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Central PA Late Spring 2012


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Anyone see the instability and dynamics on the NAM for this week for north central pa really pumping out the good stuff would be a high end slight risk for Sunday if verified. very High sweat values moderate to near high cape level and even near 1.50 inch hail and and unusually high Showalter values.

state college http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_kunv.txt

Dubois http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_kduj.txt

They don't have Phillipsburg Like they do with the sref plumes but I imagine it is just as impressive there.

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We have had 1.57 inches over the last two days, not counting today.

UNV is at 5.56 for the month.

Quite the gradient! I have a wopping 1.66" :axe: Could really used the rain epecially after a dry April and March, heck its been dry since January here. Everything seems to miss us or dissipate once it reachs, which is the exact opposite of what happened last year lol.

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Have some T-storms starting to pop up in E OH/ W PA. , I wonder how long these last, I don't think CTP was expecting much action tonight.

Returns look pretty strong according to accuwx radar and if it holds together, might get lucky overnight. Seems to be moving in the right direction.

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Storms should begin to fire shortly. We're pretty unstable out there (mixed layer CAPE >3000 J/kg) with high dew points and decently steep lapse rates. Dry mid levels, wet bulb zero mark around 10,000 ft, and more than enough instability could produce a hail threat this afternoon, despite the lack of appreciable shear.

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Just issued...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LUZERNE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST

PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 130 PM EDT.

* AT 1247 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

MUHLENBERG...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

NANTICOKE BY 100 PM EDT...

PLYMOUTH...SLOCUM AND LARKSVILLE BY 102 PM EDT...

SUGAR NOTCH BY 108 PM EDT...

PRESTON BY 110 PM EDT...

FAIRVIEW HGTS AND MOUNTAIN TOP BY 114 PM EDT...

PENOBSCOT BY 116 PM EDT...

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Nice storm working west of Sunbury, could be the next in line to draw a warning. Core of low correlation coefficient values (top right) coninciding with very high reflectivies indicates pretty decent likelihood of hail. Cross section shows 50+ DBZ going way above the 0 and -20C levels as well.

Edit: its warned now.

post-1507-0-05048000-1338057406_thumb.pn

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At work, but on break. Today has been nice for true central PA. Ughhh dry as ever here, nothing last night was a miss with a batch of t-storms that tried to push through the area, and everything is a miss to the south. It is a good thing, the cold front coming up is likely to produce an appreciable amount of liquid.

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it appears that God hates Lancaster county...

post-7557-0-47938000-1338071072_thumb.pn

somebody must have been praying........:)

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

733 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL LANCASTER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

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somebody must have been praying........:)

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

733 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL LANCASTER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

Dissipated before reaching central Lancaster county. I think northeastern lanco got a decent storm though.

Did see some nice towering cumulus that direction. It was looking pretty ominous for about half an hour, and we got 15-20 drops of rain, but nothing else.

Maybe tomorrow's heat will bring something.

I have noticed that unless storms come from the west, we usually get missed. Not sure if that's common or not, haven't been keeping track long enough.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

152 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN ADAMS COUNTY...

SOUTH CENTRAL CUMBERLAND COUNTY...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

* AT 148 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHERN ADAMS AND

SOUTH CENTRAL CUMBERLAND COUNTIES IN THE VICINITY OF BENDERSVILLE

AND THE HEADWATERS OF CONWAGO CREEK.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

BENDERSVILLE.

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