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Spring "Freeze out"


BowMeHunter

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Seems to me the NOA is heading into very (-) teritorory near months end. Infact it looks to be the lowest for the entire winter. I hope this is not trend for near normal temps. If so the ecologicial balance will be a mess this summer.

Even if the blossoms don't get dammaged by the frost in the upcomming weeks the lack of bees will prevent any cross pollination. What a mess.

You can have warmth and "heat" with a -NAO.

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I still find it incredible that there are freeze watches in effect for places because overnight low temperatures are expected to only be a few degrees ABOVE NORMAL!

unreal

Houghton Lake:

forecast low - 25

normal low - 23

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12z NAM predicting mid 30s here tonight with dewpoints in the mid 20s. Low 30s for early Tuesday morning with dewpoints in the mid 20s.

Lots of freeze watches going up east and southeast of here.

temp23.gif

Cold enough for those showers in NE IA & the bluff country of WI for a mix tomorrow.

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It has been colder up this way in April. So yeah it is possible. Coldest ever April temp at Lansing for instance is -6. Latest 0 degree reading is April 18th i do believe. ;)

Down that way it could be different? I have not looked that closely at climo records there so not sure.

Not saying we will get that cold. Just saying it has been even colder before and thus it is possible.

Coldest April temp at Detroit is 8F on April 18, 1875. The only other April temps below 10 was 9F on April 4, 1874. Coldest temp post-1900 was 10F on April 7, 1982.

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I think we are getting a little ahead of ourselves here (for the 240+ stuff). Wasn't it just a few weeks ago that the models were showing a blossom-roasting freeze after that initial warm-up? The ensembles are all over the place, and the EC isn't really biting. Also, even if the GFS were to come pretty close, the ridiculous expanse of snow cover-free area would serve to moderate that airmass significantly this time of year.

My WAG is that we'll see a glancing blow, but not anywhere near a 2007-esque plunge. The trend this year has been transient and/or glancing blows.

I dont remember that at all. I just look at the 16-day GFS very passively, but one thing that stuck out to me was the lasting warmth and complete lack of sub-540 thicknesses. Actually, for a while it showed continuing torch for tomorrow/Tues when we will see highs/lows in the 40s/20s.

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Can't you just let us "ice P******" have one last gasp of fun!?!?!? You have had an extended period of fun with this craptastic winter and have 6 f-in months of fun coming up now.

Jezus you don't kick a dog when its down.. :(

I agree there is nothing wrong with this thread. Its the same type of deal as the greenup thread. Dont worry though, IceP**** revenge may come in summer. Looking like a cool summer is a good possibility, which would cue a bunch of due trolling from the icep***** :) Sure summer will have hot days, just as winter had cold/snowy days.....but if days in the 70s overwhelm the JJA period it would be pure icep**** bliss!

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Transient and modified.

from the 18z GFS last night yes :lol:. The GFS continuous showing of below zero 850s digging pretty far south at the end of the run for a few days now makes me think somethings coming up down the road. Time period is in question though, as it always seems too soon when the model first hints at it, but it could be a sign change lies ahead. It was showing continuous torch several days ago before it latched onto the cold idea, so a lot remains to be seen. But tomorrow a hard freeze is imminent, so we will see what this will do to agricultural interests. It will only be like 3-5 degrees below normal here, a good 10 degrees warmer than lows last year the last week of March, and 20+ degrees warmer than record lows, but if it was a month later (which is where the foliage is currently) it would be close to record cold.

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I dont remember that at all. I just look at the 16-day GFS very passively, but one thing that stuck out to me was the lasting warmth and complete lack of sub-540 thicknesses. Actually, for a while it showed continuing torch for tomorrow/Tues when we will see highs/lows in the 40s/20s.

It pretty much showed this weekend as very cold. Well it's in the mid 60s.

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It seems that the past two weeks of warmth make the upcoming normal (maybe slightly below normal) late March/April weather seem colder. This "cold" air looks to be short lived followed by a warm up, with another shot of "cold" air followed by yet another warm up. It won't be 30 degrees above or below normal. It will be normal which will feel cold and could have some devastating effects as a result of the warm weather but in reality nothing that is coming up is extreme for the climo.

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freeze warning tonight for central and northern michigan, supposed to get down to 30, but tomorrow night will be worse down to 25 or so... I'm wondering how much damage this is going to do especially for nothern michigan's cherries... the lake warmth usually saves them from the freeze but being so early this year it may not...

edit: anybody know if this is the earliest issued freeze warning ever? I'm thinking it should be with the incredible early unseasonal heat wave we've had.

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freeze warning tonight for central and northern michigan, supposed to get down to 30, but tomorrow night will be worse down to 25 or so... I'm wondering how much damage this is going to do especially for nothern michigan's cherries... the lake warmth usually saves them from the freeze but being so early this year it may not...

edit: anybody know if this is the earliest issued freeze warning ever? I'm thinking it should be with the incredible early unseasonal heat wave we've had.

If there is cold air going over warm water during the day would that raise dew points near the lake? Then would the dew points stay high that night and keep it warmer? I though it was warmer near the lakes at night because of higher dew points instead of the actual flow itself during the night.

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freeze warning tonight for central and northern michigan, supposed to get down to 30, but tomorrow night will be worse down to 25 or so... I'm wondering how much damage this is going to do especially for nothern michigan's cherries... the lake warmth usually saves them from the freeze but being so early this year it may not...

edit: anybody know if this is the earliest issued freeze warning ever? I'm thinking it should be with the incredible early unseasonal heat wave we've had.

It is because we never issue Frost/Freeze headlines earlier than the third or fourth week of April (climatology being what it is). Normally we wait until May...but this year's unusual weather kind of forced our hand as it relates to the major agricultural concerns (if Joe Public wanted to put their petunias out early...then they're just asking for trouble). We are only issuing Freeze Warnings...and we dropped our criteria locally from 32 to 28 (more closely aligned to the true definition of a hard freeze).

If it turns out that we have a significant freeze over the next couple of nights...or we just get into a period where we are issuing these things every night for a week (i.e., climatology)...we will probably suspend the headlines until later in the spring.

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If there is cold air going over warm water during the day would that raise dew points near the lake? Then would the dew points stay high that night and keep it warmer? I though it was warmer near the lakes at night because of higher dew points instead of the actual flow itself during the night.

Right now on the west side of Lake Michigan the dewpoints are lower near the lake then inland. But the front moved in from the east northeast, so that's not surprising. I don't know if the lake really raises dewpoints, but their is more air movement over the open expanse of the lakes. The air movement and mixing helps keep temperatures up.

Edit: The sheltered low lying areas are the most at risk for the coldest temperatures and hard freezes.

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I know, right!!!! It doesnt matter if it warms to 60F in the day, nighttime temps that fall below 28F would be disaster to the month-early vegetation (id prefer a 30-32F spring snowstorm :)

I'm rooting for your spring snowstorm, I think there is a chance around easter of a snowstorm and by then the leaves should be mostly on... will be a fun time to watch.

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I know, right!!!! It doesnt matter if it warms to 60F in the day, nighttime temps that fall below 28F would be disaster to the month-early vegetation (id prefer a 30-32F spring snowstorm :)

At least with a wet snow on the ground, would help protect ground plants. The trees wouldn't fair very well though!

Agreed, one hard freeze for an hour or two is all that takes.

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