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West Pacific Tropical Action 2012


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Radar presentation is not amazing. I'm wondering if the eyewall is that small arced band just N of the island, or the wider circle engulfing the island. Like, is that clear area over the island the eye or a moat?

Also, I'm having difficulty reconciling the IR presentation with the radar-- they don't seem to correspond. Confusing:

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On hourly obs, Kadena bottomed at 949 mb and is back to 950 mb. Hard to tell from radar and satellite if they ever got into the eye between hourly obs. Looks like eye would have passed them just to the West on satellite, but it was filling and looking ragged as it approached

Yeah, I'm having trouble reconciling the radar and IR, but it looks like the center missed to the N and W.

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Okinawa seems to have the "halfacane" problem that the N Gulf Coast has: this is the second landfall in a row where it looks like there's a N eyewall but nothing to the S:

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26ºN isn't that far out of the tropics. Miami-ish. Be interesting to see if the winds pick up when the outer eyewall or whatever that is on radar reaches there.

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26ºN isn't that far out of the tropics. Miami-ish. Be interesting to see if the winds pick up when the outer eyewall or whatever that is on radar reaches there.

even on the backside (i'm assuming it is), Kadena just reported sustained of 65kt with gusts of 100kt... also, i'm reading a lot of damage reports out on Kadena FB Page, lots of uprooted trees and even flipped cars...

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even on the backside (i'm assuming it is), Kadena just reported sustained of 65kt with gusts of 100kt... also, i'm reading a lot of damage reports out on Kadena FB Page, lots of uprooted trees and even flipped cars...

Wow-- interesting-- and completely puzzling. The two previous typhoons looked much better on satellite and radar and did not produce impressive obs. This one actually looked pretty craptastic on radar as it passed through-- just not a good-looking system at all, not to mention it looks like the center missed to the N-- and yet the effects on the island seem to be harsher.

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Wow-- interesting-- and completely puzzling. The two previous typhoons looked much better on satellite and radar and did not produce impressive obs. This one actually looked pretty craptastic on radar as it passed through-- just not a good-looking system at all, not to mention it looks like the center missed to the N-- and yet the effects on the island seem to be harsher.

Bolaven had about 1000 concentric eyewalls, so its energy was probably really spread out.

Most of Okinawa's population lives on the southern 1/2 of the island. Samba jogged right in the last minute, and its left eyewall barely missed the southern half of Okinawa. That + the fact Okinawa was on the weaker side means most of the population, and most of the obs network, probably experienced minimal hurricane winds or less. But in the eyewall, conditions were very rough per James Reynolds (I think).

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This time of year, the mean position of the Polar Front is not too far north of Okinawa which means that a storm approaching the island can pull in some of the cooler drier and more stable air of the nascent NE monsoon into the circulation. By the latter half of October the Polar Front is far enough south that storms crossing northern Luzon run afoul of the NE Monsoon in the South China Sea and often fail to make across the SCS.

Steve

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Bolaven had about 1000 concentric eyewalls, so its energy was probably really spread out.

Most of Okinawa's population lives on the southern 1/2 of the island. Samba jogged right in the last minute, and its left eyewall barely missed the southern half of Okinawa. That + the fact Okinawa was on the weaker side means most of the population, and most of the obs network, probably experienced minimal hurricane winds or less. But in the eyewall, conditions were very rough per James Reynolds (I think).

Yes, we talked at length (earlier in this thread) Re: both Bolaven's 1,000 concentric eyewalls and where the observing stations in Sanba were. That doesn't change the fact Jelawat's radar presentation was pretty crappy when compared with the surface obs and on-the-ground reports, which were impressive. Locals are describing it as the severest typhoon of the year, which neither I nor you would have guessed from its scrambled-eggs radar presentation as it crossed the island.

This time of year, the mean position of the Polar Front is not too far north of Okinawa which means that a storm approaching the island can pull in some of the cooler drier and more stable air of the nascent NE monsoon into the circulation. By the latter half of October the Polar Front is far enough south that storms crossing northern Luzon run afoul of the NE Monsoon in the South China Sea and often fail to make across the SCS.

Steve

OK, that makes sense. Jelawat's sharp recurve and acceleration NE reminds me a bit of October systems in the NW Caribbean.

So from here on out, the good stuff will be further S-- i.e., Luzon, etc.?

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James Reynolds' footage from Okinawa. There are some cool shots in here, and it looks stronger than the other two that he's shot there this year. Kudos to him for getting this live so fast!

P.S. On a side note, I'm aghast at all the traffic on the streets while a pretty-strong typhoon is hitting. I get that this is a cultural thing, and I do think sometimes Americans overreact to hurricanes, but what you see in some of these shots is just reckless:

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even on the backside (i'm assuming it is), Kadena just reported sustained of 65kt with gusts of 100kt... also, i'm reading a lot of damage reports out on Kadena FB Page, lots of uprooted trees and even flipped cars...

It was that backside or remnant eyewall or whatever, Strongest winds on hourly obs post minmum pressure came a couple hours later and with heavy rain, and lasted a while.

Car flip video indirectly suggests just how well base housing is constructed...

AM (5) Sep 29 77 (25) 77 (25) 28.53 (966) WNW 60 heavy rain
Midnight (4) Sep 29 77 (25) 77 (25) 28.44 (963) WNW 70 heavy rain; fog
11 PM (3) Sep 28 78 (26) 78 (26) 28.22 (955) WNW 43 mist
10 PM (2) Sep 28 78 (26) 78 (26) 28.04 (949) WSW 40 light drizzle; mist
9 PM (1) Sep 28 77 (25) 77 (25) 28.08 (950) SE 43 light rain; mist
8 PM (0) Sep 28 77 (25) 77 (25) 28.43 (962) SE 61 light rain; mist

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They didn't have Facebook when I was in the military...

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KadenaAirBase

5 hours ago

Team Okinawa,

We are in TCCOR-1R and we will be in 1R until sometime tomorrow morning. Conditions in certain areas of the bases are dangerous. There is a lot of damage on the roads with debris, downed power lines, and even some vehicles flipped.

Do not be on the roads unless you have a recovery team pass. Security Forces will be checking for passes. If you need to go outside, do so careful...

ly and only around your house.

The 18th Wing Commander asks everyone’s patience during recovery to ensure we all get back to normal safely. Again, stay off the roads.

The recovery teams will be focusing on:

1. Securing dangerous conditions, including downed power lines

2. Getting power restored on base

3. Cleaning up debris from roadways and pathways

4. Recovering our aircraft to ensure we meet operational requirements

After this is done, facility managers will be notified to check on their buildings. Thank you again for your patience. Maj Anderson

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Climatologically speaking we now start the peak threat time for Guam and the Philippines in the latter particularly the Central and southern portions of Luzon. They can even get December storms. Prior to Patsy in 1970 Manila's worse hit was Jean on Christmas Day 1947. Clark's worse hit since before WWII was on November 28th and Guam's biggest typhoon hit was STY Karen in November 1962 followed by Paka in December 1997 in second place.</p>

 </p>

Steve</p>

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I guess after a slow 2011 and 2012, if we had a storm in the Gulf that looked like Typhoon Prius, I might get more excited, but it is pretty meh. It wins the organization battle with TS Rafael, (but doesn't dominate, even with an eye) but cold cloud tops puts them in a tie for hotness. Not all that hot, greenish colors on a scale from blue to orange to red to white.

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