Ed Lizard Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Given that much advertised Bolaven was quite a bit weaker than expected, despite a 935 hPa pressure, will the Okinawans take this one seriously if it does become a credible threat? Sanba is much tighter and compact and likely to remain stronger if it crosses the island. Steve Checking the Kadena AFB Facebook, still haven't cancelled the Air Force Ball yet, although everything gets cancelled if TCCOR 1C is declared, and they have added a Catholic service at 1600 local Saturday on the assumption the Sunday services will be cancelled. I feel a connection. I spent about an hour at Kadena on a MAC chartered Flying Tigers 747 from Los Angeles to NAS Cubi Point in 1985. SSD floater, cloud tops have warmed a bit but it still looks robust, and it feeder bands on a little more obvious now that there are several daylight frames in the animation, (easier to tell banding versus outflow channels on a loop, and earlier the SSD website was messed up), so it doesn't seem 'annular' . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Given that much advertised Bolaven was quite a bit weaker than expected, despite a 935 hPa pressure, will the Okinawans take this one seriously if it does become a credible threat? Sanba is much tighter and compact and likely to remain stronger if it crosses the island. Steve And if the core does cross a reliable station on the island, I wonder how the winds and pressure will match up. The cyclone will be moving N and weakening when it crosses Okinawa, and Lord knows what kinds of structural changes will occur between now and then. Does anyone know exactly which station was in the center of Bolaven, and what the official highest winds and lowest pressure were? If I understand correctly, the highest measured winds were the same as what was recorded in Louisiana during Isaac-- in the 50-55-kt range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 And if the core does cross a reliable station on the island, I wonder how the winds and pressure will match up. The cyclone will be moving N and weakening when it crosses Okinawa, and Lord knows what kinds of structural changes will occur between now and then. Does anyone know exactly which station was in the center of Bolaven, and what the official highest winds and lowest pressure were? If I understand correctly, the highest measured winds were the same as what was recorded in Louisiana during Isaac-- in the 50-55-kt range. using my prowess in MS Paint, i've drawn up an idealized track of Bolaven during landfall based on JMA radar and track (it was exhibiting trochoidal wobbles during that time)... Bolaven made landfall near the town of Higashi... however, the three nearest stations (Motobu, Kunigami, and Higashi) along the track only report precipitation and not winds nor pressure... the nearest "complete" weather station was Nago and the eye did pass through it IIRC, it recorded a minimum pressure of 935hPa... as for the winds, AFAIK (maybe i missed some reports) there were no stations that reported typhoon sustained...the island of Yoron-jima (circled in red) reported winds of around 60kt i believe and gusts of up to 80kt... but i'm guessing it kept its Typhoon intensity (although undergoing ETT) up through Korea cause a station in Southwestern SK--Mokpo--reported sustained winds of 110kph before the station stopped reporting (and they were about 100km or 60mi east of the center)... interestingly JTWC (on one of their prognostic reasonings) said that the highest winds recorded in Okinawa were 90kt gusting to 120kt... i'm really not sure where they got that... NHK World on the evening of August 26 (Japan Time) said their data (which i'm guessing is taken from JMA) only got winds of around 100 to 110kph... another thing about winds is this recon mission from Taiwan which flew within 80nm of the eye... the nearest dropsonde was about 70 to 80nm away and recorded 90kt on 925hPa level and a surface wind speed of around 60kt... ******************* as for Sanba, it is forecast to move more on the western part of the island which has more complete reporting stations (Naha and Kadena most importantly)... i'm not sure if Taiwan will fly into Sanba tomorrow although they did it with Bolaven last time and it was even farther away from Taiwan so really hoping they do it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandHurricanes Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 What is the pressure on this thing? I have looked on the joint typhoon warning center website but cant find any mention of pressure!! cant find it anywhere on internet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 What is the pressure on this thing? I have looked on the joint typhoon warning center website but cant find any mention of pressure!! cant find it anywhere on internet I don't have a conversion chart, but this shows it at 900hPa TY 1216 (SANBA) Issued at 12:45 UTC, 14 September 2012 <Analyses at 14/12 UTC> Scale Large Intensity Violent Center position N20°10'(20.2°) E129°50'(129.8°) Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(11kt) Central pressure 900hPa Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(110kt) Maximum wind gust speed 80m/s(155kt) Area of 50kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM) Area of 30kt winds or more