HurricaneJosh Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 The 1230Z center position, as per IR imagery (~6.5N 134.2E). Palau is safe, with perhaps the S-most island in the chain (Angaur Island) falling within the 64-kt radius. The Philippines will get hammered: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 The 1230Z center position, as per IR imagery (~6.5N 134.2E). Palau is safe, with perhaps the S-most island in the chain (Angaur Island) falling within the 64-kt radius. The Philippines will get hammered: Looks like the track the GFS has had for the past several runs may end up being correct. With the prolonged Western movement of recent hours I would expect the landfall to be somewhat further South than what is currently projected. Northern Mindanao looks to get hit hard for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Looks like the track the GFS has had for the past several runs may end up being correct. With the prolonged Western movement of recent hours I would expect the landfall to be somewhat further South than what is currently projected. Northern Mindanao looks to get hit hard for sure. I assume you're in NC and have family/friends in the RP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 I assume you're in NC and have family/friends in the RP? No, currently in Davao. I have a business here and this is where I spend most of my time. I was here last December for Washsi which had little effect here in the Davao region outside of some brief squalls from time to time, but was able to travel to Iligan shortly thereafter and was amazed at the devastation from such a weak system. Did a lot of relief work in that area well into the first of the year. If the GFS is correct; and looking at the latest movement it very well may be, this storm will unfortunately follow a very similar track across Mindanao. Can't imagine the damage a storm of this strength could bring to the island and I am not looking forward to finding out. I am afraid this will be very bad. I travel all over this region for business and have many contacts and friends that are going to be affected by this storm. Surprisingly until I made a post on Facebook today many had no idea a storm was approaching. It was only this morning that the government started alerting the public of the impending storm which is no real surprise either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Below is the 11pm advisory from Pagasa. To me, this just does not get the message across to the general public the severity of this approaching typhoon. While this only covers the next 36 hours, it does not really stress the urgency to start making preparations in the regions that are going to be affected. If a storm of this magnitude were approaching the US coastline the wording would be much different I believe. WEATHER BULLETIN #2 TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: TYPHOON “#Pabloph” (BOPHA) ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 02 DECEMBER 2012 (Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow) TYPHOON “PABLO” HAS ACCELERATED AND ENTERED THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPOSIBILITY (PAR). Location of eye/center: At 10:00 PM today, the eye of Typhoon “PABLO” was located based on satellite and surface data at 810 km Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (6.4°N 134.0°E) Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 185 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 220 kph. Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 26 kph. Forecast Positions: Typhoon “PABLO” is expected to be at 235 km East of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur by tomorrow evening. By Tuesday evening, it will be in the vicinity of Iloilo City and at 430km West of Coron Island by Wednesday evening. Public Storm Warning Signal #1: (Winds of 45-60kph is expected within the next 36 hours) Visayas: Bohol, Biliran, Camotes Island, Southern Leyte, Leyte, Eastern Samar, and Western Samar. Mindanao: Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte including Siargao Island, Dinagat Is., Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao del Norte inc. Samal Is., Compostela Valley, Bukidnon, Misamis Oriental and Camiguin. *Estimated rainfall amount is from 20 to 30 mm per hour (heavy - intense) within the 700 km diameter of the Typhoon. *Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Eastern Seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao. *The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 FINALLY a good microwave pass... classic ERC ongoing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 P.S. The apparent deterioration earlier was definitely temporary. It looks pretty spectacular again. That pinhole eye is nicely placed in the middle of the CDO. It's obviously an extremely severe system-- and what's funny is that it looks more like a NATL or Oz cyclone-- quite compact. Not sure it's a true micro, but it's small. You wishing you went on a chase for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 You wishing you went on a chase for it? Well, what happened with Palau is why Josh never goes on chases to islands.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 You wishing you went on a chase for it? Nope. It missed Palau, so this would have been a very expensive bust. Well, what happened with Palau is why Josh never goes on chases to islands.... Bingo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 When was the last Cat 4 storm to landfall in the Surigao provinces? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 A major disaster in the making with that track across Mindanao. Best description would be to look up the narrative on STY Kate in the 1970 ATCR. Not looking good at this point. