SpartyOn Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Seems to me the NOA is heading into very (-) teritorory near months end. Infact it looks to be the lowest for the entire winter. I hope this is not trend for near normal temps. If so the ecologicial balance will be a mess this summer. Even if the blossoms don't get dammaged by the frost in the upcomming weeks the lack of bees will prevent any cross pollination. What a mess. You can have warmth and "heat" with a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 I still find it incredible that there are freeze watches in effect for places because overnight low temperatures are expected to only be a few degrees ABOVE NORMAL! unreal Houghton Lake: forecast low - 25 normal low - 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 6z GFS is not nearly as cold in the extended...hangs the cold back in the Dakotas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 12z NAM predicting mid 30s here tonight with dewpoints in the mid 20s. Low 30s for early Tuesday morning with dewpoints in the mid 20s. Lots of freeze watches going up east and southeast of here. Cold enough for those showers in NE IA & the bluff country of WI for a mix tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 17 of 20 00z GFS ensemble members have MSN hitting freezing or below tomorrow night. The operational run is warmer than all the ensembles which is odd. http://www.nws.noaa....ens.pl?sta=KMSN Noice!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Cherry/apples going to be expensive this year Northern Lower just can't cut a break lately. Probably not, most of the fruit is grown in Washington, and in California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 GFS looks warm, one cool day and right back to the San Diego weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Looks like its pushed back Armageddon... Still mass devastation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Ha. Can't you just let us "ice P******" have one last gasp of fun!?!?!? You have had an extended period of fun with this craptastic winter and have 6 f-in months of fun coming up now. Jezus you don't kick a dog when its down.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 25, 2012 Author Share Posted March 25, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Another chance for a freeze/frosts at 288hr (Good Friday): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Looks like its pushed back Armageddon... Still mass devastation. Transient and modified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Transient and modified. Doesn't really matter if it's transient. You don't need a week of cold to do damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 It has been colder up this way in April. So yeah it is possible. Coldest ever April temp at Lansing for instance is -6. Latest 0 degree reading is April 18th i do believe. Down that way it could be different? I have not looked that closely at climo records there so not sure. Not saying we will get that cold. Just saying it has been even colder before and thus it is possible. Coldest April temp at Detroit is 8F on April 18, 1875. The only other April temps below 10 was 9F on April 4, 1874. Coldest temp post-1900 was 10F on April 7, 1982. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 I think we are getting a little ahead of ourselves here (for the 240+ stuff). Wasn't it just a few weeks ago that the models were showing a blossom-roasting freeze after that initial warm-up? The ensembles are all over the place, and the EC isn't really biting. Also, even if the GFS were to come pretty close, the ridiculous expanse of snow cover-free area would serve to moderate that airmass significantly this time of year. My WAG is that we'll see a glancing blow, but not anywhere near a 2007-esque plunge. The trend this year has been transient and/or glancing blows. I dont remember that at all. I just look at the 16-day GFS very passively, but one thing that stuck out to me was the lasting warmth and complete lack of sub-540 thicknesses. Actually, for a while it showed continuing torch for tomorrow/Tues when we will see highs/lows in the 40s/20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Can't you just let us "ice P******" have one last gasp of fun!?!?!? You have had an extended period of fun with this craptastic winter and have 6 f-in months of fun coming up now. Jezus you don't kick a dog when its down.. I agree there is nothing wrong with this thread. Its the same type of deal as the greenup thread. Dont worry though, IceP**** revenge may come in summer. Looking like a cool summer is a good possibility, which would cue a bunch of due trolling from the icep***** Sure summer will have hot days, just as winter had cold/snowy days.....but if days in the 70s overwhelm the JJA period it would be pure icep**** bliss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Transient and modified. from the 18z GFS last night yes . The GFS continuous showing of below zero 850s digging pretty far south at the end of the run for a few days now makes me think somethings coming up down the road. Time period is in question though, as it always seems too soon when the model first hints at it, but it could be a sign change lies ahead. It was showing continuous torch several days ago before it latched onto the cold idea, so a lot remains to be seen. But tomorrow a hard freeze is imminent, so we will see what this will do to agricultural interests. It will only be like 3-5 degrees below normal here, a good 10 degrees warmer than lows last year the last week of March, and 20+ degrees warmer than record lows, but if it was a month later (which is where the foliage is currently) it would be close to record cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Probably not, most of the fruit is grown in Washington, and in California. Are you kidding me? Fruit (esp apples/cherries) is a HUGE part of the MI economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 I dont remember that at all. I just look at the 16-day GFS very passively, but one thing that stuck out to me was the lasting warmth and complete lack of sub-540 thicknesses. Actually, for a while it showed continuing torch for tomorrow/Tues when we will see highs/lows in the 40s/20s. It pretty much showed this weekend as very cold. Well it's in the mid 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Just noticed that LAF is under a freeze watch tomorrow night. A little skeptical of temps getting that cold at this point as winds may stay up just enough with ridge axis sliding mainly east but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Are you kidding me? Fruit (esp apples/cherries) is a HUGE part of the MI economy. Yes, but 75+% of production is elsewhere. Michigan should not affect the prices that much. Most big stores ship in from other states, instead of buying from local areas. http://www.fas.usda....mber%202005.pdf http://usda01.librar...