aslkahuna Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Deja vu all over again-the satellite imagery and weather distribution over South Korea reminds very much of TS Lester 20 years ago as it headed into AZ. The storm is transitioning but still tropical. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Deja vu all over again-the satellite imagery and weather distribution over South Korea reminds very much of TS Lester 20 years ago as it headed into AZ. The storm is transitioning but still tropical. Steve indeed it is... 200,000 homes without power in SK last time i checked, along with four deaths... unfortunately it is now moving into North Korea so even scarier scenario for them there, and it looks like Tembin might make landfall there as well by Friday... speaking of Tembin, it brushed the southern part of Taiwan as a weak Typhoon (JTWC even downgraded it into a tropical storm before moving into Taiwan)... Lanyu Island reported maximum sustained wind of around 85mph with a gust of 135mph; along with minimum pressure of 966mb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 speaking of Tembin, it brushed the southern part of Taiwan as a weak Typhoon (JTWC even downgraded it into a tropical storm before moving into Taiwan)... Lanyu Island reported maximum sustained wind of around 85mph with a gust of 135mph; along with minimum pressure of 966mb! Just another horrible initial intensity by the JTWC. I feel for them sometimes since they only rarely have recon obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Re: Bolaven... I chatted with James Reynolds, who chased it. (He's one of my very best chaser buddies-- a great guy.) Anyhoo, bottom line is that Bolaven was just... weird. James did punch the core, and he said they didn't experience winds any higher than Cat 1-- despite a station in the eye reporting a whopping 935 mb! (Lolz, typical chinacane gradient issues. ) Of that collection of concentric, cinnamon-roll "eyewalls", James was in the second-most-inner one as the center came ashore (by light of day), then worked S and punched the eye to experience the backside of the inner eyewall (after sundown). This video shows both phases of his chase. He does gorgeous work. Like Jim Edds, he's a real videographer-- uses really good equipment and gets clean, beautiful shots: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 we now have Tropical Storm Sanba east of the Philippines... still weak, 35kt(JMA)/45kt(JTWC) but latest microwave shows good improvement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 11, 2012 Author Share Posted September 11, 2012 With that mw, it'll be at least cat 2 this time tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 With that mw, it'll be at least cat 2 this time tomorrow here it comes!! WPAC reminding how significant discrepancies can be... JTWC analyzing this at 65kt while JMA is analyzing it as a paltry 45kt TS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Kadena AFB is one adventure after another. Purty -80º clouds tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 12, 2012 Author Share Posted September 12, 2012 I took it to Cat 5 Saturday. Hopefully, it doesn't go through eleventy ERCs like Bolaven did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 There's no doubt that RI has started already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 just gorgeous looking... current ADT now at 6.4... also JMA catching up nicely with the intensities now at 85kt although i'm guessing their 06z analysis will be higher still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2012 Author Share Posted September 13, 2012 JTWC up to 115 kts. SATCON has it at 127 at 05z. Most recent ADT has 135. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Josh going to Okinawa? South Korea needs another Typhoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2012 Author Share Posted September 13, 2012 This is about the hottest outflow I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Some year we'll have one like this in the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Surprised there isn't more talk about Samba. This is, by far, the best looking TC of the year. ADT up to 7.4 (150 knots +) which should preform reasonably well in well developed eye signatures such at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 PGTW DT now at 7.5 JTWC will probably put this at 140 or 145kt by 18z... this will be our first Category 5 of 2012 and second super typhoon.. also the first "Violent" Typhoon of this year (classification used by JMA)... EDIT: btw, JTWC calling it an Annular Typhoon?? what does it mean?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2012 Author Share Posted September 13, 2012 PGTW DT now at 7.5 JTWC will probably put this at 140 or 145kt by 18z... this will be our first Category 5 of 2012 and second super typhoon.. also the first "Violent" Typhoon of this year (classification used by JMA)... EDIT: btw, JTWC calling it an Annular Typhoon?? what does it mean?? If they believe T7.5 (and why wouldn't they?), they'll call it 155kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Up to 150 knots and 911mbs. Still looks to be bombing out. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 180+mph peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2012 Author Share Posted September 13, 2012 Moat forming. Maybe 12 hours of strengthening left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Moat forming. Maybe 12 hours of strengthening left. awww... hope i'm not too cynical but if annular it should maintain at least Cat 4 to Okinawa right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 I was going to lopp the SSD products to see if it really is losing banding. SSD is having issues. BUt the eye "seems" small for an annular TC, and double checking Wiki, because I knew SST played a factor, it is over water at the upper limit (per Wiki, anyway, maybe the Great DR wrote it) of the SST range. But if it is annular, per Wiki, it is more resistant to ERCs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 I don't know enough to really pick out annular canes, Sanba doesn't quite look like the Luis and Dora pics I Googled. Adrian hot link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 I don't know enough to really pick out annular canes, Sanba doesn't quite look like the Luis and Dora pics I Googled. Adrian hot link. It's not annular. Dora wasn't that annular either. Needs to look a lot more like a donut than a cinniibun to be annular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2012 Author Share Posted September 13, 2012 Annular hurricanes/typhoons are not strong. Resilient to cool SSTs and shear, but not strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Annular hurricanes/typhoons are not strong. Resilient to cool SSTs and shear, but not strong They average Cat 3 intensity per the Kossin paper I Googled a few minutes ago. More than a smidge over 100 knots, IIRC. Knaff and Kossin paper. Accompanying this structure is a nearly constant intensity1 with an average of 107.6 kt (1 kt 5 0.514 m s21). ETA As Amped noted, it doesn't quite look annular enough to be annular anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 EDIT: btw, JTWC calling it an Annular Typhoon?? what does it mean?? awww... hope i'm not too cynical but if annular it should maintain at least Cat 4 to Okinawa right?? It's not annular. Dora wasn't that annular either. Needs to look a lot more like a donut than a cinniibun to be annular. Annular hurricanes/typhoons are not strong. Resilient to cool SSTs and shear, but not strong The storm is not annular. The distinctive characteristic that sets apart well organized (but not annular TCs) vs. well organized annular TCs is the lack of outer rain-bands that ultimately result in an EWRC. Most of the microwave passes that we have seen today show a very distinct rain-band that is starting to wrap up into an outer eyewall. See image below Compare with an annular storm (Isabel 2003). While annular storms do have on average have a lower mean wind than what Sanba has currently, I don't think that precludes Annular TCs from becoming Super-typhoons or reach Category 5 status (as Isabel clearly signifies). While Annular vs. Non-Annular storms can have similar satellite presentations (as we see today), you need to have microwave imagery to truly confirm the lack of rainbands surrounding the eyewall. From the given images above, Sanba is probably peaking at the present time and should be undergoing EWRC within the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 great explanation there! yes it does look like an OW forming now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 super typhoon sanba c i=7.5 pres=902.9mb v max=155okt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Given that much advertised Bolaven was quite a bit weaker than expected, despite a 935 hPa pressure, will the Okinawans take this one seriously if it does become a credible threat? Sanba is much tighter and compact and likely to remain stronger if it crosses the island. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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