April 2012 Forecast Contest, Temperatures

[RodneyS]

DCA: +3.3

NYC: +3.2

BOS: +3.0

[brad1551]

DCA: +1.9

NYC: +2.0

BOS: +1.8

[LakeEffectKing]

DCA +1.2

NYC +0.8

BOS +1.1

[tplbge]

DCA: +3.3

NYC: +2.9

BOS: +2.4

[PottercountyWXobserver]

DCA: +4.2

NYC: +2.9

BOS: +1.2

TOT: +8.3

I'm expecting a warm 2nd half, but backdoor fronts and an early trough over the East coast could prevent BOS from mini torching.

[CandymanColumbusGA]

DCA: +4.3

NYC: +2.2

BOS: +0.9

[blazess556]

DCA: +4.1

NYC: +2.0

BOS: +0.7

[Quakertown needs snow]

late.

DCA: +6.3

NYC: +5.2

BOS: +3.2

[Scotty Lightning]

I somehow missed this thread, but I will take it like a man and take the penalty.

DCA: 3.6

NYC: 4.0

BOS: 2.5

Total: 10.1

[nzucker]

DCA: +0.7

NYC: +1.1

BOS: +1.4

[Roger Smith]

So far, after 5 days ...

DCA +4.8

NYC +2.4

BOS +3.5

[Roger Smith]

After 10 days the departures were +3.6 (DCA), +2.3 (NYC) and +2.9 (BOS) but these will drop as daily anomalies for the 11th were reported at -7, -4 and (est) -1.

The lag between contests and scoring needs to be addressed, methinks.

[Mallow]

After 10 days the departures were +3.6 (DCA), +2.3 (NYC) and +2.9 (BOS) but these will drop as daily anomalies for the 11th were reported at -7, -4 and (est) -1.

The lag between contests and scoring needs to be addressed, methinks.

I apologize, everyone.

I wanted to update my spreadsheet to make it as easy to update as possible, but I haven't gotten around to it yet. Thanks, Roger, for doing a sort of "in the meantime" version of the scoring. I will get around to scoring all three months before the end of April, and April's results will therefore come out as soon as the month is over.

[Roger Smith]

No worries, looking forward to seeing how the methods compare. I won't keep updating my system after we get back on track.

[Roger Smith]

With another warm spell looming, these are the most moderate anomalies I have reported all year, methinks ...

DCA +2.1

NYC +1.6

BOS +2.8

(after 12 days)

[Roger Smith]

Torch-like warmth returning, anomalies through 16 days have increased to:

DCA +4.0

NYC +4.2

BOS +5.8

Since Jan 1 (and even Dec 1) the anomalies are about +6 to +7 on average.

[Quixotic1]

Arrgh. Persistence trumps modeling once again.

[Roger Smith]

UPDATE for 18 days ...

DCA +4.2

NYC +4.7

BOS +6.8

[Roger Smith]

After 21 days ...

DCA +4.5

NYC +5.0

BOS +7.5

Please cover your torch as it may offend the rain gods.

[Roger Smith]

After 23 days, some reduction already, the numbers in brackets show the end of month anomalies if -5 average is sustained today to end of month (30th) ... and this is my prediction although it could be colder still.

DCA .. +3.2 (+1.3)

NYC .. +4.0 (+1.9)

BOS .. +7.1 (+4.3)

The 7-day anomalies (today to 30th) required for a zero finish are DCA -10.6, NYC -13.1 and BOS -23.3

For a BOS +2 finish the anomaly required is -14.7

[Roger Smith]

After 25 days, with an estimate on BOS due to msg data 25th (corrected in edit from data)

DCA +2.6

NYC +3.2

BOS +6.5

see previous post, comments still valid on end of month

[Ellinwood]

Torch cancel.

[Roger Smith]

After 26 days and with BOS back up ...

DCA +2.5

NYC +3.0

BOS +6.4

what's needed for a +1,+1.5,+4 finish would be four days that average -9 so that would seem to be the lower limit for out-turn.

most likely around +1.5, +2.0, +4.7 if you're estimating your results.

[Roger Smith]

After 29 days, further declines to

DCA +1.7

NYC +1.9

BOS +5.4

would look for about 0.3 lower on each of these in the final report tomorrow.

[Mr Torchey]

oh baby oh baby

[Roger Smith]

The final values reported are:

DCA +1.5

NYC +1.8

BOS +5.0

The libations must have worked !!