ALL560km(300NM) http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 I don't have a conversion chart, but this shows it at 900hPa TY 1216 (SANBA) Issued at 12:45 UTC, 14 September 2012 <Analyses at 14/12 UTC> Scale Large Intensity Violent Center position N20°10'(20.2°) E129°50'(129.8°) Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(11kt) Central pressure 900hPa Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(110kt) Maximum wind gust speed 80m/s(155kt) Area of 50kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM) Area of 30kt winds or more ALL560km(300NM) http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/ 1 mb = 1 hPa ... so it's 900mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 using my prowess in MS Paint, i've drawn up an idealized track of Bolaven during landfall based on JMA radar and track (it was exhibiting trochoidal wobbles during that time)... Bolaven made landfall near the town of Higashi... however, the three nearest stations (Motobu, Kunigami, and Higashi) along the track only report precipitation and not winds nor pressure... the nearest "complete" weather station was Nago and the eye did pass through it IIRC, it recorded a minimum pressure of 935hPa... as for the winds, AFAIK (maybe i missed some reports) there were no stations that reported typhoon sustained...the island of Yoron-jima (circled in red) reported winds of around 60kt i believe and gusts of up to 80kt... but i'm guessing it kept its Typhoon intensity (although undergoing ETT) up through Korea cause a station in Southwestern SK--Mokpo--reported sustained winds of 110kph before the station stopped reporting (and they were about 100km or 60mi east of the center)... interestingly JTWC (on one of their prognostic reasonings) said that the highest winds recorded in Okinawa were 90kt gusting to 120kt... i'm really not sure where they got that... NHK World on the evening of August 26 (Japan Time) said their data (which i'm guessing is taken from JMA) only got winds of around 100 to 110kph... another thing about winds is this recon mission from Taiwan which flew within 80nm of the eye... the nearest dropsonde was about 70 to 80nm away and recorded 90kt on 925hPa level and a surface wind speed of around 60kt... Wow-- thank you so much for all this info! The map was especially helpful. I really appreciate you sharing all this research in one place. These surface obs corroborate very well with what James Reynolds told me-- that he didn't experience winds over Cat 1. Regardless, it was a good chase for him-- he punched the eye, which was fairly small. He did a good job. Curious to see what he'll get with Sanba. Thanks again, Patrick, for compiling all these data! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Is Sanba experiencing some NW shear? It's getting that smushed look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 I don't know what is wrong, don't thinks it is NW shear, that is where the coldest tops are, but they eye looks like it might be open. Pro-mets input, as always, welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Same thing that crapped out Bolaven-dry air from the Asian mainland. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 I don't know what is wrong, don't thinks it is NW shear, that is where the coldest tops are, but they eye looks like it might be open. Pro-mets input, as always, welcome. The outflow to the NW looks pinched or restricted somehow. Same thing that crapped out Bolaven-dry air from the Asian mainland. Steve Ah, OK-- makes sense. I guess these there's a drawback to these huge, expansive circulations-- they suck in all the crap from hundreds of miles around. The latest IR image still shows a distinct, pinhole eye-- although the overall circulation looks a bit misshapen. Very curious to see the surface obs for this one when it passes over Okinawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Actually, from the microwave images, it looks like the shear is southerly in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Looks like an ERC is happening and a bigger eye is forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Wow-- thank you so much for all this info! The map was especially helpful. I really appreciate you sharing all this research in one place. These surface obs corroborate very well with what James Reynolds told me-- that he didn't experience winds over Cat 1. Regardless, it was a good chase for him-- he punched the eye, which was fairly small. He did a good job. Curious to see what he'll get with Sanba. Thanks again, Patrick, for compiling all these data! anytime! Looks like an ERC is happening and a bigger eye is forming. looks like that ERC may have completed based on latest MWI.. anyway, winds starting to increase slowly; some stations now seeing sustained of around 30-35kts with gusts of up to 50kts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 looks like that ERC may have completed based on latest MWI.. Yep. The latest IR images confirm it-- you can see the evolution frame by frame, and the latest one shows that big eye really popping out. The system actually looks healthier than it did earlier, despite the larger eye. Looks like Wilma when it hit FL. anyway, winds starting to increase slowly; some stations now seeing sustained of around 30-35kts with gusts of up to 50kts... Wow-- large wind field. Very WPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 