stormwarn Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Can Central Park break the record for the driest March? PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.06 4.25 1876 0.15 -0.09 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 0.57 3.44 -2.87 6.05 March Wettest Driest 2010 10.69 2006 0.80 1983 10.54 1885 0.90 1980 10.41 1966 0.94 1876 8.79 1910 1.02 1953 8.76 1981 1.19 2001 7.71 1915 1.25 1912 7.70 1995 1.26 1977 7.41 1927 1.33 1993 6.64 1894 1.35 1913 6.47 1986 1.46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Can Central Park break the record for the driest March? PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.06 4.25 1876 0.15 -0.09 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 0.57 3.44 -2.87 6.05 March Wettest Driest 2010 10.69 2006 0.80 1983 10.54 1885 0.90 1980 10.41 1966 0.94 1876 8.79 1910 1.02 1953 8.76 1981 1.19 2001 7.71 1915 1.25 1912 7.70 1995 1.26 1977 7.41 1927 1.33 1993 6.64 1894 1.35 1913 6.47 1986 1.46 Will be close. Models only have .10"-.20" of total precip through March 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Nice break from the wet streak we've been on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Big drought incoming through October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Can Central Park break the record for the driest March? PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.06 4.25 1876 0.15 -0.09 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 0.57 3.44 -2.87 6.05 March Wettest Driest 2010 10.69 2006 0.80 1983 10.54 1885 0.90 1980 10.41 1966 0.94 1876 8.79 1910 1.02 1953 8.76 1981 1.19 2001 7.71 1915 1.25 1912 7.70 1995 1.26 1977 7.41 1927 1.33 1993 6.64 1894 1.35 1913 6.47 1986 1.46 If not first, it could easily be second as long as the Saturday storm stays weak and/or is delayed. a drought could easily develop later on in the spring if the pattern stays this way with very few decent rain events, similar to what happened in the summer of 2010. The entire area and half of the region is already covered by D0 (abnormally dry) conditions on the drought monitor, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the next update (which I think is tomorrow) increases that area and the D1 drought area as well, which is currently limited to SE New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 We also could see some showers and maybe even with t-storm with cold front on Wednesday. Especially, if there is more instability. Forcing look good. Even with that, March still has decent chance of being driest, for Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Fire weather watch for tomorrow http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ075&warncounty=NYC047&firewxzone=NYZ075&local_place1=5+Miles+SW+Ridgewood+NY&product1=Fire+Weather+Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 March precipitation since 1870... 10yr ave.......precipitation...snowfall... 1870's....................4.13"..........4.2" 1880's....................3.32"..........5.9" 1890's....................3.60"..........8.2" 1900's....................3.92"..........5.2" 1910's....................4.03"..........7.9" 1920's....................3.45"..........2.8" 1930's....................4.13"..........3.0" 1940's....................3.63"..........5.2" 1950's....................4.21"..........6.2" 1960's....................3.43"..........6.1" 1970's....................4.27"..........2.3" 1980's....................4.95"..........3.0" 1990's....................4.52"..........5.7" 2000's....................3.90"..........3.5" 2010's....................5.82"..........0.3".....as of 3/26/2012 after this March NYC will be still averaging well above the average for the 2010's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 0.78 here this month... my 32 year record low for March is 1.09 in 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 if March 2012 ended today it would become the driest March on record and the 21st driest month on record...It probably will get some more rain but how much?... Top 20 driest months... 0.02" June 1949 0.14" October 1963 0.18" August 1995 0.21" September 1884 0.24" August 1964 0.25" January 1955 0.28" October 1924 0.29" September 1914 0.30" May 1903 0.34" May 1887 0.34" November 1976 0.41" September 1885 0.43" October 1879 0.44" July 1999 0.46" February 1895 0.48" September 2005 0.49" July 1910 0.51" July 1955 0.54" August 1916 0.55" February 1901 0.57" March 2012 as of 3/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 if March 2012 ended today it would become the driest March on record and the 20th driest month on record...It probably will get some more rain but how much?... I don't think we'll see that much rain this week. Most models are projecting 0.2" or less. I think we stand a good chance of setting the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 It's just about the driest I've ever seen it around here. So dry that the wind was whipping around a lot of dust in some of the open fields in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I don't think we'll see that much rain this week. Most models are projecting 0.2" or less. I think we stand a good chance of setting the record. the models did a good job...0.01" fell today in the park...0.58" now for the month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I don't think we'll see that much rain this week. Most models are projecting 0.2" or less. I think we stand a good chance of setting the record. Too early to see. The 0z NAM gives NYC close to .50" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 If NYC gets 0.32" of rainfall before the month ends it will not be the driest on record...The average temperature after today will be around 51.7...Tomorrow and Saturday could be cold enough to drop the average near 51.2...Just higher than the record 51.1 set in 1945...So there is an outside chance this cool damp spell to close out the month could prevent March 2012 from being the driest and warmest on record...TWT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 If the 9z SREF is correct, we'll see at least .25", before Sunday. These flat. overrunning events, at this of year, usually produce .25"-.75" precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 If NYC gets 0.32" of rainfall before the month ends it will not be the driest on record Correct...and of course it waits until the final day of the month to rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 It may not even rain could bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Both the GFS and NAM give us at least .5" so I doubt we end up with nothing It may not even rain could bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 All the 12z guidance gives us at least .50" of precip on Saturday to as much as 1". This includes the latest UKMET, GGEM, GFS, NAM, SREFS and GFS ensembles. And we are under 48 hours now; So the chances of it raining over .25" are very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 All the 12z guidance gives us at least .50" of precip on Saturday to as much as 1". This includes the latest UKMET, GGEM, GFS, NAM, SREFS and GFS ensembles. And we are under 48 hours now; So the chances of it raining over .25" are very high. That sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 All the 12z guidance gives us at least .50" of precip on Saturday to as much as 1". This includes the latest UKMET, GGEM, GFS, NAM, SREFS and GFS ensembles. And we are under 48 hours now; So the chances of it raining over .25" are very high. And then the euro comes in with less then .25" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 And then the euro comes in with less then .25" of precip. And that's a sign that the other models have not corrected enough south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 And that's a sign that the other models have not corrected enough south... Has nothing to do with that. The models are all similar with the low placement. The euro shears out the vort quicker then the rest, thus weaker precip. Euro is a clear outlier right now. The overwhelmning concensus is for .50"-.75" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Has nothing to do with that. The models are all similar with the low placement. The euro shears out the vort quicker then the rest, thus weaker precip. Euro is a clear outlier right now. The overwhelmning concensus is for .50"-.75" of precip. I would take under 0.50 for KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I would take under 0.50 for KNYC I think it willl be close to .50". Probably around .35". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Has nothing to do with that. The models are all similar with the low placement. The euro shears out the vort quicker then the rest, thus weaker precip. Euro is a clear outlier right now. The overwhelmning concensus is for .50"-.75" of precip. any other model as an outlier I would discount, but not the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 New srefs continue to have .50"-.75" of rain for NYC and a pretty snowy solution for north of Jersey and the Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 New srefs continue to have .50"-.75" of rain for NYC and a pretty snowy solution for north of Jersey and the Catskills. maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Euro is still extremely dry when compared to the entire model suite of 0z/6z: For NYC: Euro: .10" GFS: .30" NAM: 1.00" GGEM: .30" UKIE: .40" JMA: .30" SREF: .60" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.