PatrickSumner Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Since we are just about seven days away from this storm system affecting the Central United States, I felt it was prudent to go ahead and start a thread. The computer models agree on a storm, but vary widely on the characteristics/specifics. The 12Z GFS would mean a widespread severe weather event for quite an expansive area, however the EURO would imply the severe threat would be more localized in nature. Nonetheless, the potential is certainly there for a decent storm system to plow into the Central United States as we turn the calendar and head into April. Below is the 500_vort_ht for hour 174... Let the discussion begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 I think a more general mid range topic in the main weather discussion may be more prudent here, judging by the rather wide range of verbatims by the event's time across the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 I think a more general mid range topic in the main weather discussion may be more prudent here, judging by the rather wide range of verbatims by the event's time across the models. If Hoosier agrees...I will let you create the topic. Just want to have somewhere to discuss this particular storm system. I see lot's of potential with this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 FWIW, 12z CMC would likely be an event across the Northern/Central Plains and then another powerful shortwave impulse moves in after and looks to trigger a threat further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 If Hoosier agrees...I will let you create the topic. Just want to have somewhere to discuss this particular storm system. I see lot's of potential with this one... I believe he's suggesting we talk about it in the March general discussion thread, which I'd tend to agree with. Not to mention we were going to try to stay away from thread titles like this for specific events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 I believe he's suggesting we talk about it in the March general discussion thread, which I'd tend to agree with. Not to mention we were going to try to stay away from thread titles like this for specific events... This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 not sure where to put this thread, but I'm thinking starting two different threads in the General weather discussion would be a good idea until the models show some agreement. Maybe one could be titled late March early April west of Chicago, the second one the same title but east of Chicago. The way I see it, there could be severe west of Chicago followed by snows, where east of Chicago will be dominated by frosty conditions with chances of snow, and the frosty conditions could get into the SE US as well. Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 What? This is 144+ hours out...it's way too precise to be linking specific weather conditions in zones based around one city at this range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 The way I see it, there could be severe west of Chicago followed by snows, where east of Chicago will be dominated by frosty conditions with chances of snow, and the frosty conditions could get into the SE US as well. Just a thought. oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 sorry guys just a thought, looks like the severe will stay west of Chicago, kind of wanted to keep severe discussion separate from the cold discussion as much as possible. Oh well I tried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 sorry guys just a thought, looks like the severe will stay west of Chicago, kind of wanted to keep severe discussion separate from the cold discussion as much as possible. Oh well I tried. Not according to several of the models/ensembles that have shown this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 ok I will buy that models and ensembles are not showing cold in the east, but I'm not sure I believe them, first off all the ECMWF shows the MJO strongly in Phase 7 at the end of March to early April, at the same time most models show a weak negative to neutral PNA which I think should put the western trough position off the US coast, this should allow the ridge to build over the Rockies IMO. At the same time it looks like the models want to take the NAO strongly negative creating some kind of blocking. To this amateur eye what am I missing??? That looks like a cold signal to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Outside of potential capping issues, the 00z GFS on Palm Sunday (120 hrs)... (For a large part of this board's coverage, although IL looks to be in the most dangerous position if something like that were to verify). Impressive dry punch at H7 here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 You've heard me say this before, so I'll say it again: watch the moisture quality/depth with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012 VALID 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE EWD EJECTION OF A SUBSTANTIAL CHUNK OF THE PERSISTENT NERN PACIFIC UPPER SYSTEM...SHIFTING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DAY 4 /SAT 3-31/ AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS DAY 5. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES PERSIST BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...EVEN MORESO THAN THE MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. WHILE THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL -- AND EVENTUALLY THE ERN/NERN U.S. -- WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS DEPICTED IN THESE TWO MODELS CAST CONSIDERABLE DOUBT AS TO EVEN ROUGH APPROXIMATIONS OF TIMING AND LOCATION. THE ECMWF APPEARS SUBSTANTIALLY MORE ROBUST WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL -- PARTICULARLY BEYOND DAY 4...WITH ITS MUCH SLOWER/NEGATIVELY-TILTED PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS WHICH SHIFTS A MUCH FLATTER SYSTEM QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S./GREAT LAKES REGION. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MODEL DIVERGENCE...WILL ONCE AGAIN FOREGO AN AREAL HIGHLIGHT THIS FORECAST. ..GOSS.. 03/28/2012 Raised a bit of an eyebrow at the bolded part. Although I agree with Jim that the potential veering of the LL winds and subsequent effects on the warm sectoral moisture depth should be watched here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Some offices are not impressed at all by Monday's set-up (Sunday into Tuesday). Defin of interest - the GFS has been underplaying instability this spring - I do believe. Will be curious once this thing is sampled a bit better. Here are the 500 mb maps for Monday - defin interesting. I believe the Springfield, MO office was concerned about the lack of rich moisture return. PAH has said there is only a small chance of severe. Will have to read what some other offices are thinking. Images from wright-weather.com - used with permission Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 12z Euro is definitely deeper with the trough than 00z, although not quite to the 12z GFS' level of amplitude, similar to the 06z GFS from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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