The cyclone has definitely recovered-- looks much better now on the IR and MW, and the radar imagery is pretty hawt-- the eyewall looks solid. James is on Okinawa Island and very excited. The core should hit the island in the early morning hours, so hopefully he'll get some daytime major-hurricane core footage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 The cyclone has definitely recovered-- looks much better now on the IR and MW, and the radar imagery is pretty hawt-- the eyewall looks solid. James is on Okinawa Island and very excited. The core should hit the island in the early morning hours, so hopefully he'll get some daytime major-hurricane core footage! Pleasant surprise to wake up and see the eye has cleared nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Pleasant surprise to wake up and see the eye has cleared nicely. Agreed, not for those in okinawa though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Sustained TS winds on the island now. SPECI RODN 151257Z AUTO 07039G50KT 1 1/2SM R05/2200V4000FT +RA BR FEW001 BKN018 OVC024 26/26 A2939 RMK AO2 PK WND 06050/1255 BKN V SCT SLP951 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Sustained TS winds on the island now. SPECI RODN 151257Z AUTO 07039G50KT 1 1/2SM R05/2200V4000FT +RA BR FEW001 BKN018 OVC024 26/26 A2939 RMK AO2 PK WND 06050/1255 BKN V SCT SLP951 Servicemen better have their chips and BEvERages stocked already. We just have moved into TCCOR 1C.As a reminder TCCOR-1 CAUTION is sustained winds blowing at 34 to 49 knots and are expected to reach 50 knots or more within 12 hours. All outdoor activities, except those in direct support of urgent military missions, will be discontinued. The base exchange and commissary close and all non-mission-essential people should be off the streets and in their residences. All AAFES facilities close. Everyone stay safe and follow us to see the lastest information and updates. (LEB) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Successful completion of an EWRC. Don't see that everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Yep. The latest IR images confirm it-- you can see the evolution frame by frame, and the latest one shows that big eye really popping out. The system actually looks healthier than it did earlier, despite the larger eye. Looks like Wilma when it hit FL. Actually, the late-stage Wilma analogy is a pretty good one here. Whereas some dry air, an ERC and a little bit of shear weakened the core yesterday, Sanba really came back overnight. The fact that Sanba is entering a region of very favorable synoptically-forced upper-level divergence and probably enhanced upward motion in the right entrance region of a jet streak over Korea has lead to same re-intensification. This is fairly analogous to Wilma's strengthening prior to landfall in FL southeast of a jet streak over the SE US, where synoptically-forced divergence and omega overcame what otherwise would have been hostile vertical shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Successful completion of an EWRC. Don't see that everyday. Liking the CIMSS ADT trend. If there is anything to a strengthening storm mixing down gusts better, Okinawa is in for a show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Just looking at the obs for this station for Bolaven. Storm passed a decent ways NE of the station lowest pressure was 952.1 mb while winds were just over TS force. Strongest winds were on the backside with 62 mph sustained/82 mph gust max. Would appear a much better structure here with regards to seeing stronger winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Have a friend who's son is stationed at Kadena - naturally she is very worried and hitting me up for updates. So, I thank y'all for your comments as the storm approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Eye is large enough and warm enough on IR imagery, I'm suspect they might get an extended period of sunshine. If it doesn't wobble a tad more Westward. I might have been in the eye of Belle, but mu Dad didn't let me go outside, so I have never seen the eye of a TC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/index.html?areaCode=217 Should be in the eyewall soon. Sustained TS winds for about 5 hours, but nothing too terrible. Yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Eye is large enough and warm enough on IR imagery, I'm suspect they might get an extended period of sunshine. If it doesn't wobble a tad more Westward. I might have been in the eye of Belle, but mu Dad didn't let me go outside, so I have never seen the eye of a TC... Now a wobble East. Suspense is killing me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Nice eye. Shearand dry air quickly approaching the storm from the west though, so expolosive weakening is possible . http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17W/imagery/wv-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 There's some warming and some erosion on the W side, but overall, I think this is a really nice-looking storm. That eye is round and clear. I'd think this will be a solid Cat-3 landfall. Heck, I'd be thrilled to chase a subject like this. It's been a while. The inner core should be moving over the island pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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