Tullioz Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Same latitude that Kate hit 115kt in 1970. Kate was also a smallish storm that went on to slam southern Mindanao. Bopha is expected to brush Surigao del Norte in northern Mindanao and cross Bohol, Mactan, Cebu and Negros as a TY. Steve Things are looking pretty bad for the Northern third of Mindanao now, especially if the 12z GFS were to verify. The damage caused by tropical storm Washi/Sendong last December was catastrophic and that was a very weak system in comparison. I can not imaging what the cost in both property and lives this storm will bring to Both Northern Mindanao and Visayas. While the government seems to be getting the word out better with this storm as compared to last year, this island will still suffer great losses I'm afraid. Not looking forward to the next 72 hours or the days that follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 After doing some checking around Palau has never been hit by anything remotely like this - they do get hit sporadically in spring and winter but all the storms are just beginning to develop when they pass over. This is going to be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 wow.... really worried for Palau... TXPQ27 KNES 012121 TCSWNP A. 26W (BOPHA) B. 01/2030Z C. 5.9N D. 138.2E E. ONE/MTSAT F. T7.5/7.5/D1.5/24HRS G. IR/EIR H. REMARKS...VERY IMPRESSIVE BOPHA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY PAST 6 HOURS AS EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED TO WMG AND EYE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN CMG (USED CENTER OF EYE TO MEASURE EMBEDDED DISTANCE DUE TO SMALL EYE SIZE LESS THAN 30KM). RING TEMPERATURE IS CDG. THIS MAXES OUT ON TEMPERATURE EXTREMES FOR CENTRAL FEATURE TO GIVE DT=7.5. MET=7.0 AND PT=7.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. I. ADDL POSITIONS NIL ...RUMINSKI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 wow.... really worried for Palau... TXPQ27 KNES 012121 TCSWNP A. 26W (BOPHA) B. 01/2030Z C. 5.9N D. 138.2E E. ONE/MTSAT F. T7.5/7.5/D1.5/24HRS G. IR/EIR H. REMARKS...VERY IMPRESSIVE BOPHA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY PAST 6 HOURS AS EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED TO WMG AND EYE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN CMG (USED CENTER OF EYE TO MEASURE EMBEDDED DISTANCE DUE TO SMALL EYE SIZE LESS THAN 30KM). RING TEMPERATURE IS CDG. THIS MAXES OUT ON TEMPERATURE EXTREMES FOR CENTRAL FEATURE TO GIVE DT=7.5. MET=7.0 AND PT=7.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. I. ADDL POSITIONS NIL ...RUMINSKI Perfect Joshphoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 This is very close to cat 5, maybe an eye a tad warmer on IR would do the trick. Full symmetric circle of <-80C cloud tops and quite compact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 After doing some checking around Palau has never been hit by anything remotely like this - they do get hit sporadically in spring and winter but all the storms are just beginning to develop when they pass over. This is going to be bad. STY Mike 1990 just passed to north of the island group and there was some reported extensive damage. Actually Mike is a good analog for the forecasted track...it killed hundreds in the Visayas in the Phillipines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Noted deterioration on the western semicircle on the last two satellite frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR WESTERN MICRONESIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1100 AM CHST SUN DEC 2 2012 ISLANDS/ATOLLS AND COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 40 NAUTICAL MILES PMZ161-020700- KOROR PALAU- 1100 AM CHST SUN DEC 2 2012 ...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL... ...STRONG TYPHOON BOPHA STILL MOVING TOWARDS KOROR... .REST OF TODAY...BREEZY. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. COMBINED SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. .TONIGHT...TYPHOON CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. NORTHEAST WIND 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT INCREASING TO 50 TO 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT NEAR MIDNIGHT. WINDS COULD BE STRONGER DEPENDING ON DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM. COMBINED SEAS 15 TO 20 FT OR HIGHER. CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. .MONDAY...TYPHOON CONDITIONS. NORTHEAST WIND 50 TO 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD BE STRONGER DEPENDING ON DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM. COMBINED SEAS 18 TO 22 FT OR HIGHER. CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. .MONDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM FORCE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT...DECREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS COULD BE STRONGER DEPENDING ON DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM. COMBINED SEAS 16 TO 20 FT OR HIGHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 What an incredible storm... probably the most anomalous TC of the year in terms of location and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Noted deterioration on the western semicircle on the last two satellite frames. Definite deterioration. The W side has eroded (as you noted) and the eye is cooling/filling. Should still reach Palau as an intense storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Hard to tell, but TPW looks good. Looks like some colder cloud tops are forming away from the eye, perhaps an EWRC. CIMSS shear suggests it may be a touch East of optimal placement under the anticyclone, 5 to 10 knots of shear from the West, but I'm guessing we'll see a microwave w/ a secondary eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 On the IR loop, there's been a definite jog W in the last 3 hr or so. If that continues, the core could miss Palau to the S-- although