EasternUSWX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 NAM froze at 45hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 NAM froze at 45hrs Maybe the storm got so big on the model that it blew it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Maybe the storm got so big on the model that it blew it up. That is actually what happened. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 NAM froze at 45hrs 12Z GFS BEGAN ON TIME. BUT.. DUE TO A CCS NAM JOB FAILURE.. THE 48HR TO 84HR NAM PRODUCTS WILL BE ABOUT 30-35 MINS DELAYED.. IT APPEARS THAT A NODE ISSUE STOPPED THE PROCESSING OF THE NAM AT THAT POINT. THE NAM WAS RE-STARTED AND IS PROGRESSING. 12Z NAM RAOB RECAP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Found these surface maps (attached) courtesy of the NOAA Central Library Data Imaging Project. They show April 28-29, 1928. Interestingly, there is a sub 992 mb surface low over the Delmarva. Look familiar????? On April 29th, the storm, rather than retrograding through eastern PA, rides instead up the Hudson River Valley. A couple of 9Z SREF members prefer this outcome, and that track is certainly more favorable for snow in central PA. Remember the 1928 storm gave State College 17.2" and some locations in PA over 36"!!! Also, temperatures in 1928 look very similar to forecasted temperatures, i.e. above freezing for the most part. A couple more thoughts I have on this storm: 1) Snow will stick easier than one might think for this time of year. The ground is extremely dry and therefore has a very low specific heat capacity. Any rain that does fall will quickly cool the ground to the temperature of the rain itself (will not have to warm moisture in the ground). Plus, the grass is tall and growing... therefore lots of insulating air resides between the blades of the grass. I expect moderate to heavy snow to accumulate relatively easy on grassy areas. 2) There is a snow pack over southern Ontario and Quebec from the storm yesterday and last night. It may help, but I'm not sure our surface winds will be advecting from the heart of the snow pack. 3) Leaves are new and fresh and will cling to their trees unlike October leaves which are nearly dead and tend to fall off under weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 12Z GFS BEGAN ON TIME. BUT.. DUE TO A CCS NAM JOB FAILURE.. THE 48HR TO 84HR NAM PRODUCTS WILL BE ABOUT 30-35 MINS DELAYED.. IT APPEARS THAT A NODE ISSUE STOPPED THE PROCESSING OF THE NAM AT THAT POINT. THE NAM WAS RE-STARTED AND IS PROGRESSING. 12Z NAM RAOB RECAP... Probably be out when GFS starts then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 God western pa gets smoked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Found these surface maps (attached) courtesy of the NOAA Central Library Data Imaging Project. They show April 28-29, 1928. Interestingly, there is a sub 992 mb surface low over the Delmarva. Look familiar????? On April 29th, the storm, rather than retrograding through eastern PA, rides instead up the Hudson River Valley. A couple of 9Z SREF members prefer this outcome, and that track is certainly more favorable for snow in central PA. Remember the 1928 storm gave State College 17.2" and some locations in PA over 36"!!! Also, temperatures in 1928 look very similar to forecasted temperatures, i.e. above freezing for the most part. A couple more thoughts I have on this storm: 1) Snow will stick easier than one might think for this time of year. The ground is extremely dry and therefore has a very low specific heat capacity. Any rain that does fall will quickly cool the ground to the temperature of the rain itself (will not have to warm moisture in the ground). Plus, the grass is tall and growing... therefore lots of insulating air resides between the blades of the grass. I expect moderate to heavy snow to accumulate relatively easy on grassy areas. 2) There is a snow pack over southern Ontario and Quebec from the storm yesterday and last night. It may help, but I'm not sure our surface winds will be advecting from the heart of the snow pack. 3) Leaves are new and fresh and will cling to their trees unlike October leaves which are nearly dead and tend to fall off under weight. Cory? You mean you're not feverishly grading our last synoptics lab? Thanks for the thoughts.... interesting. -Brandon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Sucks this is Monday and I have class. I wanna go chase this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Brandon, Halfway done grading... Would have finished last night if it were not for this storm! Cory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Looking like a Bradford to Pittsburgh event. State College and Willpo could have urban flooding issues with that type of rain...should be smoking!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Models keep shearing the Southern branch energy. Wish we could get a full phase. Would be amazing to see snow down the spine of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 The as$hole that was scheduled to show up at 8 this morning to till up my side yard never did. So I have four scoops of mulch and $250 in groundcover and other plants (many special ordered) sitting here with no where to go and and 3-4" rain coming quickly. I hope this guy dies in a chemical fire while rats chew off his balls. Anyone wanna make $100-$200 quick bucks in cash, I'll pay you to till up a 60' x 5' side yard ... you just need to provide the equipment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 WOW.....GFS says big time rain for almost all(Potter is probably snow lucky dog), this is getting interesting. No flood watches probably, but it will be ripping no doubt. Goodbye drought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 GFS as well smashes western pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 This is too depressing. Surface low tracks right over the Chicken Capital's benchmark but there is no cold air source for us East of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 This is too depressing. Surface low tracks right over the Chicken Capital's benchmark but there is not could air source for us East of the Apps. We need the low to shift like 100 miles east to bring the deform band over central pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 WOW! Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Dang....Zac that's so close we can literally spit and hit the snow banks lol(tries not to get upset over April snowfall) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Dang....Zac that's so close we can literally spit and hit the snow banks lol(tries not to get upset over April snowfall) Still got some time for it to shift east again. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 I'm hoping, I have over 1400 elevation...but this thing is coming way west...too far west for this lack of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 IF that map verifies Zak, I will be chasing this to Bradford, might stay put if this storm shifts a tad to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 IF that map verifies Zak, I will be chasing this to Bradford, might stay put if this storm shifts a tad to the east. Don't you get like 10" on that map? Chasing would be a fail cause the power outages and falling trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Don't you get like 10" on that map? Chasing would be a fail cause the power outages and falling trees. Yeah. Oct storm was a mess up top of the ridges here. I know a couple die hard hunters that made the trip out n came close to getting knockef on the head by falling branches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Don't you get like 10" on that map? Chasing would be a fail cause the power outages and falling trees. Yeah. Oct storm was a mess up top of the ridges here. I know a couple die hard hunters that made the trip out n came close to getting knockef on the head by falling branches. Yeah actually that map gives me 12-13", I'm right on the extreme NW corner of Potter, but I may end up staying in Bradford because of the extra elevation, may help with rates and accumulation. I doubt I will be on the roads duing the storm, to much to worry about like you guys said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Yeah actually that map gives me 12-13", I'm right on the extreme NW corner of Potter, but I may end up staying in Bradford because of the extra elevation, may help with rates and accumulation. I doubt I will be on the roads duing the storm, to much to worry about like you guys said. Lucky bastard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Lucky bastard. I know! I really hope it happens, I haven't had a great storm all year, you guys got the October storm, I wasn't able to participate in that one lol. I promise to upload a ton of pics if I can. I'm sure it will make for a fantastic scene, especially with all the flowers, crab apple flowers now just starting to bloom, and all the leaves starting to bud! I'm honestly stoked to the max right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Lol...we all didn't get the October storm. Good luck bud, I think you're the only one with a shot at any accumulation out of this!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Lol...we all didn't get the October storm. Good luck bud, I think you're the only one with a shot at any accumulation out of this!!! Speak for yourself. 3 inches at my house (500ft) and a foot on the ridges behind my place (1000ft). So it pains me to say it but guess its C and W PA turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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