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Unless there is a southward jog, I don't think Bopha will be as close to Davao City as Kate was, Kate essentially put the city right in the RFQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 NWS WSO in Koror recorded a gust of 70mph (112kph).. their min SLP was 1003mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Unless there is a southward jog, I don't think Bopha will be as close to Davao City as Kate was, Kate essentially put the city right in the RFQ. Surprisingly the highest gust reported during Kate in Davao City was less than 30mph even with the center making landfall just a little more than 30 miles to the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I think Bopha/Pablo may be starting to intensify again based upon re-appearance of a well defined eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 NWS WSO in Koror recorded a gust of 70mph (112kph).. their min SLP was 1003mb... Sounds about right. It missed by a good margin. Surprisingly the highest gust reported during Kate in Davao City was less than 30mph even with the center making landfall just a little more than 30 miles to the South. Wow-- that is kind of surprising. I think Bopha/Pablo may be starting to intensify again based upon re-appearance of a well defined eye. Agreed. Interestingly, the JTWC has it down to 105 kt now, and they show it weakening through to landfall. Let's see if it's got another burst in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 By the way... As per the IR imagery, the center has gained a little latitude and is now at ~7.0N-- which also happens to be the approximate latitude of Davao City. So, basically, the cyclone needs to continue due W and gain no latitude for the next 24 hr to really, seriously impact that population center. That seems unlikely to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I wasn't specifically thinking about Davao City but rather the effects of the track across the interion of north Central Mindanao as Kate did most of its destruction inland. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I wasn't specifically thinking about Davao City but rather the effects of the track across the interion of north Central Mindanao as Kate did most of its destruction inland. Steve Ah, gotcha. So you're talking freshwater flooding, Steve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Surprisingly the highest gust reported during Kate in Davao City was less than 30mph even with the center making landfall just a little more than 30 miles to the South. Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 The eye has really warmed up on IR imagery with very cold clouds around it. I'm ballparking a 70ºC delta by eyeball. ADT is not quite that big. UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 03 DEC 2012 Time : 040000 UTC Lat : 6:54:24 N Lon : 130:43:41 E CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.3 / 945.5mb/122.2kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 6.3 6.7 6.7 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km Center Temp : -19.9C Cloud Region Temp : -77.6C Scene Type : EYE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 The core looks much better, but the NE quad is smushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 despite the lack of really strong winds, there were still some damages reported across Koror... word of major damage in Peleliu but no deaths so far... here's an album by the local TV station in Palau... http://www.oceaniatv...bopha-in-palau/ here's James Reynold's first video from Koror... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Looking at the satellite now, for some reason, reminds me of Andrew through the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Bopha looks a lot stronger than 130 mph sustained right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Whoa! That satellite presentation is a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Whoa! That satellite presentation is a surprise. It looks like the improvement in satellite presentation is corresponding well to the completion of an eyewall replacement cycle. There is some evidence that low latitude systems such as Bopha are less prone to major enlarging of the RMW during ERCs, so the return of the tiny pinhole eye is not all that surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 It looks like the improvement in satellite presentation is corresponding well to the completion of an eyewall replacement cycle. There is some evidence that low latitude systems such as Bopha are less prone to major enlarging of the RMW during ERCs, so the return of the tiny pinhole eye is not all that surprising. I'm assuming this has to do with some kind of equatorial influence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I'm assuming this has to do with some kind of equatorial influence? The closer to the equator you are, the less planetary vorticity is available in the atmosphere. You need some initial rotation to be able to spin up a tropical cyclone. Traditionally most TCs are large enough that some Coriolis force is required for cyclonic flow to develop on spacial scales between mesoscale and synoptic scale. However, the smaller scale flow under mesoscale is typically cyclostrophic, or a balance between the pressure gradient force (PGF) and centrifugal force (CFF). At these scales the Coriolis force is no longer needed to balance the flow, and thus you can get strong rotation in both clockwise and counterclockwise directions (one reason why its possible to have anticyclonic rotating tornadoes). Back to our current case. The radius of maximum winds with Bopha is probably fairly small (like 20-40 km) given the small pinhole eye we have witnessed the last few days. Since the coriolis force is so small south of 10N, the two dominant mechanisms for balancing the flow in the TC are probably the PGF and CFF which can only be balanced is small scale examples like this. As the system gains latitude we will likely see Bopha become larger thanks to the added planetary vorticity increasing the likelihood of outer banding producing larger vorticity away from the RMW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.