[Roger Smith]

This is a continuation of the provisional scoring system to give you some idea how your April forecasts scored and where you stand in the annual contest. I expect Mallow will be posting the official results soon. April scores for three cities and totals, with late penalties estimated * for blazes, Quakertown, SD and NZ.

Scores are ranked however by annual total (last column, rank in brackets) for all participants regardless of months played. I made a brief attempt to match up new names from April with old ones in the March table for name changes but may have missed here, let me know. All I did there was to scan the March contest for any of the new names to see if I could work out who used to be whom. I was unable to find any name changes, but perhaps some have started new accounts.

Forecaster ......... DCA ... NYC ... BOS ... Total .... JAN .... FEB ....MAR.... ANNUAL (rank)

_________________________________________________________

Actual ................. 1.5 .... 1.8 .... 5.0

hockeyinc ........... 34 ..... 28 ..... 80 ..... 142 ......... 188 ..... 286 ..... 252 ... ... 868 (1)

Litchfieldlib'ns .......92 ..... 90 ..... 98 ..... 280 ......... 226 ..... 140 ..... 142 ... ... 788 (2)

Derek Z .............. 48 ..... 58 ..... 74 ..... 180 ......... 188 ..... 192 ..... 215 ... ... 775 (3)

goobagooba ....... 92 ..... 84 ..... 06 ..... 182 ......... 210 ..... 180 ..... 186 ... ... 758 (4)

MidloSnowMaker.. 92 ..... 82 ..... 20 ..... 194 ......... 194 ..... 184 ..... 170 ... ... 742 (5)

nzucker .............. 84 ..... 84 ..... 28 ..... 140* ........ 162 ..... 177 ..... 215 ... ... 694 (6)

Uncle W ............. 60 ..... 56 ..... 90 ..... 206 ......... 278 ..... 002 ..... 201 ... ... 687 (7)

Inudaw .............. 62 ..... 52 ..... 94 ..... 208 ......... 240 ..... 066 ..... 145 ... ... 659 (8)

debeaches ......... 20 ..... 04 ..... 00 ..... 024 ......... 222 ..... 212 ..... 200 ... ... 658 (9)

DonSutherland1.. 100 .... 94 ..... 24 ..... 218 ......... 194 ..... 174 ..... 063 ... ... 649 (10)

Mallow ............... 66 ..... 80 ..... 40 ..... 186 ......... 096 ..... 132 ..... 231 ... ... 645 (11)

ChicagoWX ......... 74 ..... 84 ..... 54 ..... 212 ......... 212 ..... 082 ..... 134 ... ... 640 (12)

Ellinwood ............ 84 ..... 94 ..... 36 ..... 214 ......... 184 ..... 060 ..... 136 ... ... 594 (13)

forkyfork ............. --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ........... 244 ..... 122 ..... 224 ... ... 590 (14)

Candyman CSG .... 44 ..... 92 ..... 18 ..... 154 ......... 184 ..... 064 ..... 181 ... ... 583 (15)

MN Transplant .... 84 ..... 96 ..... 40 ..... 220 ......... 166 ..... 110 ..... 077 ... ... 573 (16)

hudsonvalley21... 64 ..... 76 ..... 02 ..... 142 ......... 200 ..... 058 ..... 152 ... ... 552 (17)

Consensus ......... 55 ..... 65 ..... 30 ..... 150 ......... 160 ..... 074 ..... 145 ... ... 529

LakeEffectKing.... 94 ..... 80 ..... 22 ..... 196 ......... 158 ..... 056 ..... 118 ... ... 528 (18)

Roger Smith ....... 68 ..... 64 ..... 02 ..... 134 ......... 218 ..... 000 ..... 170 ... ... 522 (19)

Bkviking .............. 86 .... 100 ..... 36 ..... 222 ......... 170 ..... 042 ..... 085 ... ... 519 (20)

Tom ................. 72 ..... 92 ..... 22 ..... 186 ......... 162 ..... 020 ..... 126 ... ... 496

CT Blizz .............. 40 ..... 56 ..... 60 ..... 156 ......... 148 ..... 000 ..... 173 ... ... 477

RodneyS ........... 64 ..... 72 ..... 60 ..... 196 ......... 012 ..... 090 ..... 139 ... ... 437

Qvectorman ...... 70 ..... 56 ..... 60 ..... 186 ......... 078 ..... 032 ..... 120 ... ... 416