-06-21-2007.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iu2001grad Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 It seems that the past two weeks of warmth make the upcoming normal (maybe slightly below normal) late March/April weather seem colder. This "cold" air looks to be short lived followed by a warm up, with another shot of "cold" air followed by yet another warm up. It won't be 30 degrees above or below normal. It will be normal which will feel cold and could have some devastating effects as a result of the warm weather but in reality nothing that is coming up is extreme for the climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 freeze warning tonight for central and northern michigan, supposed to get down to 30, but tomorrow night will be worse down to 25 or so... I'm wondering how much damage this is going to do especially for nothern michigan's cherries... the lake warmth usually saves them from the freeze but being so early this year it may not... edit: anybody know if this is the earliest issued freeze warning ever? I'm thinking it should be with the incredible early unseasonal heat wave we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 freeze warning tonight for central and northern michigan, supposed to get down to 30, but tomorrow night will be worse down to 25 or so... I'm wondering how much damage this is going to do especially for nothern michigan's cherries... the lake warmth usually saves them from the freeze but being so early this year it may not... edit: anybody know if this is the earliest issued freeze warning ever? I'm thinking it should be with the incredible early unseasonal heat wave we've had. If there is cold air going over warm water during the day would that raise dew points near the lake? Then would the dew points stay high that night and keep it warmer? I though it was warmer near the lakes at night because of higher dew points instead of the actual flow itself during the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreatLakesWxMan Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 freeze warning tonight for central and northern michigan, supposed to get down to 30, but tomorrow night will be worse down to 25 or so... I'm wondering how much damage this is going to do especially for nothern michigan's cherries... the lake warmth usually saves them from the freeze but being so early this year it may not... edit: anybody know if this is the earliest issued freeze warning ever? I'm thinking it should be with the incredible early unseasonal heat wave we've had. It is because we never issue Frost/Freeze headlines earlier than the third or fourth week of April (climatology being what it is). Normally we wait until May...but this year's unusual weather kind of forced our hand as it relates to the major agricultural concerns (if Joe Public wanted to put their petunias out early...then they're just asking for trouble). We are only issuing Freeze Warnings...and we dropped our criteria locally from 32 to 28 (more closely aligned to the true definition of a hard freeze). If it turns out that we have a significant freeze over the next couple of nights...or we just get into a period where we are issuing these things every night for a week (i.e., climatology)...we will probably suspend the headlines until later in the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 If there is cold air going over warm water during the day would that raise dew points near the lake? Then would the dew points stay high that night and keep it warmer? I though it was warmer near the lakes at night because of higher dew points instead of the actual flow itself during the night. Right now on the west side of Lake Michigan the dewpoints are lower near the lake then inland. But the front moved in from the east northeast, so that's not surprising. I don't know if the lake really raises dewpoints, but their is more air movement over the open expanse of the lakes. The air movement and mixing helps keep temperatures up. Edit: The sheltered low lying areas are the most at risk for the coldest temperatures and hard freezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 It pretty much showed this weekend as very cold. Well it's in the mid 60s. It may have for one run or two showed it cooler than it was, but it never showed this weekend as very cold. That much I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 I know, right!!!! It doesnt matter if it warms to 60F in the day, nighttime temps that fall below 28F would be disaster to the month-early vegetation (id prefer a 30-32F spring snowstorm I'm rooting for your spring snowstorm, I think there is a chance around easter of a snowstorm and by then the leaves should be mostly on... will be a fun time to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 I know, right!!!! It doesnt matter if it warms to 60F in the day, nighttime temps that fall below 28F would be disaster to the month-early vegetation (id prefer a 30-32F spring snowstorm At least with a wet snow on the ground, would help protect ground plants. The trees wouldn't fair very well though! Agreed, one hard freeze for an hour or two is all that takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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