am19psu Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 West Pac season is getting started. Well, technically, it started back in February with TD 01W, but it was lame. The first real threat is upcoming late this week, so it's time to get the thread started again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 Invest 96W is getting organized in the South China Sea and will likely become a tropical cyclone tomorrow or Thursday before possibly intensifying into a typhoon over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Awesome thread subtitle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 TCFA now up... what do you think for this year am19psu?? we've been kinda below normal for the past 2 years now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 TCFA now up... what do you think for this year am19psu?? we've been kinda below normal for the past 2 years now... Most stuff I am seeing is keeping the below normal trend. I don't have any skill in seasonal forecasting, but I would always forecast below normal preseason given the current PDO regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 TS Two has formed in the South China Sea. It's going to drift northwestward over the next few days before making landfall in Vietnam. The storm is not expected to reach typhoon strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 not liking the microcane-like signature?? it's up to 45kts now on JTWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Whoa this was unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 You should see the latest SSMIS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 You should see the latest SSMIS!! Man, shear turned from southerly to east-northeasterly fast. I guess it got its act together when it was shifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 About to get upgraded to TY now on 00z JTWC... not surprising considering the recent developments and the eye forming on VIS Sat Image... JMA holding on to 40kt though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 so sad only me and am19 get to read this thread i think... we have a typhoon people!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EquusStorm Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I often forget about the WestPac and wind up missing things like this. Shame, really, since interesting stuff goes on there quite often. Nice structure on that one; really getting its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 TY Pakhar is forecast to reach 80kt in 24 hours (JTWC) and then landfall in southern Vietnam with 65 kt winds NE of Ho Chi Minh City in 48 hours. March storms usually do not fare well in the SCS due to shear from the NE Monsoon but this one is pretty far south and so far has avoided that threat. The original disturbance tracked south of Zamboanga in Mindanao and across Borneo to get to where it's at now. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Not looking so good this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Not looking so good this AM Yep. That little break in the shear yesterday as it switched from southerly to northeasterly was all it needed to blow up, but now that shear has increased again, it's getting eaten alive. If you believe the Euro, overnight tonight (EDT), there will be another break in shear, so it'll be interesting to see if it picks back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 so sad only me and am19 get to read this thread i think... we have a typhoon people!! Call me a homer, but to get me to do more than browse WestPac TC threads, I need either a SS Cat 4 or 5, or a storm that threatens places I have been. Like Muifa. I'll upload juicy Cat 4 or Cat 5 typhoon images for posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I have a whole bunch of typhoon pixs in my pictures folders. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 it's probably going to continue weakening now... the microwave images are still pretty decent though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 What happened to it? lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 I shall try again-hit the wrong button and lost my reply. March storms in the SCS usually don't fare well because the shear and dry stable air from the NE monsoon is still present there. Pakhar was far enough south to escape this for a while but as it approached Vietnam a dry slot worked into the core and disrupted it plus after relaxing, the shear kicked back in. Though some rebuilding of the core has occurred, with landfall less than 24 hours out reintensification is going to be difficult. BTW, a clue-when off season storms in the SCS begin to move SW it's a sign that the NE monsoon is taking control of the situation. JTWC is conducting a contingency exercise so FNMOC is issuing the advisories. Position and track maps are available on the NRL site. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 I gotta say, that latest windsat 37ghz is still pretty good despite the present IR image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Ho Chi Minh gusted to 50kts last night... not sure if that was the highest though... it almost had an eye on the VIS when it made landfall, pretty interesting... anyway, i noticed the warnings from Norfolk are 10-min wind average... does anybody know why?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 TS 03W just south of Guam radar from Guam: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=gua&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Looking at PGUA radar, it is getting better organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 looks like Talas from last year... about 1 inch has fallen so far in Andersen AFB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 not quite there yet... JTWC puts it at 55kts, still expecting it to peak at around 75kts by Thu-Fri... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Sanvu approaching the Ogasawara Islands... JTWC put it at 80kts at 00z but has weakened since... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 25, 2012 Author Share Posted May 25, 2012 Going to be around 65 kts when it goes over Iwo To Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Iwo Jima (Iwo To) reporting 53G71KT the last hour... :popcorn:unfortunately, JMA doesn't seem to have radar coverage in these islands, despite them being an important astronomical site... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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