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Central PA Late Spring 2012


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Couple of musings:

1.) A rare, potentially historic event unfolding over the interior Mid Atlantic over the next 36 hours. Regardless of what happens it will be an excellent learning opportunity.

2.) Since we are quite close to the start of the event it would be wise to not take the run-to-run variances of the global models too seriously. Unless there is a clear trend across the board, it would be best to focus on real time data.

3.) If you live below 800 - 1200ft elevation, I doubt you see any snow...this is an event best watched from web cams. Enjoy!

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Couple of musings:

1.) A rare, potentially historic event unfolding over the interior Mid Atlantic over the next 36 hours. Regardless of what happens it will be an excellent learning opportunity.

2.) Since we are quite close to the start of the event it would be wise to not take the run-to-run variances of the global models too seriously. Unless there is a clear trend across the board, it would be best to focus on real time data.

3.) If you live below 800 - 1200ft elevation, I doubt you see any snow...this is an event best watched from web cams. Enjoy!

no snow for me :cry:

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warnings were just posted

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-037-231000-

/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0002.120423T0200Z-120424T1600Z/

/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0003.120423T0200Z-120424T1600Z/

WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-

TIOGA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT...

ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...

JOHNSTOWN...SOMERSET...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO

420 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...A WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO

NOON EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY WET SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM

THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO

LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA

INCLUDING THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING NORTH TO

NORTHWEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN

14 AND 18 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST

PENNSYLVANIA AND PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST

SNOWFALL RATES OF OVER AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES WILL OCCUR LATE

TONIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FROM PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW

AND POOR VISIBILITY. THERE IS GREAT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD

TREE DAMAGE. THE FALLING TREES AND LIMBS WILL KNOCK DOWN UTILITY

LINES...LIKELY CAUSING WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY

ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANY POWER OUTAGES THAT OCCUR IN

RURAL LOCATIONS COULD BE LENGTHY.

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH

LATE TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTH NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO

25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH MONDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...30 TO 35 DEGREES.

* VISIBILITIES...BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES.

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Via PennMan: Snowing at 2000' in Central Tioga County and accumulating on the grass already (15 miles south of Mansfield). :stun:

I believe it, I have a few friends in Mansfield, and they say its coming down nicely. I think its coming in a little faster than modeled. IF its already accumulating, I def wouldn't be surprised to see many areas over a foot by tomorrow night.

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Probably not much of a big deal for UNV, but just west might be impacted pretty significantly.

ya I am a bit concerned there are some relatives staying at the camp I belong to NWS has 7-15 there in southwest center county southwest of state college near sandy ridge elevation is just over 2000 feet. hopefully power does not go out there no generator.already in the mid 30s there. wish I was there to see this I am thinking 8 inches there haha

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Just left my place in Gaines early this afternoon and it was 35 deg. at 1:00. My son said he saw flurries around lunchtime. We are at 2275' and I'll be calling two friends that live up there for reports of how much falls. Wished I could have stayed to see this unfold.

Nut

PS..we were oh so close to baggin our first thunderchicken yesterday. Had a pair come in and my son had his first bird strutting in front of him. Great experience all the same.

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Just heard I'm supposed to go to Altoona for a client meeting tomorrow. How are they like it to fare with this storm?

Be safe guys, this snow is going to bring down trees. Prepare for no power and major limb breakage.

Pending on how you go to get there be carefull in the higher elevations specially 7 mountains of 322 if they get in on the heavier deform banding I have seen be a winter wounder land up there and mostly rain many times when traveling through there.

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Temps look right on schedule with the 18z NAM. The Walker building is around 39. I'm surprised how much rain/snow mix the NAM is printing out, and that it starts before midnight!

StnID: kunv Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO

Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L%

============================================================================================================================

120422/1900Z 1 02011KT 44.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

120422/2000Z 2 02012KT 44.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

120422/2100Z 3 02012KT 43.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100

120422/2200Z 4 02012KT 42.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 0| 0|100

120422/2300Z 5 02014KT 40.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 0| 0|100

120423/0000Z 6 01015KT 39.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

120423/0100Z 7 01015KT 38.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 0| 0|100

120423/0200Z 8 36015KT 37.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30 0| 1| 99

120423/0300Z 9 36016KT 36.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38 4| 1| 95

[ Transition to rain/snow happens around 11 tonight?!]

120423/0400Z 10 36016KT 35.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 17| 2| 81

120423/0500Z 11 36015KT 33.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.57 67| 0| 33

120423/0600Z 12 35014KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.091 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67 70| 5| 25

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

120423/0700Z 13 35015KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.085 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75 66| 6| 28

120423/0800Z 14 34015KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.78 68| 0| 32

120423/0900Z 15 34014KT 33.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80 61| 0| 39

120423/1000Z 16 34014KT 33.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81 57| 0| 43

120423/1100Z 17 34014KT 33.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.82 67| 0| 33

120423/1200Z 18 34014KT 33.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.84 63| 0| 37

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

120423/1300Z 19 34014KT 33.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.87 67| 0| 33

120423/1400Z 20 33013KT 33.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.90 71| 0| 29

120423/1500Z 21 33011KT 33.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.94 76| 0| 24

120423/1600Z 22 32011KT 34.1F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.97 67| 0| 33

120423/1700Z 23 32011KT 35.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.00 56| 0| 44

120423/1800Z 24 31012KT 36.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.02 43| 0| 57

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

120423/1900Z 25 30013KT 37.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.03 38| 0| 62

120423/2000Z 26 30013KT 38.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.04 34| 0| 66

120423/2100Z 27 29013KT 37.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.05 33| 0| 67

120423/2200Z 28 29012KT 36.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.06 40| 0| 60

120423/2300Z 29 28012KT 35.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.08 51| 0| 49

120424/0000Z 30 27011KT 33.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.09 63| 0| 37

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

120424/0100Z 31 27011KT 33.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.10 70| 0| 30

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Pending on how you go to get there be carefull in the higher elevations specially 7 mountains of 322 if they get in on the heavier deform banding I have seen be a winter wounder land up there and mostly rain many times when traveling through there.

Thanks. I hoping it gets cancelled actually, have to much to do and I'll be back there for a board meeting Thursday-Saturday.
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