JamieOber Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 It will be very interesting to see if the Nittany Valley's elevation will play a role like it has in the past...being at 900-1400ft has definitely been an advantage over some of the other valleys in situations like this, such as 10/15/09. Even a few inches of slop could cause serious tree damage...lots of trees with basically full leaf-out already in the valley. Check out jmister's gif, and especially the last two frames. Note how the def band is closer to us. Wow. That is REALLY close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Check out jmister's gif, and especially the last two frames. Note how the def band is closer to us. Wow. That is REALLY close. I'd honestly rather be where you are right now than me. This thing is slowly sliding east on each model run, so I think that by the end of this, KPIT might be looking at only 1-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I've been pretty busy but I'll try to maybe scribble something up at some point, might be this evening though. This def is going to be a tough one for our lil area though, probably a wide range of accumulations. Right now I think AOO and UNV probably get the lower end of that 4-8 range (3-6ish), with AOO possibly being the one that sees more. Thanks! I am thinking that also but the new NAM bringing the deform band closer is intriguing to me. I'd honestly rather be where you are right now than me. This thing is slowly sliding east on each model run, so I think that by the end of this, KPIT might be looking at only 1-3 inches. The latest NAM really slammed you guys, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 3-6 inches for you guys would be a complete disaster. It's not like 3-6 where the leaves will fall off easy, they are new and or budding. Could look like a Severe T'Storm went through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Thanks! I am thinking that also but the new NAM bringing the deform band closer is intriguing to me. The latest NAM really slammed you guys, though. Jamie, how is leaf out down there? Most seem to budding trees with small leaves with just some full leaved trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 3-6 inches for you guys would be a complete disaster. It's not like 3-6 where the leaves will fall off easy, they are new and or budding. Could look like a Severe T'Storm went through. I know. That's how it looked back in Oct 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Thanks! I am thinking that also but the new NAM bringing the deform band closer is intriguing to me. The latest NAM really slammed you guys, though. Yeah, I see that...but it did shift east, and the GFS and Euro are even further east. NAM is on it's own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Euro is pretty good for CPA if I'm correct??? Further east than GFS, NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 The NAM puts the best snows over the Cleveland area...I think it's too far NW with the deformation axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Euro is pretty good for CPA if I'm correct??? Further east than GFS, NAM? Yeah, it was really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Euro is pretty good for CPA if I'm correct??? Further east than GFS, NAM? Yeah, it was really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 The Euro is what the State College NWS is latching on to, and frankly, I completely agree with them. The Euro has shown time and time again that, especially when it's been as consistent as it has been, it beats the GFS (and especially the NAM) more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Interesting to see them extend the watch out to State College...though warranted given the potential. I have the feeling we could end up seeing very little with Jamie getting 4" or so and way more just west in the mountains. We're still on the edge of the big time snow, and with such marginal temps it's going to be a tough one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Basically wherever the deform band sets up will get good snows....east and west will get significantly less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Anyone care to explain to me why HPC decided to shift everything to the west for snow probs? I mean the 8"+ and 12"+ have shifted well west. I just don't see it, especially with the Euro being as good as it is. I think the NAM is basicaly overdoing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Anyone care to explain to me why HPC decided to shift everything to the west for snow probs? I mean the 8"+ and 12"+ have shifted well west. I just don't see it, especially with the Euro being as good as it is. I think the NAM is basicaly overdoing it. Could it be due to the period it covers. Seems like it's split over Day 1/Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Could it be due to the period it covers. Seems like it's split over Day 1/Day 2 That may partially explain it, but it still leaves an aweful lot left to the west in Day 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 It'll come east..the HPC that is. Potter, I think you're pretty much good no matter at this point lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Could it be due to the period it covers. Seems like it's split over Day 1/Day 2 their placement looks fairly similar to where the euro puts the best snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Here is the most realistic snowfall accumulations to be expected. With I was getting snow :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Jamie, how is leaf out down there? Most seem to budding trees with small leaves with just some full leaved trees. Sorry, missed this. That's a good assessment. Some parts have more full trees than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Well...GFS looked weird lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Well...GFS looked weird lol. Gfs is worth nothing. That model sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Looks colder fwiw....also less precip. Develops storm later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Nothing to do with any models, but I think State College is still quite borderline and best action is west of them. I think the dryslot could get awfully close to the town. It may only be a matter of 20 or 30 miles from drizzle to moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 The trees in Johnstown have fully bloomed, disaster in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 The trees in Johnstown have fully bloomed, disaster in the making. Congrats on no power for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 Nothing to do with any models, but I think State College is still quite borderline and best action is west of them. I think the dryslot could get awfully close to the town. It may only be a matter of 20 or 30 miles from drizzle to moderate snow. Yea the immediate central PA counties off the Allegheny front is going to be highly variable amount wise and there's liable to be a sharp cutoff somewhere close. This is also the area that stands to see a major impact if even the low end of the 4-8 watch verifies given the foliage at the lower elevations and what will likely be snow of a concrete consistency. The Laurel's should do better since there is not nearly as much foliage and snow ratios are likely to be a just a bit fluffier with the couple degrees difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Nothing to do with any models, but I think State College is still quite borderline and best action is west of them. I think the dryslot could get awfully close to the town. It may only be a matter of 20 or 30 miles from drizzle to moderate snow. That's what I've been thinking. Also elevation here is only around 1100'...which makes it all the more difficult to get decent accum vs. places to our west at 2k'+. I feel like we get something measurable, but the amounts in the watch for here are pretty optimistic--perhaps CTP is going the "CYA" route since any significant accum could be a lot of trouble here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Yea the immediate central PA counties off the Allegheny front is going to be highly variable amount wise and there's liable to be a sharp cutoff somewhere close. This is also the area that stands to see a major impact if even the low end of the 4-8 watch verifies given the foliage at the lower elevations and what will likely be snow of a concrete consistency. The Laurel's should do better since there is not nearly as much foliage and snow ratios are likely to be a just a bit fluffier with the couple degrees difference. That's what I've been thinking. Also elevation here is only around 1100'...which makes it all the more difficult to get decent accum vs. places to our west at 2k'+. I feel like we get something measurable, but the amounts in the watch for here are pretty optimistic--perhaps CTP is going the "CYA" route since any significant accum could be a lot of trouble here. Yeah the elevation is one thing, but even spots at 1000ft would accmulate if they can get into the meaty stuff. I'm just not sure if that band can make it into the State College area given its longitude. Very tough call. If it could, I don't see much of a problem getting into the 4-8" zone, but you need the steadier stuff to really force dynamic cooling. They might be right on the edge...hopefully on the snowier side. Also, I wonder if NW winds will dry out some of the moisture later in the day? Those westerly slopes on the Allegheny front are going to get crushed. Just stuff to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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