Ed Lizard Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 i-Cyclone (Josh) reporting landfall near Kinablañgan, which would put it very near Boston, San Rafael and San Alfonso in Davao Oriental. ETA Just looked at a map of Cateel Bay, which would have been in the Northern eyewall, and the suggested bathymetry of the bay looks rather shallow. Surge could be major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It appears that Baganga took a direct hit. For an idea of what typical construction looks like in that area I have attached a couple of pictures taken a few weeks ago with some friends I have there. (Notice the construction of the roof from inside the house in the second picture.) Meanwhile here in Davao it is raining moderately with occasional gusts to maybe 30 or 40mph. Nothing to bad as of yet, however,I am mainly concerned about heavy rains upstream that may cause flooding here later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 i-Cyclone (Josh) reporting landfall near Kinablañgan, which would put it very near Boston, San Rafael and San Alfonso in Davao Oriental. ETA Just looked at a map of Cateel Bay, which would have been in the Northern eyewall, and the suggested bathymetry of the bay looks rather shallow. Surge could be major. Yep. I think San Antonio probably had a massive surge, given the its location in relation to the center, and on the S coast of Cateel Bay. It appears that Baganga took a direct hit. For an idea of what typical construction looks like in that area I have attached a couple of pictures taken a few weeks ago with some friends I have there. (Notice the construction of the roof from inside the house in the second picture.) Meanwhile here in Davao it is raining moderately with occasional gusts to maybe 30 or 40mph. Nothing to bad as of yet, however,I am mainly concerned about heavy rains upstream that may cause flooding here later on. Yep-- Baganga was in the core for sure. I'm sure it was a scary night there. What brought you to that town, by the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Actually... Thinking about this some more, the surge might not have been too bad because 1) this isn't a large cyclone and 2) it's moving fast. The surges might not be so epic, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 In 1970, Kate did indeed become a very much larger storm after it gained latitude. Bopha has a different situation at hand though. The SCS is none too friendly towards Tropical Cyclones north of about 12 N in December due to the presence of the NE Monsoon with its cool air and strong vertical shear. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Yep-- Baganga was in the core for sure. I'm sure it was a scary night there. What brought you to that town, by the way? I first went there last year as part of a project with the Department of Trade and Industry. This is when I initially met the family in the picture and have since traveled there many times. DTI along with several other business owners across Mindanao have been working together to provide jobs and livelihood programs for some of the poorest people in this region and by being a part of this program it has allowed me to travel and meet people throughout Mindanao. I may be heading that way in a few days depending on the situation and if I will be asked to provide any assistance. I will try to make contact with some people there once things wind down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I first went there last year as part of a project with the Department of Trade and Industry. This is when I initially met the family in the picture and have since traveled there many times. DTI along with several other business owners across Mindanao have been working together to provide jobs and livelihood programs for some of the poorest people in this region and by being a part of this program it has allowed me to travel and meet people throughout Mindanao. I may be heading that way in a few days depending on the situation and if I will be asked to provide any assistance. I will try to make contact with some people there once things wind down a bit. Very cool. Well, keep us abreast, and please bring a camera so you can show us all what happened at Ground Zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 EDIT: Lumbia Airport (near Cagayan de Oro; elev. 600ft) recorded 66kt (122kph) sustained in the last hour... trying to look for videos from the eastern coast but not getting any... reports from local tv stations say widespread tree damage and storm surge damage... one fatality so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 EDIT: Lumbia Airport (near Cagayan de Oro; elev. 600ft) recorded 66kt (122kph) sustained in the last hour... trying to look for videos from the eastern coast but not getting any... reports from local tv stations say widespread tree damage and storm surge damage... one fatality so far... That can't be a good sign, I'm guessing that roads in and out of the area are probably blocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Cateel (near Cateel bay which was mentioned in the previous page) is reporting widespread storm surge damage and flood waters still up to waist deep... nearby towns also reporting total black out and are isolated from each other.. furthermore, unconfirmed reports of 11 dead along the eastern regions due to an evacuation shelter being destroyed.. another report in a valley says 12 dead due to landslides... