Ed Lizard Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Looking at the JMA 3 radar hour loops, the eye probably will NOT pass over Kadena AFB, which is about a third of the way North and on the Western side of Okinawa.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 So far, no sustained typhoon force winds or even typhoon force gusts have been recorded at Kadena-they've been gusting around 60 kt with sustained in the 40's. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Looking at the JMA 3 radar hour loops, the eye probably will NOT pass over Kadena AFB, which is about a third of the way North and on the Western side of Okinawa.. I'm on a mobile device without access to all my links. Would you mind posting the latest radar still? Curious to see it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Kadena AFB has had a gust to 63 kt. Judging from the IR, things should be really ramping up at this point-- they're quite close to, if not in, the W eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Actually, I just saw the radar, and. Kadena AFB is definitely outside the eyewall, to the W. They might miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Winds are backing so the center is going to pass east of them. Last Prognostic reasoning noted that the heaviest convection was in the NE quad so that's where the heavy duty squalls would be. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Latest still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 The eye has made landfall-- it's crossing the island. Kadena AFB missed the core to the W. Radar shows some erosion of the s eyewall, so the backside should be less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Oku reporting 53kt sustained with gusts of 90kt; Nago reporting lowest pressure of 947mb... Miyagijima which was right in the eye isn't reporting again this time... if that 1-hour precip forecast from JMA is right, the northeastern eyewall should move really really close to Yoron-jima and that could be our best chance of seeing typhoon sustained Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 In case noone has posted the link to the long (3-day) loop of the Okinawa radar from Brian McNoldy's excellent radar page... http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/sanba12/Sanba_14-16Sep12_okinowa.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Oku reporting 53kt sustained with gusts of 90kt; Nago reporting lowest pressure of 947mb... Miyagijima which was right in the eye isn't reporting again this time... if that 1-hour precip forecast from JMA is right, the northeastern eyewall should move really really close to Yoron-jima and that could be our best chance of seeing typhoon sustained and we finally got typhoon sustained! Yoron-jima reported ~70kt sustained the last hour with gusts of 105kt... Nago bottomed out at 942mb btw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 In case noone has posted the link to the long (3-day) loop of the Okinawa radar from Brian McNoldy's excellent radar page... http://andrew.rsmas....p12_okinowa.gif Cool link! The N eyewall looked awesome as it crossed the island-- there were probably some very high winds in that. The S half of the eyewall looked somewhat eroded, and it was not an attenuation thing, as the center crossed through the radar site. I wonder what the conditions were like after the center-- probably hefty winds but light rain. Either way, a very nice system and most certainly a solid major at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 and we finally got typhoon sustained! Yoron-jima reported ~70kt sustained the last hour with gusts of 105kt... Nago bottomed out at 942mb btw... Cool. Is Yoron-Jima an official reporting station? Judging from the radar, Nago was on the left side of the eye, so the central pressure was probably a few mb lower. Certainly a much better storm than Bolaven, despite the higher pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Cool link! The N eyewall looked awesome as it crossed the island-- there were probably some very high winds in that. The S half of the eyewall looked somewhat eroded, and it was not an attenuation thing, as the center crossed through the radar site. I wonder what the conditions were like after the center-- probably hefty winds but light rain. Either way, a very nice system and most certainly a solid major at landfall. Kadena had 50kt sustained with gusts to 68 kt after the CPA and light rain so you got that right. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Kadena had 50kt sustained with gusts to 68 kt after the CPA and light rain so you got that right. Steve Ah, cool. Just chatted with James. He hit the bull's eye with this-- was on the E coast in Higashi-- right in the center of the eye. Said the front side was "f*cking scary"-- describes a "total white out", and said the wind sounded like an "ear splitting howling banshee". Said the water rose suddenly and he was worried for his safety. Said unfortunately the best of it happened in the darkness and the backside was kinda blah (as we could see on radar)-- but he says the audio is probably awesome. So I think this was a very successful chase for him-- he seems really stoked about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 In case noone has posted the link to the long (3-day) loop of the Okinawa radar from Brian McNoldy's excellent radar page... http://andrew.rsmas....p12_okinowa.gif