NeffsvilleWx Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 anyone else see this? DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES... ...MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES... SEVERE POTENTIAL THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE WILL GENERALLY BE TIED TO THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...FOCUSED ALONG/AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. SOME TIMING/SPATIAL UNCERTAINTIES CARRYOVER FROM THE DAY 2 PERIOD...WITH 00Z ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE GENERALLY FASTER THAN THE 00Z GFS. NEVERTHELESS...AS THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM TRENDS TOWARD A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT ON FRIDAY...AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WITHIN A DIURNALLY DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. THIS WILL BE THE CASE 1/ AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND 2/ ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA. DAMAGING WINDS /POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD/ AND SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM WHAT SHOULD MAINLY BE A MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. SOME SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO THREAT...COULD OCCUR PROVIDED SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH...A MORE ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 anyone else see this? Yes. I wouldn't get too jumpy unless the 30% holds true through tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Yes. I wouldn't get too jumpy unless the 30% holds true through tomorrow. yeah, i realize it's still a few days away. Still, not too common for the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I am in Enola (just northwest of harrisburg)... major flash flooding here right now.... had some scattered 1" hailstones a little while ago... bucket on my back deck is currently at 4" and rising.... my natural stream out back is currently a raging river... its coming down so hard i am having trouble getting pictures and video but will post anything i can when (if) it lets up you should have come around the corner to my house, you could have stood in my garage with us, having a beer and watching. Big time flash flooding in our area (Enola/Summerdale) A guy from the fire house walked over and showed me pictures he took, it looked like a river running down the streets. My rain gauge broke and i haven't replaced it yet, so i have no idea what the total was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Some nice lightening strikes yesterday. Other than that, it was just rain around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Some nice lightening strikes yesterday. Other than that, it was just rain around here. You didn't have any decent winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 12z NAM and GFS runs both make Friday evening interesting... the way they currently are SPC would have to pull that risk area northward... track of low and when the tilt occurs for both runs have central to east PA in the hotspot (in addition to tapping into a +1-2 standard deviation precipitable water anomaly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I need a new rain gauge myself. Any suggestions on which to get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I need a new rain gauge myself. Any suggestions on which to get? http://www.ambientweather.com/strgloteprra.html You really can't go wrong with the 4" CoCoRaHS gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 You didn't have any decent winds? Nope. The cells merged and dipped to the SW of me. Nothing but rain and lightening. My friend was on the I83 bridge when it hit and he said traffic slowed to 20 mph and his lifted truck was being blown violently into the next lane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Next week looks amazing with highs in the 50's and 60's throughout the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Next week looks amazing with highs in the 50's and 60's throughout the week. 50s? Where are you pulling that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 50s? Where are you pulling that from? Yeah I certainly don't see that anywhere. Most places south of I-80 and below 2000ft will probably hit 70° most days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Euro has 50's and 60's as highs from Monday to Wed (the last day you can see with Wunderground. 850's are in the 30's and 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 ...MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES... THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE WILL SEE THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL FOCUSED ALONG/AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE PARENT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TREND TOWARD A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT ON FRIDAY...WITH A STEADILY STRENGTHENING BELT OF DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES. ACCORDINGLY...AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WITHIN A DIURNALLY DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SUCH DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT OR PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. IT IS LIKELY THAT AMPLE PRE-FRONTAL INSOLATION WILL COINCIDE WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SUCH THAT A BROAD AREA OF 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE SEEMS LIKELY FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE DELMARVA/SOUTHERN PA...ALONG/SOUTH OF A NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA. THAT SAID...LOCALLY STRONGER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS/GA/NORTH FL ALBEIT WITHIN A WEAKER SHEAR REGIME. OVERALL...DAMAGING WINDS /POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD AT THAT/ AND SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM WHAT SHOULD MAINLY BE A MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THAT SAID...SOME SUPERCELLS...INCLUDING A TORNADO THREAT...COULD OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS VA/DELMARVA REGION INTO SOUTHERN PA/NJ PROVIDED 1/ SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND 2/ SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE A LINEAR MODE SHOULD BE MORE DOMINANT. SOMEWHAT HIGHER PROBABILITIES/PERHAPS EVEN A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK MIGHT BE WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS. Hazardous Weather Outlook HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 241 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2012 PAZ035-036-056-057-059-063>066-010645- FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK- LANCASTER- 241 