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Cateel (near Cateel bay which was mentioned in the previous page) is reporting widespread storm surge damage and flood waters still up to waist deep... nearby towns also reporting total black out and are isolated from each other.. furthermore, unconfirmed reports of 11 dead along the eastern regions due to an evacuation shelter being destroyed.. another report in a valley says 12 dead due to landslides... The numbers of casualties from that area will without doubt rise significantly. For those who may not know, more than half the homes in that part of the island are wooden structures with nothing more than a tin roof especially the ones right along the coastline. The picture I posted earlier is in a subdivision with houses made with concrete walls, but as you can see the roof is poorly constructed. This would be one of the more well constructed homes with only the well to do residents being able to afford better quality. Can't imagine what that area looks like today. Have tried to make contact with friends in Baganga with no luck so far. Will update if or when I get some first hand reports from that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Cateel (near Cateel bay which was mentioned in the previous page) is reporting widespread storm surge damage and flood waters still up to waist deep... nearby towns also reporting total black out and are isolated from each other.. furthermore, unconfirmed reports of 11 dead along the eastern regions due to an evacuation shelter being destroyed.. another report in a valley says 12 dead due to landslides... If those are actually the real numbers, you should have a happy face. Like Tullioz said, the toll will probably rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Yeah, you don't get a Cat 5 making landfall into an area like that with such poor construction tendencies and not have serious problems, not just with surge and landslides, but flying debris/wind damage as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The latest JTWC package has the cyclone back offshore in the Bohol Sea with winds of 95 kt-- however, it really doesn't look anywhere near that good on the IR. Either way, imagery suggests the center is nearing City of Dumaguete. They should be getting hammered pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Dumaguete reported 40kt north-easterly winds an hour and a half ago... meanwhile, here's the latest radar from Cebu showing Bopha southwest of the image... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Looking at some pics on Jeff Master's blog on WU, checked those locations and they are generally 40 miles to the South of where the storm made landfall. (i.e. Mati City, Tarragona). Nightfall there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Report of 43 dead in New Bataan due to flash floods. I fear the toll will continue to climb as reports come out from the eastern part of Mindanao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 Report of 43 dead in New Bataan due to flash floods. I fear the toll will continue to climb as reports come out from the eastern part of Mindanao. It sucks, but I'll be shocked if the final number is <1000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It sucks, but I'll be shocked if the final number is <1000. Yeah I have yet to hear anything from those areas directly hit. I imagine it will be an ugly scene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Somewhere in my archives I have a QS and accompanying satellite image of the pre-Agni counterclockwise circulation centered a wee bit SOUTH of the EQ. Great stuff. Just found this... http://www.academia....ical_Mechanisms 2. Synoptic History of Agni Two deep convective mesoscale disturbances were observed in the Equatorial Indian ocean on 19 November 2004 and at 18UTC 26 November 2004. The first disturbance was located at about 800 km southeast of Colombo, Sri Lanka and the second at about 160 Km north of equator. The second disturbance originated from the remnants of the first disturbance as low level circulation, with the maximum wind speed of around 11 m s1 (20 Knots). From 00 UTC 27 November 2004 to 03 UTC 28 November 2004 the second disturbance organized itself to form Tropical Cyclone Agni. The deep convection associated with it organized with maximum surface wind speed of around 15 m s1 (30 knots) surrounding the center. During the organization, it was observed that the centers of the intensification moved about half degree south of the equator without losing its counter clockwise rotation. This erratic behavior questioned the necessary condition of required large Coriolis parameter either side of equator for the genesis of tropical cyclone. After surviving its excursion south of equator, at 06 UTC 28 November 2004 this tropical disturbance strengthened to tropical storm and was located around 75 Km north of equator. Then, cyclone Agni followed northwestward track for most of its life span and intensified as tropical cyclone on 12 UTC 29 November, 2004. After 06 UTC 30 November 2004 the cyclone passed through the region of heavy wind shear. This lead to its dissipation from tropical cyclone to tropical storm on 18 UTC 30 November 2004. Further its movement towards Somalia coast made it to dissipate on 18 UTC 3 December 2004. Here's an animation of Agni's circulation from 24-30 NOV 2004 that I stitched together from two QS sectors that straddled the equator. There are some gaps in the wind swaths, but watch as the QS defined center of circulation passes over and just south of the southern