HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 Radar presentation is not amazing. I'm wondering if the eyewall is that small arced band just N of the island, or the wider circle engulfing the island. Like, is that clear area over the island the eye or a moat? Also, I'm having difficulty reconciling the IR presentation with the radar-- they don't seem to correspond. Confusing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 Okinawa seems to have the "halfacane" problem that the N Gulf Coast has: this is the second landfall in a row where it looks like there's a N eyewall but nothing to the S: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 On hourly obs, Kadena bottomed at 949 mb and is back to 950 mb. Hard to tell from radar and satellite if they ever got into the eye between hourly obs. Looks like eye would have passed them just to the West on satellite, but it was filling and looking ragged as it approached Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 On hourly obs, Kadena bottomed at 949 mb and is back to 950 mb. Hard to tell from radar and satellite if they ever got into the eye between hourly obs. Looks like eye would have passed them just to the West on satellite, but it was filling and looking ragged as it approached Yeah, I'm having trouble reconciling the radar and IR, but it looks like the center missed to the N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 Okinawa seems to have the "halfacane" problem that the N Gulf Coast has: this is the second landfall in a row where it looks like there's a N eyewall but nothing to the S: 26ºN isn't that far out of the tropics. Miami-ish. Be interesting to see if the winds pick up when the outer eyewall or whatever that is on radar reaches there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 26ºN isn't that far out of the tropics. Miami-ish. Be interesting to see if the winds pick up when the outer eyewall or whatever that is on radar reaches there. even on the backside (i'm assuming it is), Kadena just reported sustained of 65kt with gusts of 100kt... also, i'm reading a lot of damage reports out on Kadena FB Page, lots of uprooted trees and even flipped cars... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 even on the backside (i'm assuming it is), Kadena just reported sustained of 65kt with gusts of 100kt... also, i'm reading a lot of damage reports out on Kadena FB Page, lots of uprooted trees and even flipped cars... Wow-- interesting-- and completely puzzling. The two previous typhoons looked much better on satellite and radar and did not produce impressive obs. This one actually looked pretty craptastic on radar as it passed through-- just not a good-looking system at all, not to mention it looks like the center missed to the N-- and yet the effects on the island seem to be harsher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 Kadena's METAR just reported an hourly precip. amount of 17.15 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 Wow-- interesting-- and completely puzzling. The two previous typhoons looked much better on satellite and radar and did not produce impressive obs. This one actually looked pretty craptastic on radar as it passed through-- just not a good-looking system at all, not to mention it looks like the center missed to the N-- and yet the effects on the island seem to be harsher. Bolaven had about 1000 concentric eyewalls, so its energy was probably really spread out. Most of Okinawa's population lives on the southern 1/2 of the island. Samba jogged right in the last minute, and its left eyewall barely missed the southern half of Okinawa. That + the fact Okinawa was on the weaker side means most of the population, and most of the obs network, probably experienced minimal hurricane winds or less. But in the eyewall, conditions were very rough per James Reynolds (I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 This time of year, the mean position of the Polar Front is not too far north of Okinawa which means that a storm approaching the island can pull in some of the cooler drier and more stable air of the nascent NE monsoon into the circulation. By the latter half of October the Polar Front is far enough south that storms crossing northern Luzon run afoul of the NE Monsoon in the South China Sea and often fail to make across the SCS. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 Bolaven had about 1000 concentric eyewalls, so its energy was probably really spread out. Most of Okinawa's population lives on the southern 1/2 of the island. Samba jogged right in the last minute, and its left eyewall barely missed the southern half of Okinawa. That + the fact Okinawa was on the weaker side means most of the population, and most of the obs network, probably experienced minimal hurricane winds or less. But in the eyewall, conditions were very rough per James Reynolds (I think). Yes, we talked at length (earlier in this thread) Re: both Bolaven's 1,000 concentric eyewalls and where the observing stations in Sanba were. That doesn't change the fact Jelawat's radar presentation was pretty crappy when compared with the surface obs and on-the-ground reports, which were impressive. Locals are describing it as the severest typhoon of the year, which neither I nor you would have guessed from its scrambled-eggs radar presentation as it crossed the island. This time of year, the mean position of the Polar Front is not too far north of Okinawa which means that a storm approaching the island can pull in some of the cooler drier and more stable air of the nascent NE monsoon into the circulation. By the latter half of October the Polar Front is far enough south that storms crossing northern Luzon run afoul of the NE Monsoon in the South China Sea and often fail to make across the SCS. Steve OK, that makes sense. Jelawat's sharp recurve and acceleration NE reminds me a bit of October systems in the NW Caribbean. So from here on out, the good stuff will be