. But maybe close enough to Okinawa for some interest. I follow the Kadena AFB Face Book for the official notices on systems near there. They are at TCCOR 4 currently. Although that is the default typhoon readiness state during the season. KadenaAirBase 6 hours ago Good afternoon Team Kadena! Apologies for the confusion earlier this morning about Guchol missing Okinawa. The new track has the eye passing just 15 miles to the west of Okinawa at 7 a.m. Tuesday morning. The folks at the 18th Wing Weather Flight say that with the eye passing even closer than previously forecast, we could see max speeds gusting to 120 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 lol JMA holding at 60kts while JTWC is at 100kts.. such discrepancy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 woo, eye finally starting to clear out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 When I went to bed last night around midnight EDT, the ADT number was T4.8. It's now T6.7. I love the West Pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Stunning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Kadena AFB on Okinawa now at TCCOR 3 Spent a couple of hours there in 1985. Attached image taken same time as Steve's NRL shot, but with more fearsome color scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 WPAC FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 EWRC?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 17 JUN 2012 Time : 040000 UTC Lat : 18:05:16 N Lon : 127:17:05 E CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.5 / 927.6mb/127.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 6.2 6.2 6.2 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km Center Temp : -20.2C Cloud Region Temp : -73.6C Scene Type : EYE Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 KADENA AFB at TCCOR 2. 2. IF SUPER TYPHOON GUCHOL CONTINUES TO MOVE AS FORECAST, SUSTAINED DAMAGING WINDS OF 50 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM 18/1500L – 19/0300L. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON OKINAWA ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED AT 75 KNOTS WITH 105 KNOT GUSTS FROM 18/2100L-19/0000L. 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 I wrote up an analysis of what to expect from Guchol on my blog, looks like a decent hit for the southern prefectures: http://weather.schematical.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 meh, seems to be weakening faster than progged.. surprised JTWC kept it at 125kts... to my untrained eye, i doubt this is even a cat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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