Santa Clause Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Looks east, but temps hold the same lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 GFS headed east??? Kinda looks like it doesn't it. The southern piece of the energy looks to swing ahead a little faster on this run so far. Lets see how it ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 That might be the sexiest run yet, GFS really slows down perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 GFS headed east??? It's 18Z it is always east. This thing is coming west. The rain is still back in western pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Already got .64" of rain probably get an inch before round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 temp dropped almost 15 degrees in the past 20 minutes, skies went from mostly sunny to overcast, and wind has increased. I love fronts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Ummmmm yeah, I think I just, yeah I did! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Ummmmm yeah, I think I just, yeah I did! Ya, you may die. Shovel your roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 guys and gals. question here, maybe this has been covered in previous posts but call me late in the game here. when's the last time we had a storm come up the coast and actually steer its way into the poconos and up into upstate NY and southern/central ontario with this type of situation? because i know the models are still trending for that when looking at the latest run, but i don't remember the storm track usually going that way with this type of system. usually if anything it would make a bee-line for i-87 or i-91 and make its way towards montreal or quebec city, not head back to kingston ON or even Toronto; at least as i remember things over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Ya, you may die. Shovel your roof. I say bring it on I'l try not too . If I do, it would be the way I wanted to go lol Death by snow!!! woohooo....well that or snu-snu http://www.comedycentral.com/video-clips/gb853l/futurama-snu-snu-chamber http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3ru-hvq7wA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 guys and gals. question here, maybe this has been covered in previous posts but call me late in the game here. when's the last time we had a storm come up the coast and actually steer its way into the poconos and up into upstate NY and southern/central ontario with this type of situation? because i know the models are still trending for that when looking at the latest run, but i don't remember the storm track usually going that way with this type of system. usually if anything it would make a bee-line for i-87 or i-91 and make its way towards montreal or quebec city, not head back to kingston ON or even Toronto; at least as i remember things over the years. Jim, I agree, the track seems odd to steer this storm so abruptly inland. Some of the model runs today actually pushed precip all the way into Detroit, and I don't see that happening. I think the track parallel to the Hudson River Valley/I-87 is the most likely route for this storm. The 12Z Euro seems to take the parallel route to the river, although it's still a bit west. I had a post earlier today on this thread where I showed the 1928 storm as an analog, and it takes the I-87/91 Route exactly as you described. I'm fascinated watching how this all plays out. Cory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 GFS ensembles giving UNV 0.67 (mean) liquid equivalent snow with fairly decent agreement. Interesting 0z runs ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Ummmmm yeah, I think I just, yeah I did! whats up the low totals around my house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 0.8 yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Oh dear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 21z SREFs are slightly cooler at 850mb than the 15z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 0.65" Temp plummeted to 45.0° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 NAM is stronger and further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Goodbye western pa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 0.65" Temp plummeted to 45.0° falling fast here too, almost 3º/hr 53º, 0.3" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 down to 48 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 0.65" Temp plummeted to 45.0° 0.45" and down to 49.3 here. Goodbye western pa... Looks like quite the dry slot punching into SEPA and NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Ewww no 00Z NAM, go east darnit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 NAM is worthy of some "mother of god" comments. 2-3" on liquid over EPA with a signifigant period of sustained wind in the mid 20's.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Could someone post snowfall from the 12Z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 a little more aggressive with snow amounts in the new watch statement. PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-037-221200- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0002.120423T0200Z-120424T1600Z/ WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET- TIOGA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT... ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD... JOHNSTOWN...SOMERSET...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO 1035 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012 ...A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA... INCLUDING THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 INCHES OR MORE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA...WITH OVER ONE FOOT POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. * TIMING...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS WINTER STORM WATCH /ISSUED SAT AFTERNOON/ FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THERE IS VERY GOOD OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR THE COMBINATION OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOC TROUGH GOING NEGATIVE TILT...LLVL ADVECTION OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH TO NE...AND DYNAMIC COOLING VIA STRONG UPWARD MOTION JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CORE. THESE FACTORS WILL TEAM UP TO RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY WET/DESTRUCTIVE LATE SEASON SNOW NEAR...AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MEAN 700-500 MB LOW TRACK /WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE RIGHT UP THE SUSQ VALLEY OR A TAD TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY/. DID NOT EXTEND THE WATCH FURTHER TO THE EAST ATTM...AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ALOFT...LESS QPF...AND EAST OF WHERE OTHERS AND HPC HAS INDICATED CONCERN. LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE MTNS WEST OF INTERSTATE 99/RT 220 FROM BEDFORD COUNTY...NORTH THROUGH BLAIR...NORTHERN CENTER AND CLINTON COUNTY COULD EASILY GET IN ON THE HEAVY SNOW...AS THE TIGHTEST 925-850MB TEMP GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AIR IN THAT LAYER WILL BE SITUATED NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST. BANDS OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS/CSI ROTATING NWWD ACROSS ACROSS THE CWA COULD BRING SOME THUNDER SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS COULD EASILY BE 1-2 INCHES/HOUR AT TIMES. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD EXCEED 8 INCHES...WITH SOME 14-16 INCH AMOUNTS PAINTED IN. UNLESS THINGS CHANGE DRASTICALLY WITH THE NEXT MODEL RUN...EXPECT WINTER STORM WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED EITHER ON THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT OR DURING THE MORNING SUNDAY. FOR THE SUSQ VALLEY AND PTS EAST...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A CHILLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCAL 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 a little more aggressive with snow amounts in the new watch statement. Nothing to write home about, but on that map, some measurable snow even gets into far eastern Schuylkill County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 whats up the low totals around my house? Did you call into CTP late today to provide some advice? cause I believe they listened to you, hows 14.4" sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 how do the models keep bringing the low inland like they do? just puzzles me with that type of setup. but unless i see the trend otherwise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 how do the models keep bringing the low inland like they do? just puzzles me with that type of setup. but unless i see the trend otherwise... The Jets Phase...Your a Met, you should know this! =P ON SUN...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS SE ACROSS THE OH AND TN VLYS...WHILE THE SRN STREAM WAVES LIFTS NE ACROSS NRN FL AND OFF THE SE COAST. THESE TWO WAVES WILL THEN PHASE SUN NIGHT/MON AM...THEREBY ACCELERATING THE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN INLAND...NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH THE H7-H5 TRACK FROM THE INTERIOR MID ATLC REGION (CEN/NRN VA) NORTHWARD THROUGH CEN PA/NY. GIVEN THE INTENSIFICATION/AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AND EVENTUAL NEGATIVE TILT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SUN NIGHT AND MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRENGTHENING COUPLED JET DYNAMICS WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ASSCD FRONTOGENETICALLY-ENHANCED PCPN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CEN WV NORTH THROUGH WRN PA/WRN NY. COLD AIR AVAILABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MARGINAL AT BEST FOR WIDESPREAD...HEAVY SNOWFALL (LARGELY DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR)...AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE -3 TO -6C RANGE (OR CLOSE TO 2 STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL). MEANWHILE...MODELS BRING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 2000 FT MSL OR LOWER ACROSS WRN NY/PA...ERN OH...WV...AND ACROSS WRN MD/VA THROUGH THE DAY ON MON. NOT SURPRISING WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MODELS (BOTH NAM/GFS) CONTINUE TO SHOW NEGATIVE EPV'S WITHIN THE 800-600 MB LAYER AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER WRN PA...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY...CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES OVER THAT REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.