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Dr Forbes posted his initial TORCON forecast for Friday: Friday, June 1 AL south - 2 DC - 4 DE - 4 FL panhandle - 2 GA east-central, south - 2 MD east - 4 MD central - 2 to 3 NC central, east - 2 NJ north - 2 NJ south - 3 PA southeast - 4 SC central, east - 2 VA north - 4 VA south-central, east - 2 to 3 Other areas - 1 or less a 4 or higher in PA does not happen often at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Timing going to be everything. A delay of a couple hours would bring the line through too late to capitalize on the day time heating/instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Quite an interesting couple days ahead. In contrast from what we've seen with the past few severe weather episodes, speed and directional shear look excellent. But i'm worried about how far north we can get this warm front to come. Whether it stays in Maryland, or moves up into southern PA will make a huge difference in the northward extent of severe storms. Hard to pinpoint right now, but something to keep an eye on in future model runs this evening. Here are the SREF plumes for instability at UNV... Cloud cover is another concern. I think we should see enough breaks in the clouds to destabilize southern PA enough (1000 J/kg CAPE?), but this is yet another thing to keep an eye on tonight and tomorrow morning. Some of the higher resolution models are suggesting that we could get some discrete cells forming ahead of the main line in the vicinity of the warm front. This could be enough for SPC to pull the trigger for a mod risk in northern VA, central MD, and southern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Horst's latest special weather disco: Noon Thursday, May 31: Textbook set up for severe storms tomorrow...from central PA southward through most of VA. Some tornadoes are possible. Developing.... He's usually pretty conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 http://www.ambientweather.com/strgloteprra.html You really can't go wrong with the 4" CoCoRaHS gauge. Dumb question, but can I just stick this in the ground? I didn't have anythung to mount to in a good place actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Latest from SPC: AN AREA OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 60-90M...WILL OVERSPREAD THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES TO A POSITION FROM LOWER MI...ARCING SEWD TO SC BY 02/00Z. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS UPPER DIFFLUENT TROUGH AND SHOULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES EWD. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM OH...SWD INTO NRN GA. WHILE STRONG SHEAR WILL COINCIDE WITH THIS ACTIVITY IN ALL LIKELIHOOD BROKEN LINEAR TSTM SEGMENTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY NON-SEVERE...OR PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE AT DAYBREAK. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE DUE TO MEAGER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD AID IN AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION BY 18Z AND SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WILL DEVELOP FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT MORE THAN SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR ORGANIZATION. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ROTATING UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...IT APPEARS A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE NOTED WITH ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...PRIMARILY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND WITH TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF PA. DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE COMMON WITH THE SQUALL LINE...ESPECIALLY IF MUCAPE CAN EXCEED 1500 J/KG AS NAM SUGGESTS. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN 30% SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL CONVECTION AND FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THAT COULD BE NOTED IF PRE-FRONTAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT MAY EVOLVE IF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY RESPOND PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SEVERE PROBS MAY BE INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO IN LATER OUTLOOKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 My biggest "concern" if you will, for the development of widespread severe weather in this situation would be how far we can get the warm sector into PA and how much sun we manage to see tomorrow. I'd say the the lower Sus Valley obviously would be my area to really keep an eye out tomorrow, as they likely get some decent sun to ramp up CAPE's/low level lapses and take advantage of an already dynamic set up. Further south underneath southeast PA in MD and northern VA seem like they will be even more under the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Dumb question, but can I just stick this in the ground? I didn't have anythung to mount to in a good place actually. Can you just pound a 2X4 or something into the ground and mount it on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Oh true, I can do that yeah. I'm sure I have a spare wood piece around here somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Oh true, I can do that yeah. I'm sure I have a spare wood piece around here somewhere. That's probably your best bet, as long as you can get it far enough away from buildings and trees. On a more directly weather-related note, my aunt in Snyder County recorded 11.4" of rain in May. That area seemed to cash in on every rain and thunderstorm opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Struggling to break up the clouds this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Yeah we'll not see the major severe stuff here methinks. Gotta get down on S MD /N VA I'd guess for that. The warm front doesn't look like it'll make iypt this far north, hurting our chances. We will see heavy rain and strong wind gusts though later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Yeah we'll not see the major severe stuff here methinks. Gotta get down on S MD /N VA I'd guess for that. The warm front doesn't look like it'll make iypt this far north, hurting our chances. We will see heavy rain and strong wind gusts though later. early this morning i thought we were golden. The sun seemed like it was going to be in control, but man did it cloud up quick. I think the temp has only gone up a couple degrees since around 6. The wind is increasing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I'm up three degrees since 7:15, yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 May end up being like Tuesday around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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