Maldives, briefly dipping just south of the Equator. Agni formed as the northern part of a pair of "TC Twins". Agni's SHEM counterpart, Intense Cyclone Bento, is clearly visible in the animation. IIRC there was some discussion about these twins being associated with either an equatorial WWB or a NHEM northerly wind surge that interacted with the monsoon trough in that area. Cool stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Yeah I have yet to hear anything from those areas directly hit. I imagine it will be an ugly scene. Dude where have u been? I miss your insight on the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Sp far, we are concentrating on the main islands that were hit. But there are over 7000 islands in the Philippine Archepeligo and many of the smaller remote ones are inhabited but difficult to get to and usually have no infrastructure for dealing with storms-this is where many casualties will be. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Great photo of Bopha from NASA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Death toll from Bopha closing in on 300: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/12/05/uk-philippines-typhoon-idUKBRE8B405K20121205 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Finally getting limited information in the vicinity of the landfall point. http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2012/12/05/bophapablo-aftermath-reports-of-devastation-in-cateel-davao-oriental/ About what anyone on this forum would have expected at the landfall location. From what I understand access to many places along the coast are still mostly blocked due to landslides, bridge washouts, debris, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 here's the first aerial video of Cateel, just 10mi or so from landfall point... absolutely devastated... some of the damage looks comparable to the aerial videos made over the towns hit by STY Megi back in 2010... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Pictures from Baganga posted on Facebook. (Not my own) http://www.facebook....22335198&type=1 I finally got a reply from a family member from the pictures I posted earlier. I have been informed that their home as well as the Co-op building shown were totally destroyed and they have essentially lost everything. They also told me that every structure in the city has sustained major damage or has been completely destroyed. According to him there have been at least 40 deaths in Baganga and well over 100 people remain missing including some members of his own family. I am hoping to head that way this weekend with a truckload of rice and other essentials although I have been told that the trip may be too risky at this time and I will evaluate the situation on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Damage is impressive...and it looks like it was mostly wind damage, as Baganga being in the S eyewall wouldn't have suffered much from storm surge. Only trees that weren't completely denuded or downed were palms, and I estimate that at least 50-60% of the palm trees were downed or severely trashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Damage is impressive...and it looks like it was mostly wind damage, as Baganga being in the S eyewall wouldn't have suffered much from storm surge. Only trees that weren't completely denuded or downed were palms, and I estimate that at least 50-60% of the palm trees were downed or severely trashed. Since you mentioned the trees, just to put things into perspective on how this storm will affect many in the community for years to come, my friend mentioned earlier has a rubber tree plantation which he said is a total loss. There are approximately 550 trees per hectare and he along with 147 farmers in his community had a total of 50 hectares of rubber trees between them. That is a total of 27,500 trees lost and now 148 farmers and their families have no source of income. The worst part is that it takes 6 to 7 years for a rubber tree to grow from a sapling to a producing tree which raises the question of what will happen to these families in the mean time? I am sure that this situation is repeated countless times across Northern Mindanao and especially in the Compostela Valley which is a highly agricultural region, mainly bananas I think in that area. This is a disaster that will take many years to fully recover from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Bad assumption by whoever wrote the Wiki on New Bataan. That being inland meant being protected, especially in a town in a valley. 113 people died in Virginia from freshwater flooding after Hurricane Camille hit Mississippi. New Bataan is a first class municipality at the Compostela Valley province of the Philippines. The municipality was founded on June 18, 1968 through Republic Act No. 4756.[2] It has a total land area of 688.6 km2 (55,315 has.) and situated north and west of Davao Oriental province; south of Municipality of Compostela and west of Municipality of Maragusan. New Bataan is surrounded with mountain ranges that keeps the place away from coming typhoons. The municipality is composed of more than 50% of forest that has been the sources of living for some people live in there. NEW BATAAN, Philippines: The death toll from a typhoon that ravaged the Philippines jumped to 274 Wednesday with hundreds more missing, as rescuers battled to reach areas cut off by floods and mudslides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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