am19psu Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 Yeah, my 24 hour intensity forecast went totally busto because I was expecting a huge, blown out eye when I came in this morning. Instead, it's close to Cat 5 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 DT back to 7.0 while ADT (7.3) is now at highest it has ever been... will we see an upgrade to Cat 5?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 For posterity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 it's now a 140-kt Cat 5!!! (JTWC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Looks like it will hit somewhere between Cateel Bay and Bislig Bay (Surigao del Sur). Don't know the area at all, but looks that there's no big population center, though there might be a vast number of small villages scattered over the area. Lingig looks quite exposed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 ADT now 7.5 with a raw #T of 7.6 Hopefully the fairly rapid forward motion will reduce the rainfall a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Looks like it will hit somewhere between Cateel Bay and Bislig Bay (Surigao del Sur). Don't know the area at all, but looks that there's no big population center, though there might be a vast number of small villages scattered over the area. Lingig looks quite exposed. That looks to be a pretty good guess and with the last few frames of the satellite loop I would lean towards Cateel Bay as the motion has resumed a more Westerly track. As for people in that region, the towns and villages; while small, are densely populated. Even areas that look remote have people and compounds where many people live. I have traveled this area extensively and there are many small houses and huts that line the roadways between each village. It is not uncommon for several generations of a family to live together in a single house. Unfortunately a lot of these people outside of the more populated villages probably have no idea what is coming their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Here is a live feed discussing Pablo: http://www.youtube.com/user/WestPacWx/featured?feature=plcp&v=VAtajdZkvh0 (Time Sensitive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 As said above if there is one good thing here its, that rainfall, a frequent killer from Typhoons in this region, will be mitigated by fast motion somewhat.That point aside, this an an area generally unaccustomed to Typhoons in general, about to take the full brunt one of the strongest storms to hit the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Looking at the satellite now, for some reason, reminds me of Andrew through the Bahamas. The Andrew analogy gets thrown around way too often on this site, but this time it actually fits fairly well in terms of size, intensity, structure and heading. Ominous ASCAT pass. Rain contamination aside, it's obvious that we're looking at a small but very intense core. Winds ~40 kt at 100 km radius increasing to ~155 kt at 16 km radius per satellite estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Here is a live feed discussing Pablo: http://www.youtube.c...p&v=VAtajdZkvh0 (Time Sensitive) thanks for stopping by! hope you found it useful... meanwhile, there is a radar station (Hinatuan) just south of where the projected landfall would be.. unfortunately the coverage is piss poor.. the next radar is in Cebu which is pretty far out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 thanks for stopping by! hope you found it useful... meanwhile, there is a radar station (Hinatuan) just south of where the projected landfall would be.. unfortunately the coverage is piss poor.. the next radar is in Cebu which is pretty far out... Yes, the live link has been very useful and informative. As for the radar site out of Hinatuan it seems to be currently out of service which is no surprise. Currently everything is dead calm here in Davao City. Not even the slightest breeze at the moment and I am located 200 yards from the Davao Gulf. That being said, I really feel for the people to the North and hoping for the best for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Yes, the live link has been very useful and informative. As for the radar site out of Hinatuan it seems to be currently out of service which is no surprise. Currently everything is dead calm here in Davao City. Not even the slightest breeze at the moment and I am located 200 yards from the Davao Gulf. That being said, I really feel for the people to the North and hoping for the best for them. our friends at ClimateX PH were actually kind enough to put up the raw feed from Hinatuan Station... it's been down for two months now and the data is still pretty poor because of obstructions, i'm guessing... here's the link:just go to "Doppler Radar" and click the southernmost radar... http://climatex.ph/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 our friends at ClimateX PH were actually kind enough to put up the raw feed from Hinatuan Station... it's been down for two months now and the data is still pretty poor because of obstructions, i'm guessing... here's the link:just go to "Doppler Radar" and click the southernmost radar... http://climatex.ph/ Thanks, That is the link I have used in the past and I still can not get the Hinatuan site to come up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Thanks, That is the link I have used in the past and I still can not get the Hinatuan site to come up. hmm, that's weird... here's the image if you're wondering... i don't know if you notice, but at the very last frame, you might see the hint of the storm's eye approaching from the east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 hmm, that's weird... here's the image if you're wondering... i don't know if you notice, but at the very last frame, you might see the hint of the storm's eye approaching from the east... Working now. Thanks, had to open the site with a different browser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Weather pron... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 downed trees and heavy rains now being reported in Cateel on the eastern coast (just google it to know the exact location)... they are about 120km or so away from the storm center... meanwhile, here's the latest shot of the radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Red-meat landfall in the making: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Still moving just north of due west, or around 275. It will hit a little farther south than my previous estimate, roughly around the Baganga to Cateel municipalities. Local surge in the Cateel bay will probably be over 15' ... very bad for those fishing villages out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Any obs from around there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Any obs from around there? none right now... the weather station just west of the eye stopped reporting an hour ago... last pressure reported was 991mb (no wind report)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 As close as the eye was 40 minutes ago on satellite, it is probably about to make landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Wow incredibly lucky we have radar coverage of this storm as it makes landfall. The storm is still incredibly tiny with the a 10 mile radius eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Stolen from 28storms.com FaceBook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Quite the landfall right there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Wicked tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Right at landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Right at landfall Awesome. What a treat to have these! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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