amazing thanks for sharing! Cool. Is Yoron-Jima an official reporting station? Judging from the radar, Nago was on the left side of the eye, so the central pressure was probably a few mb lower. Certainly a much better storm than Bolaven, despite the higher pressure. yes, it's an airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 James put up some raw video from the storm a little while ago this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 ^^ They build well. I suppose trees susceptible to falling would be culled out by the seemingly annual typhoon hits, but I saw no major damage. The one real TC around here, order of magnitude weaker, roof damage, trees down out the kabooh, gas station pump shelters toppled, etc. It would seem if anyplace has adapted to typhoon hits, it is Okinawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 ^^ They build well. I suppose trees susceptible to falling would be culled out by the seemingly annual typhoon hits, but I saw no major damage. The one real TC around here, order of magnitude weaker, roof damage, trees down out the kabooh, gas station pump shelters toppled, etc. It would seem if anyplace has adapted to typhoon hits, it is Okinawa. Yeah, they do build very well there, huh? That location just had a direct hit from a Cat 3, and yet I couldn't find even superficial evidence of damage. Apparently everything is built with concrete and steel. It reminds me a little bit of parts of Mexico. I'm not suggesting Mexico's up there with Japan, but parts of Mexico are also really sturdy. The town in which I rode out Jova was like that-- everything seemed to be solid concrete, so although the town got hammered by the storm's violent inner core, it looked surprisingly intact afterward. Cool footage from James. I especially like the last few shots with the water coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 as of 20 UTC, here are the latest stats i could find... the eye is now roughly 80km east of Jeju strongest sustained in South Korea: 55kt from Gosan, lowest pressure of 979.8mb in Seogwipo meanwhile in Japan: a station south of Nagasaki reported sustained winds of 60kt while an island west of that recorded a lowest pressure of 978mb... many stations in Japan are still gusting well into 80kts... the eye is roughly 150km or so west of Nagasaki... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 after a week-long hiatus, we now have Tropical Storm Jelawat east of the Philippines nearing Typhoon status... latest microwave showing an improving eyewall.. JTWC forecasting a Cat 3 by early next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 This will be at least 130 kt (1-minute) when the eye clears out, in my view. The strong inflow channel and larger circulation within the monsoon trough, thus focusing omega in the southern quadrant and helping, via diffluent conditions, to strengthen inner convective banding, is characteristic of many small, intense systems that have formed in this region. As the system moves north, some of the forcing should shift to the northern quadrant, so I think that this system will probably peak at 150 kt or so in about another day and a half. This one will likely rival Sanba as the cyclone of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 Should have another STY in the works once that eye clears out. I'd have to say that this one makes a run at "typhoon of the year" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 Jelawat rapidly intensified from a mere TS 12-hours ago to a Category-3 Typhoon... clearing eye surrounded by strong convection... JTWC forecasting a 130-kt in 3 days... JMA forecasting a 115-kt very aggressive from them as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 HWRF WPAC Wind Forecast Chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 The somewhat anemic, banding-type structure--with a very prominent, large, formative outer band--may indicate some mid-level dry-air intrusion is affecting Jelawat, which could mean an eye-wall-replacement cycle may begin within 24 hours as the system heads NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 The somewhat anemic, banding-type structure--with a very prominent, large, formative outer band--may indicate some mid-level dry-air intrusion is affecting Jelawat, which could mean an eye-wall-replacement cycle may begin within 24 hours as the system heads NNW. The ERC is long underway, and has been for ~12-24 hours. If there is any dry air intrusion, it will elongate the time it takes for the ERC to complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 HWRF WPAC Wind Forecast Chart could you share the link to those or are they from the weatherbell models?? The ERC is long underway, and has been for ~12-24 hours. If there is any dry air intrusion, it will elongate the time it takes for the ERC to complete. yeah does actually seem to be nearing completion based on IR... unfortunately, the latest microwave images didn't capture the center... JTWC no longer forecasting intensification, though i think it still has a small chance of recovering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 Interesting, a small warm eye surrounded by something of a moat and then an eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 Here we go Adj. T# up to 7.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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