it's hard to tell; it could be trochoidal wobbling (what we saw with Wilma in the NW Caribbean). The cyclone's core is pretty small and Palau is a small target, so we're threading the needle here. Whatever happens, it's looking to be a nighttime impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Chaser: https://twitter.com/typhoonfury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 winds starting to gust TS-force in Palau... PTRO 020550Z 06021G38KT 5SM +SHRA FEW008 BKN015CB BKN100 OVC280 27/24 A2969 RMK CB VC ALQDS MOV W= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Structurally, it actually looks like it's recovered a bit from the deterioration we saw earlier. The CDO looks more symmetric again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 On the IR loop, there's been a definite jog W in the last 3 hr or so. If that continues, the core could miss Palau to the S-- although it's hard to tell; it could be trochoidal wobbling (what we saw with Wilma in the NW Caribbean). The cyclone's core is pretty small and Palau is a small target, so we're threading the needle here. Whatever happens, it's looking to be a nighttime impact. Looks like that jog to the West will be just enough to keep Palau from sustaining a direct hit. I hope this Westward wobble is very temporary and the storm resumes its Northwest heading again soon. Certainly not wanting a hit anywhere in Mindanao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Looks like that jog to the West will be just enough to keep Palau from sustaining a direct hit. I hope this Westward wobble is very temporary and the storm resumes its Northwest heading again soon. then again, Koror--which is the most populated in Palau--is on the southern end so while they may not get cat 4 winds, they may still see strong and potentially damaging typhoon-force winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 then again, Koror--which is the most populated in Palau--is on the southern end so while they may not get cat 4 winds, they may still see strong and potentially damaging typhoon-force winds... Oh, I think for sure Koror is going to get a heavy impact-- and I agree, they're probably going to get hurricane winds. Latest IR frame shows an almost due-W motion continuing. It might be more than a wobble at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 P.S. The apparent deterioration earlier was definitely temporary. It looks pretty spectacular again. That pinhole eye is nicely placed in the middle of the CDO. It's obviously an extremely severe system-- and what's funny is that it looks more like a NATL or Oz cyclone-- quite compact. Not sure it's a true micro, but it's small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Oh, I think for sure Koror is going to get a heavy impact-- and I agree, they're probably going to get hurricane winds. Latest IR frame shows an almost due-W motion continuing. It might be more than a wobble at this point. Yeah, it's actually lost a little latitude in the past few hours. Palau will still be significantly impacted, but I think confidence is increasing that the core will miss the island chain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Here is a live cast for those interested. (Time sensitive) http://www.westernpa...e-conversation/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Yeah, it's actually lost a little latitude in the past few hours. Palau will still be significantly impacted, but I think confidence is increasing that the core will miss the island chain. Yep-- agreed. The motion for over 6 hr has been essentially due W, with wobbles. It is now SE of Koror-- meaning it would have to take a pretty dramatic turn N to really nail the town at this point. And, like you, I'm starting to think the core could miss the island chain altogether. By the way, JTWC has it up to 135 kt. If it misses, man are they lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Ironic that Dvorak T numbers are 1.0 lower than their peak, yet JTWC has it at its peak intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Totally intense-looking system. If the core does miss Palau, holy crap, did they get lucky: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Koror now gusting to tropical storm force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Yeah, unless something crazy happens at this point, it's going to miss Palau. The 0930Z IR image has the pinhole eye at exactly 6.5N 136.0E, which I've marked on Google maps. It would need to jog N in some crazy way for the core to impact Palau now. Hurricane winds extend 30 nmi N of the center, so they should impact some of the islands further S in the chain. I'm sure James is a little pissed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Babelthuap, which is south of Palau and may take a direct hit, has a gust to 47 mph. Edit: Looking at the satellite, there is no way Babelthuap will take a direct hit, and the same could be said for Angaur airstrip, located south of Babelthuap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Babelthuap, which is south of Palau and may take a direct hit, has a gust to 47 mph. You must be thinking of a different island. Babelthuap (Babeldaob) is the largest island of Palau and is actually N of Koror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 You must be thinking of a different island. Babelthuap (Babeldaob) is the largest island of Palau and is actually N of Koror. You are right, I was thinking of Peleliu Airport, and I think I saw Babelthuap and assumed it was on that island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Based on the 1130Z IR image, the pinhole eye is located at almost exactly 6.5N 134.5E, which I've plotted in Google Maps. The cyclone has been barreling due-W for a while, and is now around 50 mi due S of Koror, which might just get inside the 50-kt radius: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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