am19psu Posted September 24, 2012 Author Share Posted September 24, 2012 Wow, that got out of hand fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 Jellyroll is now Cat 5 (140 kt) as per the latest JTWC package. I guess that ERC worked out OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 Jellyroll is now Cat 5 (140 kt) as per the latest JTWC package. I guess that ERC worked out OK. ERCs don't take that long.If they do, Weenies are in denial the storms weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Sometimes I truly feel bad for the JTWC forecasters That EWRC really pumped this thing up. Looks like it may have peaked though 2012SEP24 183200 7.1 896.9/ +2.7 /143.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT ON OFF 15.35 -76.74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Sometimes I truly feel bad for the JTWC forecasters That EWRC really pumped this thing up. Looks like it may have peaked though 2012SEP24 183200 7.1 896.9/ +2.7 /143.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT ON OFF 15.35 -76.74 The track forecast has been all over the place, too. As Adam pointed out to me, the model spread with this one is a little crazy-- hard to get a handle on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Another ERC about to start. Eye is *slowly* shrinking and cooling and microwave indicates a nearly-closed formative outer eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 My goodness that is sexy! http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Jelawat.A2012269.0210.500m.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 JTWC track forecasts close enough to Okinawa I'm not giving up hope for another landfall with weather stations, although JTWC prog suggests beginning of post tropical transition by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 JMA (forecast, not model) actually is forecasting Jelawat to go into Taiwan. 12Z EC has it skirting the east coast of the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 JMA (forecast, not model) actually is forecasting Jelawat to go into Taiwan. 12Z EC has it skirting the east coast of the island. Not that the JTWC forecasts are perfect or anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 JMA (forecast, not model) actually is forecasting Jelawat to go into Taiwan. 12Z EC has it skirting the east coast of the island. Are they? It looks to me like they have it recurving just E of the island-- unless I'm misreading it? The JTWC, by the way, keeps it well offshore in their new forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 oh look! another successful EWRC... but JTWC is no longer expecting this recover in intensity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Cat 2 for Kadena if JTWC is correct. Luckiest folks in the military. . 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, ENDING IN A BIGGER 22-NM EYE. THIS IS CORROBORATED BY A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING ONE FROM A 260644Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED FROM THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD AND IS APPROACHING A RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A POLEWARD STREAM INTO THE BACK END OF A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED EASTWARD TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW TO THE NORTHEAST. STY 18W IS TRACKING ALONG SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)TO THE EAST THAT HAS SINCE REBUILT AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Very nice looking storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Erc in progress. Huge eye forming. This should make for some nice screenshots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Erc in progress. Huge eye forming. This should make for some nice screenshots Actually, ERC just ended successfully...no new outer eyewall forming as of yet, conditions are favorable for eye contraction/strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Actually, ERC just ended successfully...no new outer eyewall forming as of yet, conditions are favorable for eye contraction/strengthening. Should be able to maintain intensity for another 12-18 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Are they? It looks to me like they have it recurving just E of the island-- unless I'm misreading it? The JTWC, by the way, keeps it well offshore in their new forecast. Josh, I was basing that on what a colleague was showing me. Maybe he was looking at an old forecast? Anyway, great looking typhoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Insane MODIS pass Beautiful "Pin-wheel" eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Kadena AFB in TCCOR 3. 2012 has been a huge success for them, even if Jelywat is weakening when it gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Morning update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 91 mph wind gust at Kadena. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 unlike with Sanba and Bolaven, it wasn't that difficult to find a reporting station that had typhoon-sustained in the Japanese Islands... scouring METARs and the JMA AMeDAS, the highest sustained winds i've found so far was 70kt... the highest gust i've found was 115kt, while the lowest pressure i've found so far was 952hPa... we'll probably see higher winds as Jelawat makes landfall anytime soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 unlike with Sanba and Bolaven, it wasn't that difficult to find a reporting station that had typhoon-sustained in the Japanese Islands... scouring METARs and the JMA AMeDAS, the highest sustained winds i've found so far was 70kt... the highest gust i've found was 115kt, while the lowest pressure i've found so far was 952hPa... we'll probably see higher winds as Jelawat makes landfall anytime soon... Where were those readings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Where were those readings? the pressure was recorded in Miyako-jima.. the 70kt sustained were recorded in numerous stations, small islands located 200-300km southwest of Okinawa... i found the 115-kt sustained in Tokashiki although i do have to note the station is located roughly 600ft ASL... the nearby station closer to sea level had a gust of 100kt.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 the pressure was recorded in Miyako-jima.. the 70kt sustained were recorded in numerous stations, small islands located 200-300km southwest of Okinawa... i found the 115-kt sustained in Tokashiki although i do have to note the station is located roughly 600ft ASL... the nearby station closer to sea level had a gust of 100kt.. Wait-- 115 kt sustained? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 Wait-- 115 kt sustained? oops, gust.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 oops, gust.. I was gonna say! The latest IR suggests a jog N. The center might miss the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 P.S. I'm not sure if that IR image is correctly aligned with the landmasses, as the loop on the previous page shows the center further S. Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 112 mph wind gust at Kadena. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.