wxmx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 one last hurrah for the WPAC this year?? i know about Vamei (but only classified as TS by JMA), but what's the nearest hurricane/typhoon to equator?? Ekeka '92 probably...became a hurricane @6N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 one last hurrah for the WPAC this year?? i know about Vamei (but only classified as TS by JMA), but what's the nearest hurricane/typhoon to equator?? Ekeka '92 probably...became a hurricane 6N Cyclone Agni, in the North Indian Ocean 2004... classified as a TS at an incredible 0.7N (!), Cat. 1 at 3.4N http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/n_indian/2004H/AGNI/track.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Cyclone Agni, in the North Indian Ocean 2004... classified as a TS at an incredible 0.7N (!), Cat. 1 at 3.4N http://weather.unisy.../AGNI/track.dat Unofficially, yes, as the IMD, the official warning center for the N IO, assessed it as a weaker storm and more than a day after the TWC began it's advisories. So, officially, it's Ekeka...not that I favor IMD over the JTWC, both kinda suck, but IMD suckage is in another level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 STY Kate in 1970- Cat at 4.3N, Cat4 at 4.5 N. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Bopha getting slightly better organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Unofficially, yes, as the IMD, the official warning center for the N IO, assessed it as a weaker storm and more than a day after the TWC began it's advisories. So, officially, it's Ekeka...not that I favor IMD over the JTWC, both kinda suck, but IMD suckage is in another level. Somewhere in my archives I have a QS and accompanying satellite image of the pre-Agni counterclockwise circulation centered a wee bit SOUTH of the EQ. Great stuff. Just found this... http://www.academia....ical_Mechanisms 2. Synoptic History of Agni Two deep convective mesoscale disturbances were observed in the Equatorial Indian ocean on 19 November 2004 and at 18UTC 26 November 2004. The first disturbance was located at about 800 km southeast of Colombo, Sri Lanka and the second at about 160 Km north of equator. The second disturbance originated from the remnants of the first disturbance as low level circulation, with the maximum wind speed of around 11 m s1 (20 Knots). From 00 UTC 27 November 2004 to 03 UTC 28 November 2004 the second disturbance organized itself to form Tropical Cyclone Agni. The deep convection associated with it organized with maximum surface wind speed of around 15 m s1 (30 knots) surrounding the center. During the organization, it was observed that the centers of the intensification moved about half degree south of the equator without losing its counter clockwise rotation. This erratic behavior questioned the necessary condition of required large Coriolis parameter either side of equator for the genesis of tropical cyclone. After surviving its excursion south of equator, at 06 UTC 28 November 2004 this tropical disturbance strengthened to tropical storm and was located around 75 Km north of equator. Then, cyclone Agni followed northwestward track for most of its life span and intensified as tropical cyclone on 12 UTC 29 November, 2004. After 06 UTC 30 November 2004 the cyclone passed through the region of heavy wind shear. This lead to its dissipation from tropical cyclone to tropical storm on 18 UTC 30 November 2004. Further its movement towards Somalia coast made it to dissipate on 18 UTC 3 December 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 27, 2012 Author Share Posted November 27, 2012 not that I favor IMD over the JTWC, both kinda suck, but IMD suckage is in another level. yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Bopha getting slightly better organized. I think there was an apartheid era South African politician by that name. Doesn't move much in the longer term on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Latest JTWC intensity forecast 110 knots in 5 days, Euro stalls/slowly weakens Bopha just off RP Days 8-10 mag.ncep.noaa.gov site Pacific display ends just East of the RP. Annoying. 18Z GFS (AccuWx PPV) recurves in a week, no threat to Philippines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 EURO shifted west and now tracks this thing into Central Philippines.. GFS and NOGAPS remain on an OTS solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 GFS is still a miss, but trend is closer to the RP, and stronger. Hotlink satellite... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Hard to tell with the lack of microwave imagery... but the storm appears to be moving WSW currently... very peculiar for being S of 5N. The development was likely aided by the superpositining of a favorable MJO phase alongside an equatorial rossby wave. Both of these features were overhead of the system during genesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 This time of year it becomes a crapshoot as to whetehr or not a storm will hit the Philippines. This track is low latitude so it could hit the Visayas or the Bicol/Batangas region of Luzon. Once a December storm gets poleward of 15N they generally recurve and quickly go ET. However, it should be noted that Typhoon Jean whacked Manila pretty hard on Christmas Day in 1947. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 looking better on MW despite losing latitude today... models also converging on a track towards Eastern Philippines.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Looking better, 82 knots by ADT and most of the system is South of 5ºN. I'm impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 An eye was visible on visible imagery for a few frames, but is now obscured. -80º cloud tops very near where the eye was briefly visible. Bopha should be about two days from getting the Pagasa (Filipino) name "Ofel", best I can tell. New GFS hits central islands, then drifts weakening storm Northward into and through Luzon, which sounds bad for rain/flooding. As mentioned, the eye has become obscured, and best I can tell, is just South of the cold blob. JMA at 0345Z had it as 50 knots, even with 1 minute/10 minute sustained 10-15% higher, IMH & amateur opinion. Bopha is nearly a typhoon based on the eye feature and JMA may be a shade too weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Ekeka '92 probably...became a hurricane @6N See post above, I think we'll get a typhoon around 4ºN. Even more to make Bopha interesting, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 An eye was visible on visible imagery for a few frames, but is now obscured. -80º cloud tops very near where the eye was briefly