WilkesboroDude Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0344 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO THE VA/NC/SC PIEDMONT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 241603Z - 241800Z SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL SUPERCELLS EXPECTED WITHIN AN ARCING BAND OF SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS. PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH EVENTUAL THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE PROBABILITY OF A WW ISSUANCE IS 95 PERCENT. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS A SERIES OF WEAK CYCLONES ALONG A FRACTURED COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN VA INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS SWWD INTO CNTRL GA. AN ARCING BAND OF TCU/SMALL CBS RUNNING ALONG THIS AXIS SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-AFTERNOON GIVEN FURTHER HEATING AND AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT WITH ADVERTISING THIS SCENARIO. EVIDENCE OF BACKING MID-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN 12Z GSO/RNK RAOBS ALONG WITH CURRENT FCX/RAH VWP DATA. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE HODOGRAPH MAY LIMIT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INITIALLY. HOWEVER...WITH TIME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SWLY WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND RESULT IN STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. WITH MLCAPE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG...THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST. SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SWLYS AMIDST MORE BACKED NEAR-SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED FARTHER E ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SHOULD AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..GRAMS.. 03/24/2012 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 35278152 36158132 36888165 37368140 37598084 37548044 37077948 36207925 34607989 33868072 33668137 33688190 34068243 34428217 35278152 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0344 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO THE VA/NC/SC PIEDMONT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 241603Z - 241800Z SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL SUPERCELLS EXPECTED WITHIN AN ARCING BAND OF SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS. PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH EVENTUAL THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE PROBABILITY OF A WW ISSUANCE IS 95 PERCENT. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS A SERIES OF WEAK CYCLONES ALONG A FRACTURED COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN VA INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS SWWD INTO CNTRL GA. AN ARCING BAND OF TCU/SMALL CBS RUNNING ALONG THIS AXIS SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-AFTERNOON GIVEN FURTHER HEATING AND AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT WITH ADVERTISING THIS SCENARIO. EVIDENCE OF BACKING MID-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN 12Z GSO/RNK RAOBS ALONG WITH CURRENT FCX/RAH VWP DATA. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE HODOGRAPH MAY LIMIT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INITIALLY. HOWEVER...WITH TIME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SWLY WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND RESULT IN STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. WITH MLCAPE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG...THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST. SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SWLYS AMIDST MORE BACKED NEAR-SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED FARTHER E ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SHOULD AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..GRAMS.. 03/24/2012 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 35278152 36158132 36888165 37368140 37598084 37548044 37077948 36207925 34607989 33868072 33668137 33688190 34068243 34428217 35278152 Finally...Something potentially chaseable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued: URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 105 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL 800 PM EDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD WARMING AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AROUND 40KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 RUC has the LLJ wanting to ramp up in SC. Think I might drive east of charlotte to check things out around 4-6 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Gonna need a tornado warning on that cell east of Galax Va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Event unfolding within the FCX area, just inside the triple point, even a few cells taking on a hook sig... Expect this to translate as the afternoon rolls on into central NC. RAH more subdued for us here in the east, maybe some much needed rn inbound, best action through the remainder of the day should be bounded by 77-95. Did have some clearing here, but whatever is inbound should aid in stabilizing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Still no tornado warning the latest velocity scans were crap on nexrad so its hard to say but the radar presentation is close to classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Cell just south of Sparta NC getting pretty nasty as well looks like 2.5" hail almost certain in that storm...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Can't tell if it is just clutter, but I think we may have a pretty strong couplet emerging out of the murk on that sup in Southern VA. Edit: Yeah that looks rather suspicious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Just got changed from a severe thunderstorm watch to a tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Just got changed from a severe thunderstorm watch to a tornado watch. The cell moving into Va near Galax looks the part but so far this one and the cell to its NE seem to not quite be able to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTORNADO WATCH NUMBER 108 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 335 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHERN VIRGINIA EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL 1100 PM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF DANVILLE VIRGINIA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FAYETTEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 104...WW 105...WW 106...WW 107... DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN VA AND THE NC PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM SPREADS EAST AND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS ALREADY SUPPORTING SEVERE STORMS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WATCH AREA HAS BACKED TO MORE ELY COMPONENT APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO 1) SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER WRN NC/VA...AND 2) WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BCMG BETTER DEFINED FROM NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER SEWD TO THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. STORMS MOVING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION. STORMS TRACKING NEAR OR ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF TIME WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS...ALONG WITH SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030. ...CARBIN Edit: Tornado warning for the eastern cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Getting into quite a strong storm. Lots of lightning and just got through hailing with nickel to quarter sized stones falling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 GSP valid 4:06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 The storm approaching Westport NC is beginning to acquire some rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 I've had two separate bouts of hail so far. Nothing too impressive, though...just pea size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 wow getting interesting really quickly today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 That cell south of Goldsboro just popped a TVS sig thats headed close enough to chase if it holds up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 are any news stations streaming yet ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 I got a feeling that cell moving into the Piedmont Triad area is going to become a problem shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 The storm west of Newberry SC probably needs to be looked at again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 vis valid 430, note the clearing ahead of that line tracking east of 77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Strong mid level meso per velocity scans on the cell approaching the Triad. Rocky Mount, VA too, lead supercell really cranking, very tight couplet and impressive reflectivity display. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 A currently non-severe, but still very strong storm is about to enter Charlotte from the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 524 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN PATRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WESTERN HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA * UNTIL 600 PM EDT. * AT 517 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PENNS STORE...OR NEAR SPENCER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. A SECOND STORM ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS HEADED FOR FAIRYSTONE STATE PARK. BOTH OF THESE STORMS WERE PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL!!! * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PENNS STORE... SPENCER... FIELDALE... STANLEYTOWN... FIGSBORO... FAIRYSTONE STATE PARK AND PHILPOTT DAM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE RELAY YOUR SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 24, 2012 Author Share Posted March 24, 2012 Nasty Nasty Nasty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Cells in NC approaching areas of 150-200 m2/s2 effective SRH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 RAH 1742 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 RAH 1742 Hey man, you think those storms out west will hold together as they sweep east toward the triangle and down east? Seems like a relative min over the central part of the RAH area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Very strong storm here,just now got the power back on after 2 hours.Lightning literally hit 50 ft from the house,knocked out power to the whole road. Easily 50 mph with pea-nickel sized hail just beating the south side of the house. Intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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