further S-- i.e., Luzon, etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 car flipped video from Kadena... https://www.facebook...v=4603812015888 there's a lot more reports like that around the island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 car flipped video from Kadena... https://www.facebook...v=4603812015888 there's a lot more reports like that around the island... Wow! What's so weird is that there's nothing else in the image to suggest the wind is even blowing-- no trees or anything-- so the car is the only object that's moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 James Reynolds' footage from Okinawa. There are some cool shots in here, and it looks stronger than the other two that he's shot there this year. Kudos to him for getting this live so fast! P.S. On a side note, I'm aghast at all the traffic on the streets while a pretty-strong typhoon is hitting. I get that this is a cultural thing, and I do think sometimes Americans overreact to hurricanes, but what you see in some of these shots is just reckless: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 even on the backside (i'm assuming it is), Kadena just reported sustained of 65kt with gusts of 100kt... also, i'm reading a lot of damage reports out on Kadena FB Page, lots of uprooted trees and even flipped cars... It was that backside or remnant eyewall or whatever, Strongest winds on hourly obs post minmum pressure came a couple hours later and with heavy rain, and lasted a while. Car flip video indirectly suggests just how well base housing is constructed... AM (5) Sep 29 77 (25) 77 (25) 28.53 (966) WNW 60 heavy rain Midnight (4) Sep 29 77 (25) 77 (25) 28.44 (963) WNW 70 heavy rain; fog 11 PM (3) Sep 28 78 (26) 78 (26) 28.22 (955) WNW 43 mist 10 PM (2) Sep 28 78 (26) 78 (26) 28.04 (949) WSW 40 light drizzle; mist 9 PM (1) Sep 28 77 (25) 77 (25) 28.08 (950) SE 43 light rain; mist 8 PM (0) Sep 28 77 (25) 77 (25) 28.43 (962) SE 61 light rain; mist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 They didn't have Facebook when I was in the military... KadenaAirBase 5 hours ago Team Okinawa, We are in TCCOR-1R and we will be in 1R until sometime tomorrow morning. Conditions in certain areas of the bases are dangerous. There is a lot of damage on the roads with debris, downed power lines, and even some vehicles flipped. Do not be on the roads unless you have a recovery team pass. Security Forces will be checking for passes. If you need to go outside, do so careful... ly and only around your house. The 18th Wing Commander asks everyone’s patience during recovery to ensure we all get back to normal safely. Again, stay off the roads. The recovery teams will be focusing on: 1. Securing dangerous conditions, including downed power lines 2. Getting power restored on base 3. Cleaning up debris from roadways and pathways 4. Recovering our aircraft to ensure we meet operational requirements After this is done, facility managers will be notified to check on their buildings. Thank you again for your patience. Maj Anderson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 Climatologically speaking we now start the peak threat time for Guam and the Philippines in the latter particularly the Central and southern portions of Luzon. They can even get December storms. Prior to Patsy in 1970 Manila's worse hit was Jean on Christmas Day 1947. Clark's worse hit since before WWII was on November 28th and Guam's biggest typhoon hit was STY Karen in November 1962 followed by Paka in December 1997 in second place.</p> </p> Steve</p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 A sad reminder on the dangers of these typhoons.. Jelawat may be moving away at that point but the waves from the storm can still be deadly; RIP... James Reynolds caught the whole thing... http://youtu.be/hwgJ0egdGeA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 ^^^ Did this guy have a death wish?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 I mean...jesus...but what the hell was he thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 I mean...jesus...but what the hell was he thinking? I feel bad, but I'm giving him a darwin award. He was 5 times closer than anyone else and on uneven ground where he couldn't run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Wow. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 I guess after a slow 2011 and 2012, if we had a storm in the Gulf that looked like Typhoon Prius, I might get more excited, but it is pretty meh. It wins the organization battle with TS Rafael, (but doesn't dominate, even with an eye) but cold cloud tops puts them in a tie for hotness. Not all that hot, greenish colors on a scale from blue to orange to red to white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Leslie and Prapiroon must be Cousins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 WPAC Season isn't dead yet...! we have Son-Tinh--a tiny Cat 1 moving between Hainan and Vietnam... could be Vietnam's first typhoon landfall this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Son-tinh now up to 110kt according to JTWC. Satellite shows a compact CDO with well defined eye. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 yup, and a pretty small eye at that... unfortunately, radars around Vietnam are pretty poor and the radar from Hainan (although much better) can only pick up the eastern side... here's as best as it could be i guess before landfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 New TD in WPAC around... 5N? With rainbands extending south of the Equator... JTWC expects it to maintain a low latitude while strengthening to typhoon status and then some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 one last hurrah for the WPAC this year?? i know about Vamei (but only classified as TS by JMA), but what's the nearest hurricane/typhoon to equator?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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