visible. Bopha should be about two days from getting the Pagasa (Filipino) name "Ofel", best I can tell. New GFS hits central islands, then drifts weakening storm Northward into and through Luzon, which sounds bad for rain/flooding. As mentioned, the eye has become obscured, and best I can tell, is just South of the cold blob. JMA at 0345Z had it as 50 knots, even with 1 minute/10 minute sustained 10-15% higher, IMH & amateur opinion. Bopha is nearly a typhoon based on the eye feature and JMA may be a shade too weak You are just one letter off, Bopha will actually become Pablo once it enters Pagasa area of responsibility. Hoping for a curve out to sea before reaching the Philippines. Doesn't take much of a disturbance to result in a tragedy in this country. I traveled to Cagayan de Oro last weekend and they have yet to fully recover from the tropical storm that affected the area last December. With Bopha forming as far South as it is, I am even keeping an eye on this one from here in Davao although it looks like a miss to the North at this point. Typhoons are very rare in Mindanao especially the Southern half of the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 yes it's Pablo... meanwhile, JTWC has upgraded this to a Typhoon; eyewall just keeps getting better on MWI... as always though, JMA is slow with the intensity trends and is keeping Bopha as a 50kt STS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 You are just one letter off, Bopha will actually become Pablo once it enters Pagasa area of responsibility. Hoping for a curve out to sea before reaching the Philippines. Doesn't take much of a disturbance to result in a tragedy in this country. I traveled to Cagayan de Oro last weekend and they have yet to fully recover from the tropical storm that affected the area last December. With Bopha forming as far South as it is, I am even keeping an eye on this one from here in Davao although it looks like a miss to the North at this point. Typhoons are very rare in Mindanao especially the Southern half of the island. I remeber 'Nina', Ofel slipped by when I wasn't looking, I guess. Pablo is even better. It is a popular name in the Mexican-American community, and will be even easier for me to remember. JMA is a STS, but at 60 knots and using the 12% addition for one minute, they are pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Considering Bopha is forecasted to make a close approach to Koror, here is NWSFO's Guam text forecast for them. COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR WESTERN MICRONESIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 500 AM CHST SAT DEC 1 2012 ISLANDS/ATOLLS AND COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 40 NAUTICAL MILES PMZ161-010100- KOROR PALAU- 500 AM CHST SAT DEC 1 2012 TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR INTENSIFYING TYPHOON BOPHA TRACKING TOWARDS KOROR TODAY NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT. COMBINED SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. TONIGHT BREEZY. NORTH WIND 15 TO 25 KT. COMBINED SEAS 7 TO 9 FT. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY WINDY. NORTH WIND 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. COMBINED SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY NIGHT WINDY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TYPHOON CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE. SOUTHWEST WIND 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT IN HEAVIER SHOWERS INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMBINED SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY TYPHOON CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTH WIND 55 TO 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. COMBINED SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Super RI! :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Josh would like this. Tight microcane with pinhole eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Extremely impressive RI over the past six hours. Beautiful tight micro-cane as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Not bad for 4.5N! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Same latitude that Kate hit 115kt in 1970. Kate was also a smallish storm that went on to slam southern Mindanao. Bopha is expected to brush Surigao del Norte in northern Mindanao and cross Bohol, Mactan, Cebu and Negros as a TY. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Same latitude that Kate hit 115kt in 1970. Kate was also a smallish storm that went on to slam southern Mindanao. Bopha is expected to brush Surigao del Norte in northern Mindanao and cross Bohol, Mactan, Cebu and Negros as a TY. Steve JMA forecast bends it Northwest after a similar landfall point as JTWC, which continues WNW. Or more of a Samar and Leyte threat. But up until initial landfall, they are very close. Three days to hone the final forecast. If I haven't pasted this already, this isn't a bad site for typhoons near the RP. http://www.typhoon2000.ph/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 My friend, James, is in Palau. If this thing stays on track, he'll see a really good impact. The WPAC has a been a cornucopia this year-- as solid as our season has completely, unabashedly sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 I wonder how small that eye actually is now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 NWSFO Guam forecast for Koror, Palau PMZ161-011900- KOROR PALAU- 1100 PM CHST SAT DEC 1 2012 ...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL... ...INTENSIFYING TYPHOON BOPHA STILL TRACKING TOWARD KOROR... .OVERNIGHT...BREEZY. NORTH WIND 15 TO 25 KT. COMBINED SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. .SUNDAY...WINDY. WIND 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR SHOWERS. COMBINED SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. .SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDY. TYPHOON CONDITIONS LIKELY. WIND 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS COULD BE STRONGER DEPENDING ON DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM. COMBINED SEAS 15 TO 20 FT OR HIGHER. CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. .MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...TYPHOON CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND 50 TO 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT IN THE MORNING. WINDS COULD BE STRONGER DEPENDING ON DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM. WINDS DECREASING DURING MONDAY NIGHT. COMBINED SEAS 16 TO 22 FT OR HIGHER. CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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