Pottercounty ..... 46 ..... 78 ..... 24 ..... 148 .......... 064 ..... 000 ..... 200 ... ... 412

Quakertown nesn..04 ..... 32 ..... 64 ..... 070* ........ 172 ..... 056 ..... 112 ... ... 410

timp .................. --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- .......... 176 ..... 092 ..... 140 ... ... 408

Brad1551 ............ 92 ..... 96 ..... 36 ..... 224 ......... -- -- ..... 072 ..... 098 ... ... 394

frivolousz21 ........ 44 ..... 88 ..... 22 ..... 154 ......... 210 ..... -- -- ..... -- -- ... ... 364

Blizzard92 ........... ---..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- .......... 192 ..... 170 ..... -- -- ... ... 362

cpick79 .............. 90 ..... 44 ..... 00 ..... 134 ........ -- -- ..... 224 ..... -- -- ... ... 358

SD .................... 58 ..... 56 ..... 50 ..... 100* ....... 104 ..... 042 ..... 086 ... ... 330

blazess556 ......... 48 ..... 96 ..... 14 ..... 134* ........ 041 ..... 047 ..... 103 ... ... 325

Snow88 ............ 78 ..... 80 ..... 20 ..... 178 ......... 016 ..... 000 .....130 ... ... 324

Feb ................... --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 050 ..... 000 ..... 205 ... ... 255

HeatMiser .......... --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- .......... 056 ..... 000 ..... 197 ... ... 253

tplbge ............... 64 ..... 78 .... 48 ..... 190 ......... -- -- ..... 058 ..... -- -- ... ... 248

weathafella ........ --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 226 ..... -- -- ..... -- -- ... ... 226

NOVAforecaster .. --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... -- -- ..... ---- ..... 223... ... 223

brian5671 .......... 74 ..... 72 ..... 70 ..... 216 ........ -- -- ..... -- -- ..... -- -- ... ... 216

blizzardof09 ........ --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 212 ..... -- -- ..... -- -- ... ... 212

PSUHazletonwx.... --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 212 ..... -- -- ..... -- -- ... ... 212

Ian ..................... --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 148 ..... 060 ..... -- -- ... ... 208

ctsnowstorm628.. 88 ..... 82 ..... 38 ..... 208 ....... -- -- ..... -- -- ..... -- -- ... ... 208

SACRUS ............ 94 ..... 92 ..... 16 ..... 202 ........ -- -- ..... -- -- ..... -- -- ... ... 202

jetski 09 ............. 76 ..... 52 .... 70 ..... 198 ......... -- -- ..... -- -- ..... -- -- ... ... 198

alpha5 ............... --- ...... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 184 ..... -- -- ..... -- -- ... ... 184

snowlover76 ...... 76 ..... 78 ..... 26 ..... 180 ........ -- -- ..... -- -- ..... -- -- ... ... 180

Kevin Druff ......... --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 162 ..... 000 ..... -- -- ... ... 162

MariettaWX ....... --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 076 ..... 054 ..... 016 ... ... 146

NORMAL ........... 70 ..... 64 ..... 00 ..... 134 ......... 012 ..... 000 ..... 000 ... ... 146

showmethesnow.. --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 136 ..... -- -- ..... -- -- ... ...136

BethesdaWX ...... --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 129 ..... 000 ..... -- -- ... ... 129

H20town_WX ..... --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 120 ..... -- -- ..... -- -- ... ... 120

carley5 .............. --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... -- -- ..... -- -- ..... 110 ... ... 110

GD0815 ............ --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... -- -- ..... 072 ..... -- -- ... ... 072

StatenWx ........... --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 060 ..... -- -- ..... -- -- ... ... 060

RunawayIceberg. --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 040 ..... -- -- ..... -- -- ... ... 040

skierinvermont ... --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 027 ..... -- -- ..... -- -- ... ... 027

okie333 ............. --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... 000 ..... 000 ..... -- -- ... ... 000

weatherjedi ........ --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- ......... -- -- ..... 000 ..... 000 ... ... 000

Beastfromeast .... --- ..... --- ..... --- ..... ---- .......... -- -- ..... -- -- ..... 000 ... ... 000

[Mallow]

Compiled:

[Mallow]

Scores:

Congrats, litchfieldlibations! I'll have the consensus and normals added in later.

[Ellinwood]

You forgot me