Deck Pic Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Methodology: Analogs, Persistence Overall Temps: +2 Overall Precip: +1 June: +2 to +3 July: +1 August: +2 90 degree days for whole year: 50-55 Analogs: 1975, 1976 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Hot and humid eh, correlates well with my current thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Totally agree with this. I think BWI will have well above average temps and precip too this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Good chance at verifying. I'm thinking June ends up at or slightly below normal but warm the rest of the way. The only reason I think June is going to be normal to slightly below is because I think May is going to end up -1 to -2 or so and it will take some time to transition to a se ridge from hell. Of course I could easily be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 26, 2012 Author Share Posted March 26, 2012 Good chance at verifying. I'm thinking June ends up at or slightly below normal but warm the rest of the way. The only reason I think June is going to be normal to slightly below is because I think May is going to end up -1 to -2 or so and it will take some time to transition to a se ridge from hell. Of course I could easily be wrong. June was my strongest signal for warmth via analogs and persistence, but vs the new norms, it is truly a coin toss...last 40 summers, 19 over, 20 under and 1 push....and pretty much the same the last 20....i dont love persistence forecasting, but it does seem to work....June's tend to run warm or cold in bunches....I definitely favor the over, but even if it is 70-30, 1/3 ain't bad odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Both of those analog summers had one month with below-normal precip here. In '75 it was July, in '76 it was August. But even with those dry stretches, there was ample rainfall for the summers as a whole, which is my only concern regarding summer. We know it will be disgustingly hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 26, 2012 Author Share Posted March 26, 2012 Both of those analog summers had one month with below-normal precip here. In '75 it was July, in '76 it was August. But even with those dry stretches, there was ample rainfall for the summers as a whole, which is my only concern regarding summer. We know it will be disgustingly hot. 1976 was dry at DCA, but I weighted it a bit less across the board versus 1975, plus it seemed like more of a local anomaly....I dont put much stock in precip forecasts anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 2 above seems like the new normal. i do think philly north may be cooler depending on how late summer goes, I believe late summer will be cooler than the rest of summer on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 June was my strongest signal for warmth via analogs and persistence, but vs the new norms, it is truly a coin toss...last 40 summers, 19 over, 20 under and 1 push....and pretty much the same the last 20....i dont love persistence forecasting, but it does seem to work....June's tend to run warm or cold in bunches....I definitely favor the over, but even if it is 70-30, 1/3 ain't bad odds Interesting stats over the last 40 years. I didn't realize how even the odds are. Since 2003 there has only been 2 cool junes of any significance (03 & 09). Otherwise they've pretty much been 0 to +3 or so (using 1981-10 values). 2010 was the warmest of the bunch. From a persistance standpoint, going warm in june is def the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 26, 2012 Author Share Posted March 26, 2012 Interesting stats over the last 40 years. I didn't realize how even the odds are. Since 2003 there has only been 2 cool junes of any significance (03 & 09). Otherwise they've pretty much been 0 to +3 or so (using 1981-10 values). 2010 was the warmest of the bunch. From a persistance standpoint, going warm in june is def the way to go. 2004/2006 were below..2004 solidly so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 2004/2006 were below..2004 solidly so Yep, I missed 2004. The northern plains must have loved that june. Many areas went -6 for the month. One of my favorite analogs for this past winter was 99-00 and june of 00 was basically normal in these parts. The central and northern plains were really cool though and NE was below normal. Just for kicks, I'll bet you a cold beer that June will end up 0 to -1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 26, 2012 Author Share Posted March 26, 2012 Yep, I missed 2004. The northern plains must have loved that june. Many areas went -6 for the month. One of my favorite analogs for this past winter was 99-00 and june of 00 was basically normal in these parts. The central and northern plains were really cool though and NE was below normal. Just for kicks, I'll bet you a cold beer that June will end up 0 to -1. cool...I'll take the over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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